Wednesday, April 27, 2022
Market Crash Indicators Update
For years we published our Market Crash Indicators Model. It is back. Currently, we are 100% invested in stocks and 0% in cash. The model going forward will be a combination of stocks, bonds or cash.
We are 100% invested.
The model fell -6.43% since our last update on 4/19 close while the S&P 500 also fell -6.43%.
The S&P 500 has risen 17.75% and we have made 7.56% since we restarted the indicator.
S&P 500 Up +15 Points
Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed Tuesday at 4175.20 from 4296.12 on Monday down -2.81%. Futures have traded higher overnight but are off their peak. The overnight high of 4217.50 was hit at 4:25 a.m. EDT. The low was hit at 4,136 at 4:55 p.m. EDT, a range of 81 points high to low quite a large range. At 7:25 a.m. EDT the current price is 4198 which is +0.67% and +28 points.
Breaking News: Archegos Capital Founder Bill Hwang and a former lieutenant have been arrested this morning for racketeering conspiracy, securities fraud and wire fraud in manipulating stock prices. To appear in Manhattan federal court later today. (Bloomberg)
Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: TNET +0.64, UMBF +0.50, TX +0.49, GM +0.42, CB +0.34, CHE +0.32, JBT +0.31, WH +0.31, AGR +0.26, IEX +0.22, BYD +0.19, COF +0.18, TXN +0.16, NAVI +0.15, MANH +0.15, V +0.14, FFIV +0.12, ABCB +0.12, MKSI +0.11, ENPH +0.10, BHE +0.10, PEB +0.09, MDLZ +0.09, TER +0.09, CMG +0.07, HIW +0.07, SKX +0.07, WSBC +0.07, RHI +0.06, TRMK +0.06, EGP +0.06, CSGP +0.04, ESS +0.03, EW +0.02, MSFT +0.02, RRC +0.02, RNST +0.02, ACCO +0.02, GSHD +0.02, ZWS +0.02, CHX +0.01, TENB +0.01, FCPT +0.01, HA +0.01.
- Flat: ASH +0.00, EXAS +0.00, UDR +0.00.
- Misses: GOOG (1.06), MTDR (0.35), NCR (0.30), CNI (0.07), QS (0.06), APAM (0.05), EQR (0.03), JNPR (0.01), VBTX (0.01).
- IPOs Priced or News:
- Aclarion, Inc. (ACON) Announces Closing of $9.4 Million Initial Public Offering.
- JE Cleantech Holdings Limited (JCSE) Announces Closing of Initial Public Offering.
- Ostin Technology Group Co., Ltd. (OST) Announces Pricing of $13,500,000 Initial Public Offering.
- New SPACs launched/News:
- Isleworth Healthcare Acquisition Corp. (ISLE) to combine with Cytovia Holdings.
- Secondaries Priced:
- DCPH prices $150M offering. 5.25M shares at $10/share + 9.75M pre-funded warrants at $9.99/warrant.
- Notes Priced of note:
- SVB Financial (SIVB) Group Announces Pricing of $350 Million 4.345% and $450 Million 4.570% Senior Fixed Rate/Floating Rate Notes.
- Common Stock filings/Notes:
- DCPH: Proposed Public Offering of Common Stock and Pre-Funded Warrants.. $150,000,000 of shares .. JPM and Jefferies bookmanager.
- NABL: Filed Form 424B3.. 20,623,282 Shares Common Stock.
- NEP: Filed Form 424B5.. Common Units Representing Limited Partner Interests Having an Aggregate Sales Price of up to $300,000,000.
- SCYNEXIS (SCYX) Announces Closing of $45 Million Public Offering of Common Stock, Pre-Funded Warrants and Warrants.
- SEV: Filed Form F-1.. 10,000,000 Ordinary Shares.
- Pricing of Over-Allotment/Notes: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note:
- PLYM: Filed Form S-3ASR.. 4,411,764 share common stock offering by selling shareholders.
- Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- ADAG: Filed Form F-3.. US$200,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- USWS: Filed Form S-3.. $400,000,000 Mixed Security Shelf.
- VLON: Filed Form S-3.. $75,000,000 Mixed Shelf.
- WM: Filed Form S-3ASR.. Mixed Security Shelf.
- Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
- Cellectis (CLLS) Receives $20 Million Convertible Note Under Collaboration Agreement with its Partner Cytovia Therapeutics.
- HLBZ: Filed Form S-1.. 150,000 Shares of Class A Common Stock Up to 6,500,000 Shares of Class A Common Stock Issuable Upon Conversion of Convertible Notes.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close:
- After Hours:
- Trading Up: SKX +6%, MSFT +6%, LCID +6%, ENPH +5%, CMG +5%, IAC +5%, TER +5%, GLPG +4%, V +4%.
