Wednesday, November 09, 2022

Morning Matters:

Market Crash Indicators Updated

For years we published our Market Crash Indicators Model. It is back. Currently, we are 100% invested in stocks and 0% in cash. The model going forward will be a combination of stocks, bonds or cash.

We are 100% invested.

The model rose 0.55% since our last update on 10/28 close while the S&P 500 also rose 0.55%.

The S&P 500 has risen 6.56% and we have lost -3.27% from since we restarted the indicator.

Market Matters:

No Red Wave. House Looks To Turn To GOP But Not Called Yet. Senate Too Close To Call. Stocks Modestly Lower.

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 3828.11 (higher by 0.56%) from Monday at 3806.80 (higher by 0.96%).  The overnight high of 3848.75 was hit at 8:45 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 3812 at 5:20 a.m. EDT, a range of 37 points high to low which is below the recent range of 45.  At 7:15 a.m. EDT, the S&P 500 was lower by -8 points at 3827.50 which is -0.21%.

Breaking News: Meta (META) to layoff 11,000 workers. (CNBC)

Earnings Out After The Close: 

• Beats: VVNT +0.58, MRTX +0.39, IOSP +0.33, HALO +0.23, ICHR +0.23, NEWR +0.19, NTRA +0.19, RAMP +0.13, INO +0.12, SILK +0.12, MRC +0.11, AXON +0.11, OSUR +0.10, SFM +0.10, PRI +0.08, ARLO +0.08, ARRY +0.08, MASI +0.08, OXY +0.07, HCAT +0.06, ALRM +0.05, GXO +0.05, JKHY +0.05, NOG +0.05, AMC +0.05, WTI +0.05, ZD +0.05, AKAM +0.04, ENV +0.03, GDRX +0.03, BIRD +0.03, DDD +0.03, ABCL +0.03, AFRM +0.02, CLNE +0.02, HRTX +0.01, SEER +0.01, MODN +0.01, GO +0.01.
• Flat: GEN +0.00, NHI +0.00, DOX +0.00.
• Misses: NVAX (3.74), EBS (1.14), VSAT (0.74), NVTA (0.43), FNF (0.39), AMRS (0.36), SUPN (0.33), DAR (0.27), DIS (0.26), IAC (0.26), PRA (0.26), SG (0.22), UPST (0.16), TWO (0.15), FLYW (0.14), LMND (0.12), LCID (0.10), LFST (0.10), PLUG (0.08), EOLS (0.07), PUBM (0.07), XENE (0.06), DV (0.05), BLNK (0.04), CARG (0.04), OPK (0.03), GMED (0.02), ANGI (0.02), CRCT (0.01), NWSA (0.01), SRC (0.01), KIND (0.01).

Capital Raises:

• IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
• New SPACs launched/News:
  • Athlon Acquisition Corp. (SWET) announces plans to redeem all outstanding common stock included in IPO at ~$10.06/share after failing to consummate business combination.
• Secondaries Priced:
  • TDW: Pricing of Public Offering of Common Stock. 3,987,914 shares @$30.25
• Notes Priced of note:
  • ZTS: Pricing of $1.35 Billion of Senior Notes.
• Common Stock filings/Notes:
  • BXRX: Filed Form S-1 Common Stock and Warrants.
  • TDW: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock.. 3,987,914 shares.
• Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
• Direct Offering: None of note.
• Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
• Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE):
  • LCID: Entered into an “at-the-market” program and announces additional investment of up to $915 million by an affiliate of PIF.
  • VRAX: Closing of $3.8 Million Private Placement.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • • AVRO: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • CHRS: Filed Form S-3.. $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • NPCE: Filed Form S-3.. $150 Million Mixed Shelf.
    • OMGA: Filed Form S-3.. $200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
    • TCRX: Filed Form S-3.. $250,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
• Debt Filing/Notes:
  • BBBY: Announces Privately Negotiated Senior Notes Exchange and Concurrent Private Placement of Common Stock..
• Tender Offer: None of note.
• Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close:

• After Hours: 
  • Trading Up: RAMP +15%, ARRY +14%, DV +11%, HCAT +8%, AXON +8%, OSUR +7%, BIRD +7%, SFM +7%, ABCL +6%, ICHR +5%, NTRA +5%, XP +4%, GXO +4%, HALO +4%.
  • Trading Down: UPST -25%, AMRS -23%, CARG -20%, AFRM -17%, EBS -13%, LCID -11%, PUBM -11%, LCID -11%, AVID -10%, SG -10%, ARLO -10%, GDRX -10%, DIS -7%, JKHY -6%, OPK -6%, KIND -5%, VSAT -5%, DAR -4%, TDW -4%.

