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Morning Matters:

The Week Ahead For December 2nd-6th
by Geoff Garbacz

December 2, 2019

The NASDAQ 100 was higher for the week as well as the Russell 2000, Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 100.

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. None of note this week.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week and next include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims as well as Construction Spending, ISM Manufacturing Index, ADP Employment Report, ISM Non-Manufacturing Index, Factory Orders, Nonfarm Payroll and Unemployment Rate along with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases this upcoming week include COUP DSX CRM BMO RY SNPS TD DG BIG GCO.

Monday, December 2

October Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.3% from 0.5%.

November ISM Manufacturing is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 49.2 from 48.3.

Tuesday, December 3

November ADP Employment is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 175,000 from 125,000.

November Non-ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 54.8 from 54.7.

Copa Holdings (COPA) holds its analyst meeting and is a Type 4 Long Squeeze.

Wednesday, December 4

November ADP Employment is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to come in at 175,000 from 125,000.

November Non-ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 54.8 from 54.7.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) is out with its latest rate announcement and no rate increase or decrease is expected.

Ultra Clean Holdings (UCTT) holds its analyst meeting and is a Type 1 Short Squeeze. We would not play this as a short squeeze given that 50% of the time when short selling is heavy like it is now the shorts on average make 31.8%. Thursday, December 5

October Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to remain at 0.3%.

Wells Fargo (WFC) is a Type 1 Short Squeeze. On average, the shorts get squeezed 80% of the time. When the shorts are squeezed, they lose 10.90% on average and so far the shorts have been squeezed by 11.94% so the upside to a short squeeze has been played out.

Friday, December 6

November Nonfarm Payrolls are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 182,000 from128,000 while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 3.6%.

December University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 96.5 from 96.8.

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