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Morning Matters:

The Technicals On Assured Guaranty
by Geoff Garbacz

April 24, 2018

We will look at Assured Guaranty (AGO) and its technical and sentiment patterns.

From a sentiment standpoint, the stock is heavily shorted with an Erlanger Short Intensity of 89%. Historically, shorts make money when the short selling is heavy or above 80%. 55.6% when heavily shorted the short make an average of 9.10%. This occurs typically over 68 days. So far the short selling has been heavy for 123 days and the shorts have made only 0.36%.

Seasonally, the stock continues higher to May 14th before seeing weakness until June 28th. From there, the stock goes higher into year end. In terms of options activity, there is neither excessive put or call activity.

Technically, the stock has fallen from $45 to $35. Key to the stock's future is holding above $35. It remains below its 200 day moving average but is sitting on its 65 day moving average.

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