- Trading Down: NCR -17%, SEV -11%, FFIV -8%, JNPR -7%, DCPH -5%, EW -5%, COF -4%, TXN -4%.
- News Since The Close:
- Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: GOOGL, HOOD, FB, MSFT (CNBC)
- Twitter (TWTR) discloses $1 billion parent termination fee in merger agreement with Elon Musk.
- General Moters (GM): CEO says company has 140,000 reservations for Silverado electric pickup truck ahead of its launch. Sees the availability of semiconductors continuing to improve.
- GOOGL was impacted by a pullback in advertising spending in Europe following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “There’s a lot of uncertainty in macro environment” – CFO
- Texas Instruments (TXN) Says China Lock Downs Hurt Customer Factories.
- Hasbro (HAS) Activist Alta Fox Seeks to Replace Toymaker’s Chairman. (Bloomberg)
- Mattel (MAT) Has Held Talks With Buyout Firms. (WSJ)
- Lucid (LCID) Announces Deal for Purchase of Up to 100,000 Electric Vehicles. (WSJ)
- Robinhood (HOOD) Plans to Cut about 9% Of Full-Time Employees.
- Russian/Ukraine News:
- Russia Warns Poland, Bulgaria Of Gas Supply Cuts On Wednesday. (Reuters)
- China drone maker DJIGlobal to “temporarily suspend” its business activities in Russia and Ukraine, the 1st Chinese tech firm to halt Russia operations since war started. Says it is “reassessing compliance requirements”. (CNBC)
- Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- Custom Truck One Source (CTOS) appoints Todd Barrett as interim CFO.
- East Resources Acquisition Company (ERES) Receives Expected Notice From NASDAQ Regarding Delayed Annual Report.
- Galapagos NV(GLPG) appoints Dr. Paul Stoffels as chairman of the board.
- John Marshall Bancorp, Inc. (JMSB) Announces Effectiveness of Registration Statement on Form 10 and Listing on Nasdaq Capital Market.
- Quest Resource Holding Corporation (QRHC) Announces Retirement of Chief Financial Officer Laurie Latham.
- Buyback Announcements:
- Altra Industrial Motion (AIMC) authorizes new $300 million share repurchase program.
- CMG: Buyback $300 Million.
- GOOGL: Announcing a buyback of up to $70 billion of Class A and Class C shares.
- GROW Increased Stock Buyback Program.
- MO Announces New $300 Million Share Buyback Program.
- Teck Resources (TECK) announces additional $500 million share buyback.
- Valley National Bancorp (VLY) Announces Adoption of Share Repurchase Program of 25 million shares.
- Stock Splits:
- CTO Realty Growth (CTO) Announces Three-For-One Stock Split..
- Dividends Announcements:
- Alexander & Baldwin (ALEX) increases quarterly cash dividend by $0.01 to $0.20 per share.
- Alliance Resource (ARLP) raises quarterly dividend to $0.35 from $0.25 per share.
- Cenovus Energy (CVE) beats by $0.31, misses on revs, increases base dividend to $0.42 per share annually from $0.14 per share.
- Continental Resources (CLR) increases its quarterly dividend $0.05 to $0.28 per share.
- Ethan Allen (ETD) increases quarterly cash dividend by $0.03 to $0.32 per share.
- Evercore (EVR) increases dividend $0.04 to $0.72 per share.
- Juniper Networks (JNPR) declares dividend of $0.21 per share.
- Kimco Realty (KIM) increases quarterly cash dividend $0.01 to $0.20 per common share.
- MetLife (MET) increases quarterly dividend by $0.02 to $0.50 per share.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 +17, Dow Jones +215, NASDAQ +45, and Russell 2000 +3. Europe higher and Asian higher ex Japan. VIX Futures are at 29.65 from 27.50 yesterday morning and the VIX closed at 33.52 from 27.02 on Monday. Gold lower with Silver and Copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher with Natural Gas higher. $ is higher vs Euro, flat vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury sees yields at 2.75% from 2.795%. Bitcoin is at $38,858 from $40,497 on Tuesday morning higher by 1.53% this morning. As of 8:12 a.m. EDT.
Tuesday’s Action – 04/26/22 Close:
- Daily Positive Sectors: None of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Financial, Industrials, Healthcare, Basic Materials, Consumer Defensive, Real Estate, Utilities of note.
- One Month Winners: Real Estate, Consumer Defensive, and Utilities of note.
- Three Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
- Six Month Winners: Energy, Consumer Defensive, Utilities of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Basic Materials of note.
