Monday, August 22, 2022

Morning Matters:

The Week Ahead

Major stock indexes fell this past week, making it down thirteen of the last twenty weeks for the S&P 500.

Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. The key issue remains how the Russian invasion of Ukraine progresses with the nuclear reactor issue at Zaporizhzhia. Washington remains quiet with summer vacations into September. The latest short interest for NYSE and NASDAQ is due out on Wednesday after the close, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will speak on Friday from Jackson Hole at the Federal Reserve of Kansas City Jackson Hole Symposium.

Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and New Home Sales, Durable Orders, Pending Home Sales, GDP Q2 (second update), Personal Income, PCE Prices - Core and University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment.

Earning Releases. Notable release this upcoming week include PANW ZM (Monday), INTU MDT (Tuesday), NVDA CRM (Wednesday), TD DG CM (Thursday) and JKS (Friday).

Monday, August 22nd

None of note.

Tuesday, August 23rd

July New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to come in at 580,000 from 590,000.

Wednesday, August 24th

July Durable Orders are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to come in at 0.60% from 1.90%.

July Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to improve to -3.0% from -8.6% in June.

The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest data from July 27th through August 11th are due out after the close. During this period, the S&P 500 rose 4.56%.

Thursday, August 25th

Q2 GDP (second estimate) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to remain at -0.90%.

Friday, August 26th

July Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to remain at 0.6%.

August University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (final) is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to remain at 55.10.

Market Matters:

Stock Futures Friday Selling Continues Into Monday, Will Fed Reset On Friday At Jackson Hole

Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Friday at 4228.48% (lower by -1.28%) while Thursday closed at 4283.74 (higher by 0.23%).  The overnight high of 4221.50 was hit at 6:05 p.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4175.50 at 5:40 a.m. EDT, a range of 47 points high to low which is around the range of late with 45 the average range. At 7:15 a.m. EDT the current price was 4186.50 which is -1.06% and -45 points.  Currently, at 8:00 a.m. EDT the S&P 500 is now down -47 points.

Earnings Out After The Close:

• Beats: None of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Misses: None of note.

Capital Raises:

• IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
• New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
• Secondaries Priced:
  • Assure Holdings Corp. (IONM) Prices $6.2 Million Underwritten Public Offering of Common Stock.
• Notes Priced of note: None of note.
• Common Stock filings/Notes:
  • ADXN: Filed Form F-1.. Up to 4,250,000 American Depositary Shares Representing 25,500,000 Shares.
  • GRFX: Closing of Upsized $11.7 Million Public Offering and NYSE American Listing.
  • KRBP: Filed Form RW.
  • RVLP: Filed Form S-3.. 15,451,612 Ordinary Shares.
  • WTM:  to commence self-tender offer to purchase up to $500 million in value of its common shares.
• Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
• Direct Offering: None of note.
• Selling Shareholders of note:
  • DSX: Filed Form F-3.. 18,487,395 shares of Common Stock offered by Selling Stockholders.
  • INST: See mixed shelf offerings below.
• Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
• Mixed Shelf Offerings:
  • FOCS: Filed From S-3ASR – Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • HCWB: Filed Form S-3.. $100 Million Mixed Security Shelf.
  • INST: Filed Form S-3.. $800,000,000 Mixed Shelf — 122,065,804 Shares of Common Stock by the Selling Stockholders.
  • KDP: Filed Form S-3ASR — Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • PBLA: Filed Form S-1.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • SKYT: Filed Form S-3.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
  • TMDI: Filed Form F-3.. $90,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • TNXP: Filed Form S-3.. $300,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
  • VIAV: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Shelf Offering.
• Debt Filing:
  • FFIC: Closing of $65.0 Million of Fixed-to-Floating Rate Subordinated Notes.
  • LUV: Announces Redemption Of 4.750% Notes Due 2023.
• Convertible Offering & Notes Filed: None of note.

Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.

News After The Close and Over the Week:

• Weekly Wrap Up: Best and Worst performing large cap stocks:
  • Trading Up: RGS 119%, TISI 52%, PRTY 48%, FL 22%, CGC 14%, RYTM 14%, BTU 12%, GEL 11%, CAMP 11%, ESPR 10%, OXM 10%, GTX 9%, HOLI 9%, SIBN 9%, DCP 8%, TXMD 8%, JT 8%, TELL 8%.
  • Trading Down: AXDX -36%, NVTA -34%, RAD -29%, PACB -28%, TPIC -27%, DVAX -26%, STNE -24%, ATRA -24%, MGNX -23%, EDIT -21%, BBBY -19%, TREE -19%, FTCH -19%, SENS -19%, CVNA -19%.

