Wednesday, March 09, 2022
Market Crash Indicators
For years we published our Market Crash Indicators Model. It is back. Currently, we are 100% invested in stocks and 0% in cash. The model going forward will be a combination of stocks, bonds or cash.
We are 100% invested.
The model fell -3.15% since our last update on 3/1 while the S&P 500 fell -3.15% as well.
The S&P 500 has risen 16.99% and we have made 6.80% since we restarted the indicator.
Stocks Futures On The S&P 500 +73
Overnight Summary: The S&P 500 closed yesterday at 4170.70 from 4201.09 on Monday. The S&P 500 has now dropped four days in a row. The low overnight was of 4148 at 4:45 p.m. EST. From there, the S&P 500 has been straight up to the current level at 4232.25 up 63.50 points which is 1.52% at 7:20 a.m. EST.
Breaking News: China to suspend exports of gasoline and diesel in April.
Earnings Out After The Close:
- Beats: CASY +0.26, ABM +0.16, MDB +0.12, DV +0.11, FIGS +0.06, GWRE +0.05, YEXT +0.05, SUMO +0.04, SFIX +0.02, WTI +0.01.
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: CRCT (0.19), BMBL (0.18).
- IPOs Priced or News: None of note.
- New SPACs launched/News: None of note.
- Secondaries Priced: None of note.
- Notes Priced of note:
- Travere Therapeutics (TVTX) prices offering of $275 million of 2.25% convertible senior notes due 2029.
- Common Stock filings/Notes:
- KNTK: Secondary Offering of Common Stock.. 2.5 million shares.. BAC, JPM and MS Bookmanager.
- GNSS: Filed Form S-3.. 2,165,824 Shares of Common Stock.
- Pricing of Over-Allotment: None of note.
- Direct Offering: None of note.
- Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.
- Private Placement of Public Entity (PIPE): None of note.
- Mixed Shelf Offerings:
- TERN: Filed Form S-3.. $250Million Mixed Security Shelf.
- UBS: Potential Mixed Shelf Offering.
- Convertible Offering & Notes Filed:
- LXU: Completion of $200 Million Notes Offering.
- ENR: Completion of $300 Million Senior Notes Offering.
Capital Raise Summary From The TradeXchange, bringing traders and investors real time news and Squawk Box, and other sources.
News After The Close:
- After Hours:
- Trading Up: BMBL +21%, FIGS +13%, MDB +10%, XPO +10%, SNCR +7%, WTI +6%, DV +5%, EXAI +5%, AGTI +5%, GWRE +5%.
- Trading Down: CRCT -28%, YEXT -18%, SFIX -18%, KNTK -9%.
- News After The Close:
- Stitch Fix (SFIX) stock falls more than 16% after quarterly miss, lower guidance. (MarketWatch)
- Boeing (BA) receives new order for additional 777 freighters from DHL Express.
- XPO Logistics (XPO) stock soars nearly 9% after company to split itself into two businesses. (MarketWatch)
- Russian/Ukraine News:
- Russia Set to Ban Commodity Exports Following Western Sanctions (WSJ)
- Ukraine State Power Grid Operator Says Russian Forces Have Disconnected Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant From Grid. (Reuters)
- Russia suspends foreign exchange trading until September: Russian banks are no longer allowed to sell foreign currency to citizens.
- China’s biggest smartphone makers are slashing their shipments to Russia because of the rubles collapse and western sanctions despite pressure from Beijing to support Vladimir Putin after his invasion of Ukraine.
- UK Transport Secretary Grant Shapps tweets that Russian aircraft no longer allowed in UK airspace.
- Fitch Downgrades Russia to ‘C’ – Reflects View Sovereign Default Imminent.
- Starbucks (SBUX) closes stores, suspends operations in Russia.
- Paypal (PYPL) suspends services in Russia.
- Pepsi (PEP) is suspending business in Russia.
- CAE suspends services and training to Russian airlines and operators.
- Bumble Inc. (BMBL) to discontinue operations in Russia and Belarus.
- Assets Under Management Reporting: CNS $98.9 billion.
- Exchange/Listing/Company Reorg and Personnel News:
- NRx Pharmaceuticals (NRXP) Announces CEO retires and tags Robert Besthof as interim CEO.
- Oscar Health (OSCR) announces departure of COO Meghan Joyce, effective April 10.
- United Bank (UBSI) Announces New President.
- Verra Mobility (VRRM) Announces Receipt of Notice from Nasdaq Regarding Late Filing of Annual Report on Form 10-K.