Sharp drops on Tuesday led by NASDAQ (-3.95%), the lowest finish since December 2020. Worry of corporate earnings, inflation, slowing ecominay….take your pick…or pick all of them! Updated 04/25/22 close.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Wednesday After the Close: FB, QCOM, AMGN, NOW, CP, EQIX, F, ORLY, AFL, AVB, ALGN, DFS, AWK, LVS, INVH, MAA, URI, RJF, DRE, ICLR, MOH, HOLX, ACGL, TYL, EQT, CG, BMRN, PINS, RE, WOLF, CHRW, PTC, GGG, TDOC, FICO, AZPN, AR, QGEN, NLY, RRX, KRC, CHDN, MAT, EHC, CACI, ASGN, AUY, HP, MSA, AMED, SLM, AXS, AGI, MEOH, MMSI, HPP, AVT, MXL, FTI, ALSN, COUR, FIX, MC, TROX, MTH, FORM, UPWK, SAVE, NEX, FWRD, OPK, PGRE, PLXS, WRE, PDM, CAKE, CCS, UCTT, CLB, CYH, OII, CLS, PI, UIS, EIG, TWOU, FARO, NTGR, BCOV, NDLS of note.
- Thursday Before the Open: MA, LLY, TMO, MRK, CMCSA, MCD, SNY, CAT, MO, SO, NOC, KDP, AEP, HSY, XEL, BAX, CARR, PH, TROW, PCG, NOK, WST, LUV, GWW, DTE, SIRI, LH, CHD, ARES, SWK, FTV, ALNY, IP, DISH, IRM, TFX, KIM, TXT, DPZ, ABMD, IPG, LKQ, CTXS, MPW, RS, PHM, AOS, NLSN, WBS, NVCR, CFR, WEX, LECO, HUN, KBR, VIRT, FAF, VLY, EME, HGV, BC, FCN, OPCH, TPX, SRCL, POR, EXLS, TNL, CNX, BTU, BPMC, PNM, TRTN, HAYW, KEX, SNDR, PRFT, AIT, LAZ, PTEN, ABG, FCFS, SFNC, BCO, BFH, ITGR, MDC, FBP, JKS, AIMC, ERJ, CBZ, AHCO, MD, CRS, STRA, SAH, OSTK, MTRN, RLGY, HNI, ECOL, PATK, TNC, TRS, STNG, PDS, CTS, SHYF, GFF, HZO, FLWS, PBI, LLNW of note.
Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: GPI +1.49, BG +1.32, HUM +1.25, R +1.21, PAG +1.12, CSTM +0.99, EVR +0.70, HELE +0.49, SPOT +0.44, SHOO +0.41, SLAB +0.41, OC +0.40, CVE +0.31, TMUS +0.25, UMC +0.21, RGEN +0.20, ODFL +0.19, TDY +0.19, TPB +0.18, TMHC +0.18, HES +0.17, HEES +0.14, WNC +0.13, ADP +0.13, TEL +0.11, ALKS +0.11, CME +0.11, MAS +0.10, STM +0.09, CHEF +0.09, GD +0.09, VRT +0.08, APH +0.08, DRVN +0.07, OSK +0.07, KHC +0.07, AMT +0.07, TECK +0.07, IART +0.06, IQV +0.05, FISV +0.05, NEO +0.04, DAN +0.03, EXTR +0.03, PB +0.02, GIB +0.02, CHKP +0.02, SLGN +0.01, GRMN +0.01, SF +0.01, ROL +0.01, WAB +0.01.
- Flat: RES +0.00, NYCB +0.00, BSX +0.00.
- Misses: BA (2.50), BOKF (0.45), FBC (0.31), PRG (0.18), TRN (0.13), ETR (0.07), EEFT (0.03), BXMT (0.02), HOG (0.02).
- Still to Report: NSC, STX.
- Positive Guidance: ALLE, CNC, TRU, ROP, GLW, HUBB, QGEN, ENPH, EGP, BHE, JBT, USNA, IPAR, CTOS, PEB, NAVI, AGR, CHX, BUSE, STM, BG, HUM, HELE, ADP, SHOO, SLAB, SLGN, R of note.
- Negative Guidance: ST, RTX, ECL, TXN, FFIV, NCR, TNET, EW, MKSI, TEL, ACMR, BSX, IQV, GRMN, OSK, EXTR, RGEN of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 04/26/22 close.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
- Gap Up: ASH +9%, ENPH +8%, ARLP +7%, LCID +7%, TX +6%, DWAC +6%, V +5%, CSGP +5%, MSFT +5%, MNKD +5%, BYD +4%, SKX +4%, GM +4%.
