Wednesday, November 25, 2020
Weekly Timing Chart Of The S&P 500
We are updating our look at the S&P 500 via our favorite chart of SPY through Tuesday's close.
The Weekly Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel (Yellow Band) sees the current price above the channel. As such, bias is positive.
Second, the Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) is at 13.62 from 15.69. Above 0 is good and below 0 is bad. The current action is now back to positive.
Third, the Erlanger Crossover Spread (EC) Spread is at 42.92 from 55.87.
Last, the Erlanger Trend Direction (ETD) is now in uptrend.class="article">So what is an investor to do here? We would recommend nibbling on new ideas.
Positioning in our Morning Matters Portfolio off this chart and several other indicators moved to 100% cash on February 28th (see Flash Alert #446). We have started adding new buys and are 33% invested.
Stocks Futures Higher On The S&P 500
Lead Story: The Dow broke 30,000 and President Trump held a one minute press conference press conference, the shortest on record with no comments. (CNBC)
Market Tone: Lots of back and forth the last couple of weeks after the initial bounce off the September lows followed by October weakness into month’s end. With yesterday’s concession by President Trump can we shake the volatility? Time will tell.
Covid-19 Statistics: Recovered stats no longer tracked as only 37 reporting this statistic.
Total Cases 12,397,144 from 12,230,472
Deaths 250,925 from 248,897
New Tests 1,785,707 from 1,757,307
New Cases 166,672 from 150,975 with positivity rate +9.3% (up 0.8%)
Daily Deaths 2,028 (highest daily count since May 7, 2020)
Current Hospitalizations 88,080 from 85,836
Secondaries Priced: None of note.
Notes Priced of note: None of note.
Common Stock filings: EVOP of note.
Selling Shareholders of note: MCF of note.
Mixed Shelf Offerings: of note.
Convertible Offering Files: CLVS BILL of note.
Senior Notes Filed: None of note.
Earnings Out After The Close:
Beats: DELL +0.61, JWN +0.44, VMW +0.22, HPQ +0.10, ADSK +0.08, PSTG +0.01
Misses: GPS (0.08)
News After The Close:
Mesa (MESA) enters into a new 5 year contract with American (AAL) to operate 40 CRJ-900s.
Gap (GPS) names Asheesh Saksena as Chief Growth Officer and Sandra Stangi as new CEO at Banana Republic.
Dell (DELL) sees consumer direct business up 47%.
Mastercard (MA) data sees normalization but some area approaching growth.
CDC cuts quarantine suggested time from 14 days to 7 to 10 days.
Dividend Increase: BDX FIZZ (special $3.00) HPQ
Raises Guidance: VMW
Lowers Guidance: JWN
Stock Buyback New Or Increase:
Hourly Action: Last only three hours were positive. Yesterday, four were positive a bit better. Close 11/23.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.
S&P 500 Dow Jones Industrial Average NASDAQ Russell 2000 +26. Fair values are lower. Asia mixed with only Shanghai lower and Europe lower. VIX is at 23.85 this morning in futures. VIX closed at 21.64 and the three month futures at 24.84.
Gold and silver higher with copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.28 from $138.25 with the yield at 0.878% from 0.855%.
Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Energy, Financials and Materials of note.
Negative Sectors On Tuesday: None of note.
One Month Winners: Energy, Financials Real Estate and Industrials of note.
Three Month Winners: Industrials, Communication Services, Utilities and Financials of note.
Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Industrials, Technology and Materials of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services and Healthcare of note.
Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of: (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest with most visible names)
Today After the Close: TCOM of note.
Friday Before the Open: none of note.
Earnings This Morning Of Note:
Beats: DE +0.94
Misses: FRO (0.08)
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Chart – Updated 11/24 Close. Breakout ahead?
Gap Ups & Down In Early Pre-Market:
YJ +37%, MESA +17%, VNET +17%, BLCT +4%, HPQ +4%, JWN +4%, FIZZ +3%
NKLA -12%, GPS -12%, RETA -9%, FRO -9%, PSTG -7%, AEO -6%
Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.
5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens. (CNBC)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – . (CNBC)
Biggest Analyst Calls – . (CNBC)
Coronavirus Update: U.S. deaths top 1500 BUT easing begins. (CNBC)
Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, as promised, will put $455 in unspent funding back into an account that will require Congress to pass new act to access. (Bloomberg)
NYC looks to reopen schools in weeks. (WSJ)
Louisiana takes capacity at restaurants to 50% from 75%. (CBS News)
Peloton (PTON) losing orders to long wait times for delivery. (NY Post)
JD.com to raise $3.5 billion in Hong Kong IPO. (Bloomberg)
White House may remove European travel restrictions. (Reuters)
Stripe looks to IPO and seeks $70 billion valuation. (Bloomberg)
Nikola (NKLA) and GM yet to finalize a deal and both can walk away if no finalization by next week. (CNBC)
Stock Index Trading:
Current through 11/24 close. Nirvana has faded but has returned and overall confidence is at 100% from 87% (new addition).
Bold means a change from prior day.
The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 11/23 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. