Superstock Investor
Morning Briefing

Monday, January 04, 2021

Morning Matters:

The Week Ahead

The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average and NASDAQ 100 were higher last week. The Russell 2000 was lower for the week.

The 14-day choppiness index for the NASDAQ 100 moves from 52 to 39 with S&P 500 at 50 from 63. The Dow Jones Industrial Average 14-day choppiness index is at 58 from 73. The Russell 2000 is at 43 still. The Choppiness index ranges from 0 to 100, and the lower it goes the more a trend is evolving.

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Monday sees Congress start its new year with the additional stimulus bill still outstanding. Tuesday sees the Georgia Senate runoffs to determine the fate of the Senate. Wednesday sees the House and Senate convene to affirm the Electoral College results.

2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims as well as construction spending, ISM Manufacturing Index, factory orders, nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases this upcoming week include RPM JEF MU STZ WBA CCL CAG AYI LW HELE.

Monday, January 4

November Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to drop to 0.9% from 1.3%.

Tuesday, January 5

December ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 EST and is expected to fall to 56.4% from 57.5%.

Georgia holds a runoff Senate election for both seats. The fate of the Senate will be determined by this election. Results may or may not be known for several days.

Wednesday, January 6

November Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 0.6% from 1.0%.

December ADP Payroll Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EST. It is expected to drop to 200,000 from 307,000 in November.

The House and Senate convene to validate the Electoral College results. 11 Senators have indicated that they will challenge the results. Stay tuned.

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases minutes from its mid-December meeting at 2:00 p.m. EST.

Thursday, January 7

December ISM Non-Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 55.9%.

Friday, January 8

December Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 112,000 from 245,000. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 6.7%.


Market Matters:

Stocks Futures Higher On The S&P 500 By +17

Covid-19 Statistics: With the winter holidays, we expect a number of reporting and data anomalies for the next few weeks. We urge caution in using these figures (new disclaimer from them).

Total Cases 20,376,721 from 20,171,916

Deaths 343,177 from 341,746

New Tests 1,424,180 from 2,073,786

New Cases 204,805 from 277,897 with positivity rate of 14.4% (up 1.0)

Daily Deaths 1,431

Current Hospitalizations 125,544 from 123,614

Capital Raises:

IPOs Priced:  None of note.

Secondaries Priced: None  of note.

Notes Priced of note: None of note.

Common Stock filings: None of note.

Selling Shareholders of note: None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: ALT BSGM of note.

Convertible Offering Files:  None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings Out After The Close:

Beats: none

Flat:  none

Misses: none

News After The Close (sorted by time starting at the close 0n 12/31):

SAGE  Therapeutics (SAGE) receives $875 million payment from Biogen (BIIB) and sale of shares.

NYC Mayor Bill de Blasio seeks to vaccinate one million people by end of January. (Reuters)

Senate voted to override President Trump’s veto on the Defense Bill over the long weekend.

Nancy Pelosi reelected as House Speaker on Sunday.


Raises Guidance: 

Lowers Guidance: 

Stock Buyback New Or Increase: SJM

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. 

S&P 500 +15   Dow Jones Industrial Average +140   NASDAQ +62    Russell 2000 +14.60 . Fair values are higher ex the Russell 2000. Asia mixed and Europe higher. VIX is at 24.35 from 23.41 this morning in futures. VIX closed at from 21.70 and the three month futures at from 25.15.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil lower and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $137.9 with the yield at 0.931%.

Positive Sectors On Thursday:  Utilities, Financials and Real Estate of note.

Negative Sectors On Thursday: Energy, Consumer Cyclical and Materials of note. 

One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials  of note.

Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)

Today After the Close: None of note.

Tuesday Before the Open: None of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beats: none

Misses: none

Still to Report: none

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart –  Updated 12/31 Close.

Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:

Gap Up:

FLIR +23%, MGLN +12%, KXIN +8%, XPEV +7%, GORO +6%, LI +6%, CTSO +5%, EYPT +5%, GDX +4%, NIO +4%

Gap Down:

CHA -4%, HLF -3%

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – MGLN FLIR TSLA  (CNBC)

Germany extended lockdown through end of January. (Financial Times)

OPEC may increase production when they meet this week. (Reuters)

Operation Warp Speed Chief Advisor Moncef Slaoui may cut Moderna (MRNA) in half to speed up vaccinations. (Politico)

Democrats lead Republicans by 2% and 1% in Tuesday’s Georgia Runoff Senate elections. (Real Clear Politics)

12 Republican Senators will join over 100 Republican Congressmen to overturn the election. (NYT)

President Trump put the screws to Georgia Election Officials over the weekend. (The Washington Post)

NYSE will delist  CHU CHA and CHL by the end of the week per the Executive Order from President Trump signed in November.

NIO sees December deliveries up to 7,007 up 121%.

Stock Index Trading:

Current through 12/31 close. Overall confidence moves to 93% from 100%.

Bold means a change from prior day.


November Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to drop to 0.9% from 1.3%.

Economic Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims as well as construction spending, ISM Manufacturing Index, factory orders, nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate.

Geopolitical & Related:

The New Congress begins a new session.

The Republican National Committee hosts a Victory Rally featuring President Donald J. Trump, Senator David Perdue, Senator Kelly Loeffler, and other republicans in Dalton, GA 7:00 p.m. EST

Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:

CALA  (Update)

Sellside Conferences: Citi Global TMT West Conference (1/4-1/7)

Industry Conferences: None of note.

M&A Activity:

Centene (CNC) to buy Magellan Health (MGLN) for $95 a share.

Dentsply Sirona (XRAY) to buy Byte for $1.04 billion.

Teledyne Tech (TDY) to buy FLIR Systems (FLIR) for $28 in cash and 0.0728 share of Teledyne stock, a 40% premium to 12/31 close.

Gilbraltar Industries (ROCK) to buy TerraSmart for $220 million.

Upgrades & Downgrades This Morning: Recommendations picked up this morning from last week. 


Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

Northern Trust Corporation (NTRS)
by Superstock Investor


Northern Trust (NTRS) closed the year at $93.14. Is there value here?

Company Information

Company: Northern Trust Corporation
Sector: Diversified Financials
Industry: Asset Mmt_Custody Banks
Market Cap:  $24,177,425,400


  Price %Gain  
Current Price $95.06    
Price Target $95.06 0.0%  
Upper Bound $118.83 25.0%  
Lower Bound $80.80 -15.0%  

Stock data last updated 03/19/2019.

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