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Morning Matters:

The Secret
by Geoff Garbacz

June 27, 2018

There is a great forecasting tool we use to predict when volatility in the form of downside price action is about to return. What is it? Read on.

Simple we track the following moving averages on a daily basis:

5 10 20 50 100 150 200

When these are separated, we have a strong market. Witness August of 2017 into year end.

[Image 1]

When the get close together and start to see their slope turn lower, then good night Irene.

[Image 2]

That is where we are right now. Notice I have circled other times this year that we have seen a similar condition. We will know that the worst is behind us when the moving averages again have separation like they did in the second half of 2017.

Until then, be patient.

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