• News Since The Close:
  • Meta’s (META) Mark Zuckerberg Says He Is Accountable as Company Preps for Mass Layoffs. (WSJ)
  • Coinbase Global (COIN) releases statement; says “We are in a strong capital position. Our public, audited financials confirm that we do not have a liquidity problem.” (Release)
  • AMC stock tumbles after reporting 12th consecutive quarterly loss. (MarketWatch)
  • Disney (DIS) misses on profit and key revenue segments, warns streaming growth could taper. (CNBC)
  • CarGurus (CARG) stock dives as fourth-quarter forecast comes up well short of expectations. (MarketWatch)
  • Assets Under Management (AUM) – October: CNS $80 billion +$773 Million.

• Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
  • Aadi Bioscience (AADI) Announces Planned Leadership Transition.
  • Argo Group (ARGO) Mails Letter to Shareholders Highlighting the Strength of its Refreshed, Highly Qualified Board.
  • CEVA, Inc. (CEVA) Announces CEO Transition Plan,
  • Elme Communities (ELME) Announces CFO Succession Plan.
  • Grocery Outlet Holding Corp. (GO) Announces CEO Transition.
  • Independence Realty Trust (IRT) COO Ella Neyland to depart.
  • Mirati Therapeutics (MRTX) appoints Alan Sandler, M.D., to the position of executive vice president and chief medical officer.
  • Quanergy (QNGY) Confirms Delisting Notice from NYSE.
  • Tata Motors (TTM) announces intent to delist its American Depositary Shares (ADS) from the NYSE after January 2023 and terminate its ADS program.
  • Wolverine Worldwide (WWW) Announces New Brand Group Structure and Leadership Roles to Support Future Growth.
• Buyback Announcements or News:
  • Aflac Incorporated (AFL) (see Dividend)
  • Capri Holdings (CPRI) authorized new $1 billion share repurchase program.
  • Magna (MGA) may purchase up to 28,445,000 Magna Common Shares representing ~10% of its public float.
  • XP increases share repurchase authorization by R$1 billion.
• Stock Splits or News:
  • Ampio Pharmaceuticals (AMPE) Announces Fifteen-to-One Reverse Stock Split.
  • Babylon (BBLN) Announces 1-for-25 Reverse Share Split.
  • Conformis, Inc. (CFMS) Effects 1-for-25 Reverse Stock Split.
• Dividends Announcements or News:
  • Aflac Incorporated (AFL) Announces 5.0% Increase in the First Quarter 2023 Dividend to $0.42 per share, Increase in Shares Authorized for Repurchase by 100 million common shares.
  • Fidelity National (FNF) intends to pay quarterly cash dividends on its common stock at an initial aggregate amount of approximately $100 million per year.
  • National Bank (NBHC) increases quarterly dividend $0.02 to $0.25 per share.
  • Phillips 66 (PSX) Outlines Plans to Increase Shareholder Distributions.
  • Permian Resources (PR) declared an initial quarterly cash dividend of $0.05 per share.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -5, Dow Jones -82,  NASDAQ -9, and Russell 2000 -4. (as of 8:11 a.m. EDT). Europe lower and Asia lower as well.  VIX Futures are at 26.30 from 25.05 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 25.38 from 24.35 yesterday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures are lower with Natural Gas lower as well. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10-year Treasury sees yields at 4.128% from 4.212%  yesterday. Bitcoin is at $17,775 from $19,740 Tuesday morning and is lower by -2.65% this morning.

Sector Action – (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

• Daily Positive Sectors: Basic Materials, Technology, Industrials, Utilities, Financial of note.
• Daily Negative Sectors: Energy of note.
• One Month Winners:  Energy, Industrials, Consumer Defensive of note.
• Three Month Winners:  Energy of note.
• Six Month Winners: Energy of note.
• Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities of note.
• Year to Date Winners: Energy of note.