• News Items After the Close:
  • Japan reports 261,029 new coronavirus cases, the biggest one-day increase so far, with daily deaths at a record-high of 256.
  • Some Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY) Suppliers Halt Shipments on Unpaid Bills. (Bloomberg)
  • Wendy’s Restaurants (WEN) linked to e. Coli outbreak, CDC.  22 of 26 people interviewed by CDC ate at Wendy’s within week.
  • General Electric (GE), GE Edison Works, has been awarded a US Air Force contract for technology maturation and risk reduction activities.  Contract is worth $975 million.
• News Items Over the Weekend:
  • More Stocks Are Taking Part in Bounceback Rally (WSJ)
  • The Week in Business: WeWork’s Founder Rises Again.  (NYT)
  • Europe’s Natural-Gas Crunch Sparks Global Battle for Tankers. (WSJ)
  • 97% of corporate execs think US economy is in recession or headed for one, survey shows. (FBN)
  • USA Gas Prices: lowest since early March $3.888.
  • Japan PM Kishida tests positive for Covid-19 – (FNN)
  • Governor of Indiana has arrived in Taipei for a visit.
  • China plans $29 billion in special loans to troubled developers.
  • Viasat (VSAT) Awarded $99 Million Lot Buy Order for Military Tactical Radios.
  • Barron’s:
    • Positive View: PNC, EQT, RRC, SWN, CTRA, GLNG, LNG, EOG, SHEL, MSFT, GOOG, TSM, DG, DLTR, PLNT, MCW
    • Cautious View: None of note.
    • Mixed View: None of note.

• Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
  • Adidas AG (ADDYY) announces CEO Kasper Rorsted to leave company.
  • BWXT: Names Robert Duffy as Chief Administrative Officer.
  • Credit Suisse (CS) appoints Dixit Joshi as Chief Financial Officer and Francesca McDonagh as Group Chief Operating Officer.
  • Digital Medicine Leader Akili (DNAA) to List on Nasdaq Following Successful Business Combination with Social Capital Suvretta Holdings Corp. I.  DNAA will trade under symbol AKLI  this morning.
  • ENDP: On August 17, 2022, the Company received a letter (the “Notice”) from The Nasdaq Stock Market LLC (“Nasdaq”) stating that in accordance with Nasdaq Listing Rules 5101, 5110(b) and IM-5101-1, Nasdaq has determined that the Company’s common stock will be delisted from Nasdaq.
  • First Bancshares (FBMS) announces that CEO Ray “Hoppy” Cole, Jr. has assumed the additional position of Chairman of the Board of Directors.
  • Jaguar Health (JAGX) Receives Additional 180-day Grace Period to Regain Compliance with Nasdaq’s Bid Price Rule.
  • LJPC Halt Additional Information Requested by NASDAQ.
  • McDonald’s (MCD) Announces Key Changes to Board of Directors.
  • NHWK old symbol was HTBX.
• Buyback Announcements or News:
  • Orbital Infrastructure Group, Inc. (OIG) Announces $50 Million Equity Purchase Agreement.
• Stock Splits or News: 
• Dividends Announcements or News:
  • AMERCO (UHAL) Announces Special Cash Dividend.
  • AMC: keep in mind it is split adjusted with their APE Offering.
  • Cable ONE (CABO) increases quarterly dividend to $2.85 per shares, a $0.10 increase.
  • CTO Realty Growth (CTO) Increases Quarterly Dividend By 1.8% and Declares Dividends For the Third Quarter 2022.
  • Alpine Income Property Trust (PINE) Increases Quarterly Dividend By 1.9% and Declares Dividend For the Third Quarter 2022.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.

S&P 500 -45, Dow Jones -286, NASDAQ -189  and Russell 2000 -19  (as of 8:10 a.m. EDT). Europe lower and Asia lower ex Shanghai.  VIX Futures are at 25.12 from 23.65 Friday morning and the VIX closed at 20.60 from 19.56 Friday. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil  and Brent Oil Futures higher and Natural Gas higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.974% from 2.95% yesterday morning. Bitcoin is at $21,259 from $21,490 Friday morning  and is lower by -1.23% this morning. 

Sector Action – 08/19/22 Close (1/3/6/12/YTD Updated Weekly with Monday release):  

• Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
• Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Basic Materials, Financial, Communication Services of note.
• One Month Winners:  Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Energy, Basic Materials, Financials, Utilities, and Real Estate of note.
• Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Industrials, and Real Estate of note.
• Six Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
• Twelve Month Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.
• Year to Date Winners: Energy and Utilities of note.