- Yext (YEXT) Announces Leadership Transition.
- Buyback Announcements:
- Casey’s General (CASY) increases share repurchase program by $100 million.
- Kulicke & Soffa (KLIC) Announces $150 Million Accelerated Share Repurchase.
- Medallion Financial Corp. (MFIN) to Resume Stock Repurchase Program.
- Pilgrim’s Pride (PPC) approved a $200 million share repurchase plan.
- Stock Splits: None of note.
- Dividends Announcements:
- Globe Life (GL) increases quarterly dividend to $0.2075 per share from $0.1975 per share.
- Toll Brothers (TOL) Announces 18% Increase to Quarterly Cash Dividend to $0.20 per share.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value.
S&P 500 +75, Dow Jones +540, NASDAQ +300, and Russell 2000 +32.09. Asia lower and Europe higher. VIX Futures are at 31.85 from 33.34 yesterday morning. Gold, Silver and Copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury with yields at +1.90% from 1.851% from yesterday. Bitcoin is at $41,952 from $38,899.63 at +8.77%. As of 8:09 a.m. EST
Monday’s Action – 03/08/22 Close:
- Daily Positive Sectors: Energy, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services of note.
- Daily Negative Sectors: Consumer Defensive, Healthcare, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
- One Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
- Three Month Winners: Energy, Utilities and Basic Materials of note.
- Six Month Winners: Energy, Basic Materials, Utilities of note.
- Twelve Month Winners: Energy, Utilities, and Real Estate of note.
- Year to Date Winners: Energy and Basic Materials of note.
Roller coaster action ending up with a down day. The SPX finished at 4,170.70, down 0.72%. Oil was again higher with the USO up 3.71%. TLT closed down 1.01%. Updated 03/08/22 close.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
- Wednesday After the Close: CRWD, FNV, BEKE, TCOM, ASAN, MQ, GSKY, BASE, CVGW of note.
- Thursday Before the Open: JD, CLVT, GDS, AG, DCBO, PTLO, DFH, GCO, UP, BZUN of note.
Earnings of Note This Morning:
- Beats: THO +1.45, PLCE +0.17, KFY +0.11, VERX +0.03, REVG +0.02, CPB +0.01
- Flat: None of note.
- Misses: DSEY (0.24), VRA (0.09), OTLY (0.03), UNFI (0.01).
- Still to Report: EBIX, LAC.
- Positive Guidance: DM, ABM, MDB, FIGS, GWRE, AGTI, KFY, VERX.
- Negative Guidance: SFIX, BMBL, YEXT, OTLY, VRA.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart: Updated through 03/08/22 close.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
- Gap Up: BMBL +23%, XPO +13%, MDB +12%, FIGS +12%, EXAI +10%, NRXP +5%, RKLB +5%, DV +5%, AGTI +5%, RKLY +5%, ABM +4%, TDW +4%, CIVI +4%, GWRE +4%.
- Gap Down: CRCT -31%, YEXT -26%, SFIX -25%, KNTK -9%, OSCR -6%.
Insider Action: DAN, CXW sees Insider buying with dumb short selling. DGII, AGM sees Insider buying with smart short sellers. 03/08/22 close.
Rags & Mags: Repeated stories from prior days never listed, i.e. “rehashed news”. Sorted by Global, U.S. and stock specific.
- Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: CPB EXPR THO AMZN PEP SFIX BMBL GCI (CNBC)
- 5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
- Russian forces push towards Kyiv. (WSJ)
- Plan to send fighter jets to Ukraine hits a wall as Poland sends fighter jets to Germany. Now NATO has to deliver to Ukraine. (Bloomberg)
- Biden administration puts out Executive Order on cryptocurrencies. (NYT)
- Two political prisoners were released from Venezuela as they look to sell crude oil to U.S. (Bloomberg)
- Macy’s (M) focuses on buybacks and investment. (WSJ)
- Mastercard (MA) sees February sales up 8.7% year over year.
- Summary of yesterday’s Apple (AAPL) announcements. (CNBC)
- Robinhood Snacks looks at the ban on the import of Russian oil and commodities gone crazy. Then reviews the latest Apple (AAPL) iPhone SE, Mac Studio and Apple TV+.
Moving Average Update:
- Score remains at 0%. Updated 03/08/22 close.