U.S. stock indexes finished ahead on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of midterm elections, which are expected to result in a divided government.  Stocks rallied in the morning before the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite briefly fell into the red in afternoon trading. They rallied again before market close, though they pared their earlier gains. The S&P rose 21.31 points, or 0.6%, to 3,828.11. The Nasdaq Composite added 51.68 points, or 0.5%, to 10,616.20. (WSJ)

Click here for a video explanation of Erlanger Value Lines.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Wednesday After the Close: RIVN, MFC, CPNG, STE, ATO, FICO, JAZZ, U, TTEK, SGFY, CELH, APP, WYNN, BROS, SWCH, LNW, BMBL, KGC, ROG, MQ, PAAS, RNG, JXN, JAMF, ENS, IPAR, NUVA, VZIO, TTEC, TTGT, FORG, IRBT, APPS, ZNTL, STKL, CDE, RXT, GDOT, NVTS, EGIO, RPAY, RDFN, COOK, VUZI, PETQ, ZIMV, PLBY of note.
• Thursday Before the Open: AZN, BDX, BAM, TDG, MT, NICE, WRK, TPR, XRAY, USFD, RL, CAE, DDS, IAA, YETI, PRMW, UTZ, SGHC, WRBY, SIX, DGII, SBH, DCBO, PSFE, HIMX, SSYS, SHCR, KELYA, HNST of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: HGV +0.47, IONS +0.37, PFGC +0.28, ZNTL +0.25, CPRI +0.25, COHR +0.21, LTH +0.20, FVRR +0.16, NOMD +0.14, RSKD +0.11, IMXI +0.09, SPTN +0.08, TRP +0.08, CRBG +0.07, PERI +0.06, KRNT +0.05, STER +0.03, TTD +0.03, VERX +0.02, HBI +0.02, GIB +0.01, OLPX +0.01, WEN +0.01.
• Flat: HL +0.00, CEVA +0.00.
• Misses: BGNE (1.62), WD (0.65), DHI (0.46), MSGE (0.34), CGC (0.21), BHG (0.20), MIDD (0.18), SEAS (0.14), ALE (0.11), TBLA (0.08), WWW (0.07), RDNT (0.07), TPG (0.07), EBIX (0.06), DIBS (0.05), AG (0.05), HR (0.04), VCEL (0.04), PAR (0.03), RCI (0.02), COCO (0.02), STWD (0.01).
• Still to Report: RBLX, TGNA.

Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: KSS, AXON, ARRY, OSUR, GO, SFM, SILK, FLYW, MODN, VVNT, RAMP, RSKD, SPTN of note.
• Negative Guidance: NVAX, CARG, DOX, SG, AFRM, MASI, GDRX, UPST, ENV, ARLO, EBS, PUBM, DDD, LFST, AMRS, AVID, AKAM, TTD, WWW, BHG, DIBS, HBI, TBLA of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: 

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

• Gap Up: ARRY +20%, RAMP +18%, OSUR +10%, HCAT +9%, SFM +9%, ABCL +9%, ICHR +9%, AXON +8%, NVTA +8%, BIRD +7%, SILK +6%, DV +6%, GXO +5%, PERI +5%, CRCT +5%, ZD +5%, MRTX +4%, HALO +4%.
• Gap Down: AMRS -26%, UPST -26%, CARG -21%, AFRM -15%, EBS -14%, GDRX -11%, NWSA -9%, LCID -8%, AVID -8%, DIS -8%, PUBM -7%, TDW -6%, JKHY -6%, ARLO -5%, MARA -5%, XENE -5%, COIN -5%, SG -5%, SNCR -4%, AMC -4%, WD -4%, WTI -4%, CEVA -4%.

Insider Action: NSA sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  GTLB sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: TSLA, META, DHI, DIS, AFRM, UPST, AMC, LCID, AXON, SFM (CNBC)
• 5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Wednesday. (CNBC)
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg Lead Story: GOPs Gain Is Short Of Wave as  Biden Dodges Worst-Case. (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg Most Read Story: Rise of Russian hardliners sows fears of Putin’s elite. (Bloomberg)
• Wall Street Journal Review of Mid-Terms. (WSJ)
• New York Times Review of Mid-Terms, Congress Hinges on Closely Watched Races. (NYT)
• Opinion: Why the GOP Rout Fell Short. (NYT)
• TikTok slashes ad sales target by $2 billion as tech slows. (Bloomberg)
• Mid-Term Results Update sees House likely to turn to GOP with Senate too close to call. (CNBC)
• Election takeaways – Trump’s bad night, DeSantis good night. (Bloomberg)
• U.S. Mortgage Rates pop to 7.14% which is the highest level since 2001. (Bloomberg)
• Elon Musk sells $3.95 billion share of Tesla (TSLA) as he buy Twitter. (CNBC)

Moving Average Update:

• Score inches up 3% to 57%.

