Wednesday, December 21, 2022

Morning Matters:

Weekly Chart of S&P 500

Second, the Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) is at 17.48 from 10.65 last week. Above 0 is good and below 0 is bad. The current action is now positive.

Third, the Erlanger Crossover Spread (EC) Spread moves to 16.63 from 72.08.

Last, the Erlanger Trend Direction (ETD) moves from uptrend to pullback.

So what is an investor to do here? We would recommend taking partial new positions on longs and look to add some shorts with tight stops if the rally fades.

We are 75% invested in our Morning Matter Portfolio.

Market Matters:

The Christmas Miracle, A Rally That Lasts Two Day On Nike and Fedex Earnings Reports

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday up 0.10% at 3821.62 from Monday at 3817.66 (lower by -0.90%).  The overnight high of 3876 was hit at 8:50 p.m. EST. The low was hit at 3857.50 at 3:15 a.m. EST, a range of ~19 points high to low.  At 7:15 a.m. EST, the S&P 500 (mini) was +19.

Earnings Out After The Close: 

• Beats: FDX +0.36, NKE +0.20, BB +0.02, AIR +0.01.
• Flat: None of note.
• Misses: CVGW (0.29), WOR (0.17).

Unusual Options Activity:

Daily Screen in Erlanger Chartroom that highlights unusual Call and Put Options activity.  It looks for volume outliers relative to the Open interest in Calls or puts.  Usually, the stock price activity reflects the outlier situation (earnings/buyout/announcement), but once in awhile you can uncover stocks prior to a pop or drop.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
• New SPACs launched/News:
  • Oragenics, Inc. (OGEN) Receives NYSE American Notice.
  • Parabellum Acquisition Corp. (PRBM) Announces Stockholder Approval of Extension Amendment to the Amended and Restated Certificate of Incorporation.
• Secondaries Priced:
  • TERN: Announces Pricing of $75 Million Public Offering of 10,350,000 shares of its common stock at $7.25 per share.
• Notes Priced of note: None of note.
• Common Stock filings/Notes:
  • AGFY: Closing of $8.7 Million Public Offering.
  • ICCM: Announces Proposed Public Offering.
• Direct Offering: None of note.
• Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
• Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • DLA: Filed Form S-3.. $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
  • VTYX: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf.
• Debt Filing/Notes: None of note.
• Tender Offer: None of note.
• Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

• After Hours: 
  • Trading Up: NKE +11%, CAMP +7%, BOC +4%.
  • Trading Down: ICCM -15%, CVGW -14%, WOR -5%.

• News Since The Close:
  • Dow closes higher to end four-day losing streak.
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) to expand manufacturing in Silicon Valley, Texas. (MarketWatch)
  • Boeing (BA) awarded $2.02 billion U.S. Navy contract.
  • Lockheed Martin’s (LMT) Sikorsky Aircraft awarded $677 million U.S. Navy contract.
  • FedEx (FDX), Polar Air Cargo (AAWW), and UPS (UPS) awarded $2.24 billion U.S. Transportation Command contract.
  • NFL in Advanced Talks With Google’s Youtube (GOOGL) for ‘Sunday Ticket’ Rights Deal. (WSJ)

• Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
  • Delisting of Securities from The Nasdaq Stock Market:
    • PhaseBio Pharmaceuticals, Inc.
    • Zovio Inc.
    • Fast Radius, Inc.
    • Kismet Acquisition Three Corp.
  • Acorda Therapeutics (ACOR) Receives Nasdaq Listing Determination Letter and Plans to Request a Hearing.
  • Associated Banc-Corp (ASB) announces executive leadership appointment.
  • Boston Omaha’s Broadband (BOC) Subsidiary Announces Max Meisinger as its Chief Financial Officer.
  • Core Scientific (CORZ) Voluntarily Files For Reorganization Under Chapter 11.
  • Grove (GROV) Announces Receipt of Continued Listing Standards Notice from NYSE.
  • Lightpath Technologies (LPTH) Announces Change to the Board’s Leadership.
  • Mitek (MITK) Announces Receipt of Notice from Nasdaq.
  • RNWK Halt – Additional Information Requested by NASDAQ.
  • RIVN: Harald Kroeger has resigned from the Board.
  • Skillz (SKLZ) Receives Notice of Non-Compliance with NYSE Trading Share Price Listing Rule.
  • Vimeo (VMEO) President Mark Kornfilt notified the Company of his intention to resign.
  • Workday (WDAY) Appoints Carl Eschenbach to Co-CEO. (MarketWatch)
• Buyback Announcements or News:
  • Fulton Financial Corporation (FULT) Announces $100 Million Stock Repurchase Program. (see Dividends)
  • First Internet Bancorp (INBK) Authorizes Stock Repurchase Program for $25 million. (see Dividends)
  • HBT Financial, Inc. (HBT) Announces Authorization of New $15 Million Stock Repurchase Program.
  • NKE: Share repurchases of $1.6 billion, reflecting 16.5 million retired shares as part of the four-year, $18 billion program approved by the Board of Directors in June 2022. As of November 30, 2022, a total of 19.0 million shares have been repurchased under the program for a total of approximately $1.9 billion.
  • SITE Centers (SITC) Announces New $100 Million Common Stock Repurchase Plan.
  • Universal Insurance (UVE) authorizes up to $8.0 million for share repurchases.
• Stock Splits or News:
  • CEI trading r/s price.
  • HTG (HTGM) Announces One-for-Twelve Reverse Stock Split.
• Dividends Announcements or News:
  • BitNile Holdings (NILE) Declares Monthly Cash Dividend of $0.2708333 Per Share of 13.00% Series D Cumulative Redeemable Perpetual Preferred Stock.
  • Camden National Corporation (CAC) Announces a 5% Increase in its Fourth Quarter 2022 Dividend.
  • Fulton Financial Corporation (FULT) Announces Quarterly Dividends.
  • First Internet Bancorp (INBK) to Pay Cash Dividend.
  • Frequency Electronics, Inc. (FEIM) Declares Special Cash Dividend of $1.00 Per Share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 +24, Dow Jones +281,  NASDAQ +54,  and Russell 2000 +14. (as of 7:57 a.m. EST).  Asian markets are lower ex the ASX 200.  Europe markets are trading higher. VIX Futures are at 23.55 from 24.12.  Gold and Silver lower with Copper higher.  WTI Crude Oil and Brent higher with Natural Gas higher as well. $ barely down. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 3.67% from 3.649% from 3.541%. The U.S. Dollar is flat versus the Euro, lower versus the Pound and higher against the Yen. Bitcoin is at $16,844 from $16,830 lower by -0.26%.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

• Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Basic Materials, Financial, Communication Services of note.
• Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Real Estate of note.
• One Month Winners:  Healthcare, Utilities, Consumer Defensive of note.
• Three Month Winners: Basic Materials, Industrials, and Healthcare of note.
• Six Month Winners: Industrials, Energy, Healthcare of note.
• Twelve Month Winners: Energy,  of note.
• Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stock indexes and bond yields rose after the Bank of Japan surprised investors by raising the cap on a benchmark rate, inching away from its ultrarelaxed monetary policies.  The S&P 500 added 3.96 points, or 0.1%, to 3821.62, on Tuesday. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.08 points, or less than 0.1%, to 10547.11. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 92.20 points, or 0.3%, to 32849.74.  The major indexes on Tuesday broke a four-session losing streak. Out of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500, consumer discretionary, consumer staples, healthcare and real estate traded lower. Energy and materials stocks were the biggest gainers. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Wednesday After the Close: MU, MLKN of note.
• Thursday Before the Open: PAYX, KMX, APOG of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: RAD +0.17.
• Flat: None of note.
• Misses: None of note.
• Still to Report: CCL, CTAS, TTC.

Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: None of note.
• Negative Guidance: FDX of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

• Gap Up: ADCT +25%, NKE +12%, RAD +8%, FDX +4% of note.
• Gap Down: ICCM -14%, CVGW -14%, TERN -8%, AIR -6%, NVX -5% of note.

Insider Action: BCTX sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: RAD NKE FDX SIX HTZ BB SBUX  (CNBC)
• 5 things to know before the stock market opens. (CNBC)
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg Lead Story: Zelenskiy to visit U.S. and plea for more aid. (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg Most Read Story: Musk will resign as CEO of Twitter and focus on engineering. (Bloomberg)
• Senate passes funding bill in a procedural measure with the final vote today. (Politico)
• Tesla (TSLA) to announce hiring freeze and implement layoffs. (Electrek)

Moving Average Update:

• Score remains at 5%…..day 2.

Geopolitical: 

• President’s Public Schedule:
  • The President receives the Presidential Daily Briefing, 9:00 a.m. EST
  • The President welcomes President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine to the White House, 2:00 p.m. EST
  • The President holds a bilateral meeting with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, 2:30 p.m. EST
  • The President hosts a joint press conference with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine, 4:30 p.m. EST

Economic: 

• MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST
  • US MBA Market Index For Dec 16 Week +0.9% At 212.5; Prev Week 210.7
  • Applications Dec 16: 0.9% (prev 3.2%) – US MBA 30-Yr Mortgage Rate Dec 16: 6.34% (prev 6.42%)
  • Composite: +0.9%, Purchase: -0.1%, ReFi: +6%
• Current Account 8:30 a.m. EST
• December Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 p.m. EST and is expected to rise to 101 from 100.20.
• November Existing Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 4.20 million from 4.43 million.
• EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

• None of note.

M&A Activity:

• American Equity (AEL) Rejects Unsolicited Acquisition Proposal from Prosperity Group Holdings LP and Elliott Investment Management L.P.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:
  • None of note.
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
      • Mizuho CES Outlook Series: Semis and Autos.

• Company Meetings: APM, ATEK.
• Fireside Chat: None of note.
• Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: MBOT.
• Update: None of note.
• R&D Day: None of note.
• Company Event: None of note.
• Industry Meetings:
  • None of note.
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
      • BIO Partnering Conference

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

Chubb Limited (CB)
by Superstock Investor

Stock Scorecard      Scorecard Glossary

This stock has been selected as today's example of the Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard. Company Information Company: Chubb Limited Sector: Insurance Industry: Property & Casualty Insurance Market Cap:  $70,940,000,000 Targets   Price %Gain   Current Price $193.56     Price Target $130.23 -0.1%   Upper Bound $162.79 0.1%   Lower Bound $97.67 -0.3%   Stock data last updated 07/11/2022. Data provided by QPI, Inc. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. QPI, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.

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