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Morning Matters:

Morning Matters Portfolio Update
by Geoff Garbacz

May 4, 2018

For 2018, the S&P 500 is lower by -1.64% for 2018. So far this year the Morning Matters Portfolio is higher by 0.17%. The Russell 2000 is higher for the year by 0.72%. The Nasdaq Composite is now above 7000 since our last update. The Dow remains above 23500 since our last update. February and March were VERY volatile months and April has continued that trend. Will May calm down?

The portfolio is now 58% invested long, 0% short and 42% in cash, net long 58%. For 2017, the value of the portfolio was 970.84%. So far in 2018, the portfolio value is now 972.14%.

Since 2008 when we began this portfolio, we have had two losing years 2011 and 2016 which was filled with lots of geopolitical issues similar to 2011. In 2012, we started a run that was up 10.09% into this year.

We expect another such run will happen. The portfolio is now into early April and hanging tough.

Below are the year by year results on a cumulative and absolute basis:

[Image 5]

It appears for now that 2600 on the S&P 500 has become support and 2650 resistance. We are now at 2629.73 which is lower than from our last update. The big question for year end was do we blow through 2800? We noted in October, "...looks like 2600 is doable before year end if not 2700". We did. For 2018 the big number is 2800 and ultimately 3000 and maybe 3100.

We have added the price target from the Stock Scorecard into the weekly update. Names above price targets are highlighted in yellow. We will remain with these names as well until technical violations begin.

ETFs recommendations can be found in The Madison Letter. Since 2014, this has been updated each week with Market Crash Indicators.

Remember these returns are total returns with the average change for all winners and losers is 8.13% per idea. Our batting average of closed winners and losers is 70%. The portfolio is up to a value of 975% and from inception when it began at 0% in April of 2008.

We have never added in dividends unless a special dividend is declared, so our weekly results are understated since 2008.

The Russell 2000 is now outperforming the S&P 500 again on a daily basis. The Madison Letter is now invested and the A/D line signal is back to cash after a brief period of invested.

[Image 1] [Image 2] [Image 3] [Image 4]

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