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The Madison Letter:

Weekly Update
by Staff Writers

October 31, 2014

We are invested on our overall Market Call. Since inception, our overall timing return is 71.49% versus 40.39% on the S&P 500 for excess return of 31.10%.

Madison scores on the major indexes are now mostly between +18 and +8. With a gap open this morning, we are getting overbought and setting up for a potential pullback. We need confirmation.

There is now one open position, a buy on TRF. We added a buy on iShares Core S&P 500 Index Fund ETF (IVV) and took gains on Tuesday 9/2. Recent open and closed ideas are now in the second table. New sells will be forthcoming as we find a near term top.

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 24 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results. We were left with one long position TRF from our original buys before launching with Uncommon Widsom Daily. This column replaces the Morning Matters on Fridays.

[Image 1]
Index Current
Status
Date
Open
Price
Open
Current
Price
Current
Rank
BUY
Point
Neutral
Point
SELL
Point
Details
S&P 500 1994.65 5.11 1841 1932 2023

DJIA 17195.42 16.03 15986 16557 17329

COMPQ 4566.14 13.68 4131 4389 4648

NASDAQ 100 4100.64 12.39 3714 3953 4191

VIX 14.52 -9.49 10.20 18.42 26.65

 

Other Open Signals Long
Short
Date
Open
Price
Open
Current
Price
Date
Closed
Price
Closed
Result %Result Details
IVV Long 08/6/14 193.39 201.80 8/29/14 201.80 8.41 4.35% Closed
TRF Long 04/18/11 22.58 11.22 -11.36 -50.31% Open

Year to Date performance of the Madison Letter:

We have moved to a new format highlighting all trades since inception. This will provide complete disclosure of all winning and losing trades. To visit go to the home page of www.themadisonletter.com.

Long Term Bull Market:

 

We entered a bear market in October 2007 and now have officially exited it as of May 2009. Alpha will be generated on the long side with a series of rallies and then pullbacks. Currently, we are in uptrend mode.

M Cubed Score

The Federal Reserve has been cutting rates as of Tuesday, September 18,2007 and our M Cubed Score is now a buy from sell. The yield curve is very positive with a spread of 183 basis points between the 2 year and 10 year (as of this update) while monetary growth annual rate of change is 3% (as of this update). The easing game is on again with QE3 thanks to recent economic data there will be no complete taper until late 2014 at the earliest. Expect interest rate rises in the second half of 2015.

Aggressive Trader Comments

We continue the uptrend phase with an positive bias. Sell the rips and buy the dips until the current bull ends.

 

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