Options expiration day started down and ended down.  A broad pullback for all indexes including a -2.17% drop for the Russell 2000. More inflation concerns coming from over the pond, this time Germany coming in hot with PPI data.  For the week the NASDAQ pulled back 2.6% and the SPX dropped 1.2%.  Updated 08/19/22 close.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

• Monday After the Close: PANW, ZM, NDSN, DLO of note.
• Tuesday Before the Open: MDT, JD, BNS, BEKE, SJM, DKS, M, GDS, BZUN of note.

Earnings of Note This Morning:

• Beats: None of note.
• Flat: None of note.
• Misses: None of note.
• Still to Report: None of note.

Guidance:

• Positive Guidance: None of note.
• Negative Guidance: None of note.

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 08/19/22 close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

• Gap Up: MSPR +41%, GTH +7%.
• Gap Down: ADES -20%, BBBY -8%, RVLP -4%.

Insider Action: AAT sees Insider buying with dumb short selling.  VRDN sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 08/19/22 close.

Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.

• Stocks Making The Biggest Moves: SGFY BBBY AMC F TSLA (CNBC)
• 5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg Lead Story: U.S. Futures and Stocks Fall as Fed Outlook Takes Toll. (Bloomberg)
• Bloomberg Most Read Story: Fed Chair Powell Can Reset at Jackson Hole. (Bloomberg)
• Ukrainian President Zelensky warns of escalation by Russia after daughter of Alexsandr Dugin, close Putin ally, was killed in a car bombing. (WSJ)
• European gas prices surge on Russia maintenance and fear of a total shutdown. (CNBC)
• Russia rules out an peace deal and expects war to be a long conflict. (FT)
• Banks (BAC C DB GS MS UBS JEF JPM NMR) near a $1 billion settlement on traders using messaging applications that fail to keep records. (WSJ)
• Louisiana Judge blocks President Biden’s pause on federal oil and gas leasing in 13 states. (Reuters)
• President Biden to issue more Executive Orders on climate change that will be challenged in courts. (NYT)
• Student loan announcement in the next two weeks. (NBC News)
• Warren Buffet unlikely to bid for Occidental Petroleum (OXY). (WSJ)
• Meme traders remain confident in Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY). (WSJ)
• MGM China (MGM) to invest $594 million into Macau. (Reuters)
• Amazon (AMZN) could bid $8 billion for Signify Health (SGFY). (WSJ)
• United Healthcare (UNH), CVS Corp (CVS) and Option Care (OPCH) could also bid for Signify. (Bloomberg)
• Credit Suisse (CS) to reduce the number of investment banks. (FT)
• Apple (AAPL) employees are pushing back on three days a week in the office. (FT)

Moving Average Update:

• Score drops to 42% from 71% with a break down in short term moving averages.  Updated 08/19/22 close.

Geopolitical: 

• President’s Public Schedule:
  • No public events scheduled.

Economic: 

• Chicago Fed National Activity Index  8:30 a.m. EDT

Federal Reserve / Treasury Speakers:

• None of note.

M&A Activity:

• None of note.

Meeting & Conferences of Note:

• Sellside Conferences:
  • JPM Brazil Consumer & Healthcare Checkup
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
      • D.A. Davidson Big Sky Technology Summit 2022 (08/21/22-08/23/22)
• Company Meetings: SWAG.
• Fireside Chat: None of note.
• Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: None of note.
• Update: None of note.
• R&D Day: None of note.
• Company Event:
  • Advanced Emissions Solutions (ADES) Conference Call on Merger with Arq Limited.
• Industry Meetings:
  • Gartner Data & Analytics Summit 2022 (08/22/22-08/24/22)
  • Gartner Identity & Access Management Summit 2022 (08/22/22-08/24/22)
    • Previously posted and ongoing conferences:
      • None of note.

Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:

The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.

Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Previous Day’s Upgrades and Downgrades:

Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
by Superstock Investor

Stock Scorecard      Scorecard Glossary

Amazon (AMZN) seeks to drive new revenues and may bid for Signify Health (SGFY). How is Amazon valued with at close of 138.23. The stock split put the stock at $122. Our valuation is at $131.45 adjusted. Company Information Company: Amazon.com, Inc. Sector: Retailing Industry: Internet Retail Market Cap:  $1,659,280,000,000 Targets   Price %Gain   Current Price $111.75     Price Target $2,629.08 -0.2%   Upper Bound $3,286.36 0.0%   Lower Bound $1,971.81 -0.4%   Stock data last updated 07/11/2022. Data provided by QPI, Inc. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. QPI, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.

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