Geopolitical: 

• President’s Public Schedule:
  • None of note.

Economic: 

• MBA Mortgage Applications, 7:00 a.m. EST

   

  • 30-year Mortgage Rate Actual: 7.14% Vs 7.06% Previous
  • Mortgage Applications (Wow) Actual: -0.1% Vs -0.5% Previous
  • Composite: -0.1%, Purchase: +1.3%, ReFi: -3.5%
• Wholesale Inventories, 10:00 a.m. EST
• EIA Petroleum Report, 10:30 a.m. EST
• The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is due out after the close for data from October 12th through the 27th. During that period, the S&P 500 rose 6.44%.

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

• Federal Reserve New York President John Williams, 4:00 a.m. EST

   

  • Very Important That Fed Delivers 2% Inflation.
  • Inflation is Clearly Far Above Fed’s Long Run Goal.
• Federal Reserve Richmond President Thomas Barkin, 11:00 p.m. EST

M&A Activity:

• Chart Industries, Inc. (GTLS) to Acquire Howden.
• Greif (GEF) to Acquire Lee Container for $300 million.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:
  • BAC Securities A.I. and Disruptive Tech Conference 
  • BMO Capital Markets BioPharma Spotlight Series: Oncology Day 2022
  • Cowen Post-Election Forum 
  • Deutsche Bank Global Space Summit 2022 (11/09/22-11/10/22)
  • Goldman Sachs Global Natural Resources Conference 2022
  • JP Morgan Digital Twin Seminar Series 2022 (11/09/22-11/10/22)
  • Morgan Stanley Global EdTech Conference 2022
  • Morgan Stanley P&C Fixed Income Investor Conference 2022
  • Raymond James Insurance Conference 
  • Stifel Midwest One-on-One Growth Conference 2022 (11/09/22-11/10/22)
  • Sidoti & Company LLC Micro-Cap Virtual Investor Conference 2022 (11/09/22-11/10/22)
  • Truist West Coast Bus Tour 

     

    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
      • Baird 52nd Annual Global Industrial Conference 2022 (11/08/22-11/10/22)
      • Credit Suisse 31st Annual Healthcare Conference 2022 (11/07/22-11/10/22)
      • Credit Suisse Brazilian Private Companies
      • MS Global Chemicals, Agriculture, and Packaging Conf (11/08/22-11/09/22)
      • Piper East Coast Financial Services Conference (11/08/22-11/09/22)
      • UBS European Conference 2022 (11/08/22-11/10/22)
      • Wolfe Research Wealth Symposium (11/08/22-11/09/22)
      • Daiwa Investment Conference 2022 (11/07/22-11/15/22)
      • Financial Times Global Pharma and Biotech Summit 2022 (11/07/22-11/09/22)
      • Bank of America Securities China Conference 2022 (10/31/22-11/11/22)
• Company Meetings: ADP, CAH, FTAI, MCAE
• Fireside Chat: WES.
• Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: ARWR, BCOV, DFS, ESPR, FRC, OKTA, PCOR, PSX
• Update: None of note.
• R&D Day:
  • Esperion Therapeutics (ESPR) R&D Day 2022.
• Company Event: None of note.
• Industry Meetings:
  • AARC Congress 2022 – Respiratory (11/09/22-11/12/22)
  • 21st Annual Energy Litigation Conference 2022
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
      • Swiss Mining Institute Forum 2022 (11/08/22-11/10/22)
      • Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer SITC 37th Annual Meeting 2022 (11/08/22-11/12/22)
      • Transport Logistics Americas 2022 (11/08/22-11/10/22)
      • Zoomtopia (11/08/22-11/09/22)
      • BioFuture2022 (11/07/22-11/09/22)
      • Recent Advances in Fermentation Technology (RAFT14) (11/06/22-11/09/22)

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

Sprouts Farmers Markets, Inc. (SFM)
by Geoff Garbacz

Stock Scorecard      Scorecard Glossary

Sprouts Farmers Market is in rally mode. It is up 8% in after hours. The closing price yesterday was $28.67. Company Information Company: Sprouts Farmers Markets, Inc. Sector: Food & Staples Retailing Industry: Food Retail Market Cap:  $2,490,000,000 Targets   Price %Gain   Current Price $26.51     Price Target $19.43 -0.1%   Upper Bound $24.29 0.1%   Lower Bound $14.58 -0.4%   Stock data last updated 07/11/2022. Data provided by QPI, Inc. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. QPI, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.

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