- President’s Public Schedule:
- The President receives the President’s Daily Brief, 11:00 a.m. EST
- Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki, 1:00 p.m. EST
- The President and the Secretary of Commerce meet with business leaders and bipartisan Governors to discuss the importance of quickly passing competitiveness legislation like the Bipartisan Innovation Act to lower prices for working families, 2:00 p.m. EST
- The President delivers remarks at the Democratic Senators Issues Conference, 6:15 p.m. EST
- MBA Mortgage Applications 7:00 a.m. EST and came in at 8.5% from -0.7% last week as a mini refinance boom happened. (CNBC)
- JOLTS 10:00 a.m. EST
- EIA Petroleum Report 10:30 a.m. EST
- The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest Data comes out after the close of trading. During the collection period of February 11th through February 24th, the S&P 500 fell -2.94%.
Federal Reserve Speakers:
- Tidewater (TDW) Announces the Acquisition of Swire Pacific Offshore, Creating World’s Leading OSV Operator.
Meeting & Conferences of Note:
- Sellside Conferences:
- Credit Suisse European Banks Conference 2022
- Goldman Sachs Energy Services Symposium 2022
- Guggenheim Broadcasting Symposium
- HSBC Build with Bio Conference 2022 (03/09/22-03/10/22)
- UBS Global Consumer and Retail Conference 2022 (03/09/22-03/10/22)
- Previously Announced Conferences:
- Bank of America Securities Consumer and Retail Technology Conference 2022 (03/08/22-03/09/22)
- Exane BNP Paribas & Jefferies Spring Automotive Conference 2022 (03/08/22-03/09/22)
- KeyBanc Capital Markets Annual Emerging Technology Summit 2022 (03/08/22-03/09/22)
- RBC Capital Markets Global Financial Institutions Conference 2022 (03/08/22-03/09/22)
- Scotiabank TMT Conference 2022 (03/08/22-03/09/22)
- UBS Technology 1×1 Conference 2022 (03/08/22-03/09/22)
- Wolfe Research Fintech Forum 2022 (03/08/22-03/10/22)
- Citi Global Property CEO Conference 2022 (03/06/22-03/09/22)
- Cowen and Co. 42nd Annual Healthcare Conference 2022 (03/07/22-03/09/22)
- Evercore ISI Elite Energy & Materials Summit 2022 (03/07/22-03/09/22)
- JP Morgan Global Emerging Markets Corporate Conference 2022 (03/07/22-03/09/22)
- Morgan Stanley Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT) Conference 2022 (03/07/22-03/10/22)
- Raymond James & Associates 43rd Annual Institutional Investors Conference 2022 (03/06/22-03/09/22)
- Company Meetings: DIS, JCI, QCOM.
- Fireside Chat: XSPA.
- Investor/Analyst Day/Calls: AMZN, DIN, HRB, SON, WWD.
- Update: None of note.
- R&D Day: None of note.
- Company Event: SHYF.
- Industry Meetings:
- Council on Resident Education in Obstetrics and Gynecology (CREOG) & Association of Professors of Gynecology and Obstetrics (APGO) Annual Meeting 2022 (03/09/22-03/12/22)
- Festival of Biologics Conference 2022 (03/09/22-03/11/22)
- Mortgage & Consumer Finance Conference 2022
- Previously Posted and Ongoing Conferences:
- American Clean Power (ACP) Operations and Maintenance Safety (OMS) Conference 2022 (03/08/22-03/10/22)
- Filtech 2022 (03/08/22-03/10/22)
- Optical Fiber Conference (OFC) 2022 (03/08/22-03/10/22)
- CERAWeek 2022 (03/06/22-03/11/22)
- World Defense Show 2022 (03/06/22-03/09/22)
- Western Veterinary Annual Conference 2022 (03/06/22-03/09/22)
Top Tier Sell-side Upgrades & Downgrades:
The recommendations listed below in this “Upgrade/Downgrade” section are compiled from what we believe are Tier I, II and III firms. Recommendations posted are taken from a variety of sources each day and we only post upgrades or significant initiations as well as downgrades to underweight or sell. The purpose of this posting it to make the reader aware of market moving recommendations. None of these recommendations should be interpreted as actual recommendations from CAPIS or its employees.
Today’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
Tuesday’s Upgrades and Downgrades:
Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:
Campbell Soup Company (CPB)
by Superstock Investor
Campbell Soup (CPB) reported earnings and is at $42.30. Is there value?
||Campbell Soup Company
||Food Beverage & Tobacco
||Packaged Foods & Meats
Stock data last updated 01/28/2022.
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