- Gap Down: MOLN -37%, NCR -20%, SEV -10%, FFIV -8%, DB -6%, JNPR -5%, EW -5%, MKSI -5%, COF -4%, CHKP -4%, HA -4%.
Insider Action: HMTV, ALTG sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. No stock sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 04/26/22 close.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
- Russia cuts gas flow to Poland and Bulgaria. (Bloomberg)
- Explosions took place in Moldova overnight, is not clear who is responsible. (NYT)
- Four European clients made payments for Gas in Rubbles to Russia. (Bloomberg)
- Shanghai officials noted might ease lockdown measures soon. (Bloomberg)
- Adjustable rate mortgage demand doubles. (CNBC)
- White House Covid Coordinator Dr. Ashish Jha notes that Covid cases will go up and down with key metrics hospitalizations and death, so forget tracking basically. (NYT)
- Boeing (BA) misses estimates on commercial delays. (CNBC)
- Robinhood Snacks looks at Zelle and users being scammed, Congress to look at.
Moving Average Update:
- Score stays at 0% for the third day. Updated 04/26/22 close.
- President’s Public Schedule:
- The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 9:30 a.m. EDT
- The President attends the funeral of Secretary of State Madeleine Albright; The President delivers remarks, 11:00 a.m. EDT
- Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 3:00 p.m. EDT
- The President and The First Lady host the Council of Chief State School Officers’ 2022 National and State Teachers of the Year; The President, The First Lady, the Secretary of Education, and 2022 National Teacher of the Year Kurt Russell deliver remarks, 4:00 p.m. EDT
- MBA Mortgage Applications Apr 22: -8.3% (prev -5.0%) – US MBA 30 Yr Mortgage Rate Apr 22: 5.37% (prev 5.20%)
- International Trade in Goods 8:30 a.m. EDT
- Wholesale Inventories 8:30 a.m. EDT
- March Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to improve from a drop of -4.1% to -1.5%.
- EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 am ET .
Federal Reserve Speakers:
- CGI enters into an agreement for the acquisition of Harwell Management, a management consulting firm specializing in the financial services industry.
- Castle Biosciences (CSTL) Completes Acquisition of AltheaDx.
- California Water Service (CWT) to Acquire Kukui’ula South Shore Community Services.
- Goldman Sachs (GS) Buys Minority Stake In TV Ad-Measurement Company iSpot.tv For $325 Million.
- Gorman-Rupp (GRC) Announces Agreement to Acquire Fill-Rite, Market-Leading Manufacturer of Pumps and Meters.
- Tenable (TENB) Agrees to Acquire Bit Discovery for $44.5 million cash deal.
- TotalEnergies SE (TTE) acquires Core Solar.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- B.Riley Financial Apptega’s Amplify Partner Summit
- B.Riley Neuro & Ophthalmology Conference (04/27/22-04/28/22)
- UBS Asia Healthcare Virtual Conference 2022 (04/27/22-04/29/22)
- Previously Announced Conferences:
- Jefferies Biotech on the Bay Summit
- Company Meetings: ALC, BEAT, BLL, BWA, CI, CLF, ETC, GWW, HLF, KMB, MPC, NYT, ODP, PNC, PPC, SAH, SFNC, TXT.
- Fireside Chat: None of note.
- Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: MEGI, PLTR.
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: Vir Biotechnology (VIR) Virtual Hepatitis Portfolio R&D Day 2022.
- Company Event:
- ICAD ProFound Impact Webinar Series.
- Praxis (PRAX) 2022 Epilepsy Day.
- NGM Bio (NGM) to Host the Second R&D Event 2022.
- Viracta Therapeutics (VIRX) Key Opinion Leader Webinar on Nana-val for the Treatment of Advanced Epstein-Barr Virus-Positive Solid Tumors.
- Industry Meetings:
- None of note.
- Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
- MRO Americas Aviation Week 2022 (04/26/22-04/28/22)
- Canadian Hydrogen Convention (04/26/22-04/28/22)
- 2022 IRSF Rett Syndrome Scientific Symposium (04/26/22-04/27/22)
- AUVSI Xponential Unmanned Systems 2022 (04/25/22-04/28/22)
- CinemaCon Las Vegas 2022 (04/25/22-04/28/22)
- Supply Chain & Logistics for Cell Therapies Summit (04/25/22-04/27/22)
- National Association of Broadcasters NAB Show 2022 (04/23/22-04/27/22)
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:
Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL)
by Superstock Investor
Is there value in Google (GOOGL) at $2373? This morning it is off -4% at 2275.
||Alphabet Inc. Class A
Stock data last updated 01/28/2022.
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