Wednesday, December 02, 2020
Weekly Chart of the S&P 500 Via SPY
We are updating our look at the S&P 500 via our favorite chart of SPY through Tuesday's close.
The Weekly Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel (Yellow Band) sees the current price above the channel. As such, bias is positive.
Second, the Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) is at 14.82 from 13.62 . Above 0 is good and below 0 is bad. The current action is now back to positive.
Third, the Erlanger Crossover Spread (EC) Spread is at 39.70 from 42.92.
Last, the Erlanger Trend Direction (ETD) is now in uptrend.class="article">So what is an investor to do here? We would recommend nibbling on new ideas.
Positioning in our Morning Matters Portfolio off this chart and several other indicators moved to 100% cash on February 28th (see Flash Alert #446). We have started adding new buys and are 33% invested.
Stocks Futures Lower On The S&P 500
Market Tone: Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. Trend is higher however.
Total Cases 13,515,234 from 13,337,969
Deaths 261,789 from 259,075
New Tests 1,380,784 from 1,596,757
New Cases 176,751 from 147,074 with positivity rate of 12.8% (up 3.6)
Daily Deaths 2,473
Current Hospitalizations 98,691 from 96,039
Secondaries Priced: NTLAREXR RETA FCEL JBLUBGNE COGT ZI of note.
Notes Priced of note: None of note.
Common Stock filings: JBLU FCEL ED REXR TWST RETA of note.
Selling Shareholders of note: AQUA CMBM BNR TRUP IMAB GRTX BGNE TWST of note.
Mixed Shelf Offerings: PINE GRTX of note.
Convertible Offering Files: of note.
Senior Notes Filed: None of note.
Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: CRM +0.99, NTAP +0.32, TCOM +0.18, VEEV +0.15, HOME +0.14, BOX +0.14, WORK +0.06, HPE +0.03
News After The Close:
Walt Disney (DIS) to consolidate its TV studios to focus on streaming. (Reuters)
Samsung (SSNLF) may stop selling high end Galaxy Note smartphones. (Reuters)
Blackbaud (BLKB) updates long term financial goals and strategic outlook.
Amazon (AMZN) music offering can now stream music videos.
American Airlines (AAL) and United (UAL) cancel nonstop flight to Shanghai.
Workhorse Group (WKHS) down in after hours on report from Trucks.com that the USPS is delaying contract again.
Dividend Increase: ADC TG (special $5.97)
Raises Guidance: CRM HPE BOX VEEV MWK
Lowers Guidance: TCOM
Stock Buyback New Or Increase: WASH
Hourly Action: 12/1 Close Updated
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.
S&P 500 -12 Dow Jones Industrial Average -133 NASDAQ -54 Russell 2000 -9 . Fair values are lower. Asia and Europe mixed. VIX is at 22.88 from 22.09 this morning in futures. VIX closed at 20.77 from 20.57 and the three month futures at 24.49 from 24.33.
Gold higher with silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil lower and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $137.53 from $138.09 with the yield at 0.92% from 0.88%.
Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Materials, Financials and Energy of note.
Negative Sectors On Tuesday: None of note.
One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials of note.
Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.
Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.
Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Today After the Close: SNOW, SNPS, CRWD, SPLK, OKTA, ZS, ESTC, FIVE, PVH, DSGX, SMTC, VRNT, SPWH, CMTL of note.
Thursday Before the Open: TD, DG, CM, KR, CCL, DCI, AZEK, TPTX, CBRL, SIG, MIK, GMS, MEI, SCWX of note.
Earnings This Morning Of Note:
Beats: PDCO +0.24, RY +0.15
Still to Report: none
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart – Updated 12/31 Close.
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
TG +26%, IBIO +19%, VNDA +10%, MESO +9%, FUBO +9%, BNTX +7%, NTAP +6%, VAPO +6%, PLL +4%, LSPD +4%, RY +4%
OVID -51%, WKHS -23%, FCEL -22%, SOL -11%, RETA -9%, AQUA -8%, BOX -6%, BGNE -6%, JBLU -6%, SYNH -5%, MCRI -4%, CRM -4%, TCOM -4%, TWST -4%, CMBM -4%, ZI -4%
Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – PFE CRM PLTR VZ . (CNBC)
5 things to know before the market opens. (CNBC)
Biggest analyst calls of the day. (CNBC)
Coronavirus Update: UK give the gree light to Pfizer vaccine, U.S, approves anitbody test. (CNBC)
Pfizer (PFE) and BioNTech get temporary EUA for Covid-19 vaccine in UK. (CNBC)
President Trump will veto defense bill if does not include repeal of Section 230 liability. (CNBC)
President -Elect Biden will leave Chinese tariffs or pull out of Phase One of trade deal for now. (NYT)
House Speaker Pelosi has a $500 billion plan that is similar to the Senate. (Bloomberg)
Big cities hurt in recovery as workers did not return to office after Labor Day. (WSJ)
JD.com Health raised $3.5 billion in Hong Kong. (WSJ)
TSMC (TSM) to introduce 3nm technology in 2023. (Digitimes)
Stock Index Trading:
Current through 12/1 close. Overall confidence fell rose from 83% to 90%.
Bold means a change from prior day.
The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 12/1 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. Volatility cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting.
Geopolitical & Related:
President Trump will have lunch with the Secretary of State at 12:30 p.m. EST.
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin will conclude their testimony before the House.
Federal Reserve Governor Quarles to speak at 10:00 a.m. EST.
Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:
CROX COHU DISCA KMPH SSL (Investor Day) RMED(Update) COST BLKB (Conference Call)
Sellside Conferences: Goldman Sachs Industrial Conference (11/30-12/2) Bank of America Virtual Leveraged Finance Conference (11/30 -12/2) Credit Suisse Technology Conference (11/30-12/3) Citi Basic Materials Conference (11/30-12/2) Wells Fargo TMT Conference (12/1-12/2) Morgan Stanley Global Consumer and Retail Conference (12/1-12/3) Piper Sandler Annual Healthcare Conference (12/1-12/3) Evercore ISI HealthCONx Conference (12/1-12/3) Credit Suisse Industrial Conference (12/2-12/4)
Industry Conferences: NASDAQ Investor Conference (12/1-12/4)
Salesforce.com (CRM) buys Slack (WORK) which is in a a combination of cash $26.79 and stock 0.0776 shares for each share of Slack.
Lightspeed (LSPD) to buy Upserve for $430 million in cash and stock.
Upgrades & Downgrades: Another busy day for both upgrades and downgrades.
Proofpoint, Inc. (PFPT)
by Superstock Investor
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