Tuesday, January 26, 2021
Market Crash Indicators Model Gained 1.12% Last Week
For years we published our Market Crash Indicators Model. It is back as of eight weeks ago. Currently, we are 75% invested in stocks and 25% in cash. The model going forward will be a combination of stocks, bonds or cash.
For the past week the S&P 500 rose 1.49% and we made 1.12% for the week.
Since the inception, the S&P 500 has risen 8.44% and we made 6.34% and since we restarted.
Stocks Futures On The S&P 500 Higher By +4.64
Total Cases 24,935,139 from 24,800,354
Deaths 411,823 from 410,212
New Tests 1,696,188 from 1,709,230
New Cases 133,067 from 142,949 with positivity rate of 7.8% (down 0.6)
Daily Deaths 1,593
Current Hospitalizations 109,936 from 110,628
IPOs Priced or News:
Secondaries Priced: None of note.
Notes Priced of note: RUN of note.
Common Stock filings: SEEL CVAC ASO SEER SGRY CSEE QUMU LPCN of note.
Selling Shareholders of note: SEER CSSE of note.
Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.
Convertible Offering Files: None of note.
Earnings Out After The Close Of Note:
Beats: FUL +0.20, STLD +0.13, BOOT +0.11, AGNC +0.10, GGG +0.10, BXS +0.07, BRO +0.03, HXL +0.02, ELS +0.01
Misses: CR (0.10), JJSF (0.09), HTLF (0.04)
News After The Close:
President Biden states that he will make it clear to Congress more economic support is needed.
Interactive (IAC) unit Vimeo raise $300 million of equity.
Leon Black is out at Apollo Global Management (APO) due to connection to Jeffrey Epstein.
Senate Majority Leader Schumer reiterated what he said at 10:37 a.m. EST that Covid-19 Stimulus Deal is 1 to 1 1/2 months away.
Janet Yellen was confirmed as the new Treasury Secretary.
Index Changes: STAA to S&P 400. PBH and BDGE to S&P 600.
Blackberry (BB) to partner with Baidu (BIDU) on next generation autonomous driving technology.
Minnesota Department of Health reports first Covid-19 case with Brazil P.1. variant.
Dividend Increases: RBNC HESM PAG
Raises Guidance: IPAR DHI XRX IFF DD JNJ
Lowers Guidance: AXNX EPRT GE
Stock Buyback New Or Increase:
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.
S&P 500 +7 Dow Jones Industrial Average +75 NASDAQ +6 Russell 2000 +15. Fair values are lower. Asia lower and Europe higher. VIX is at 25.44 from 25.10 this morning in futures. VIX closed at 23.19 from 21.91 and the three month futures at 26.88 from 25.99.
Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $137.31 from $137.22with the yield at 1.047% from 1.065%.
Positive Sectors On Monday: Utilities, Healthcare, Consumer Defensive and Technology.
Negative Sectors On Monday: Energy, Financials, Industrials and Materials of note.
One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials of note.
Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.
Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.
Year to Date: Energy, Materials, Healthcare and Financials of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Today After the Close: MSFT, TXN, SBUX, AMD, CNI, COF, MXIM, VAR, BXP, CHRW, WRB, FFIV, EHC, RNR of note.
Wednesday Before the Open: T, ABT, BA, ANTM, BX, ADP, NSC, PGR, GD, TEL, APH, VFC, GLW, NDAQ of note.
Earnings This Morning Of Note:
Beats: AXP +0.46, PII +0.44, DHI +0.42, NEP +0.42, ALV +0.34, SNV +0.26, AUB +0.23, MMM +0.21, IVZ +0.15, PPBI +0.15, ADM +0.12, ROK +0.06, RTX +0.05, VZ +0.04, JNJ +0.03, NEE +0.02
Misses: XRX (0.05), LMT (0.03), NVS (0.03), GE (0.01)
Still to Report: ALK, CIT, FCX, PCAR, PLD, SFNC
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart – Updated 1/25 Close.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
BB +17%, OSTK +12%, ICFI +10%, TLRY +10%, ICLK +10%, BDGE +8%, KLDO +7%, STAA +6%, PBH +6%, AUDC +5%, APO +5%, CGRO +5%, IPAR +4%, PII +4%
KRMD -17%, SEEL -11%, LPCN -9%, JJSF -6%, NVS -4%
Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.
5 Things To Know Before The Open – (CNBC)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – GME AMC EXPR (CNBC)
Biggest Analyst Calls of The Day – NIO WMT MSFT F (CNBC)
Covid Update – Merck ends vaccine effort, Google offers offices as a place to give shots. (CNBC)
President Biden pushes for 1.5 million vaccinations a day by spring.
Senator Joe Manchin (D- WV) will not vote to remove the Senate filibuster and Senator Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) joins him. (NYT)
President Joe Biden begins process to ban oil and gas drilling on federal land. (NYT)
President Joe Biden extends travel restrictions on multiple countries. (CNBC)
Stock Index Trading:
Current through 1/25 close. Overall confidence remains at 93%.
Bold means a change from prior day.
The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) begins a two day meeting.
The President and The Vice President receive the President’s Daily Brief, Oval Office, 9:45 a.m. EST
Press Briefing by Press Secretary Jen Psaki and Domestic Policy Advisor Susan Rice, The White House, 12:30 p.m. EST
The President delivers remarks outlining his racial equity agenda and signs executive actions; The Vice President also attends, State Dining Room, 2:00 p.m. EST
November S&P Case-Schiller Home Price Index is due out at 8:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 9% from 7.9%.
January Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 89 from 88.6.
$60 Billion of 2 Year Notes auctioned at 1:00 p.m. EST.
Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:
(R&D Call) (Fireside Chat)
Marriot Vacations (VAC) to buy Welk Resorts for $430 million.
Upgrades & Downgrades of Note This Morning: Note that downgrades are increasing first two weeks of the year.
General Electric Company (GE)
by Superstock Investor
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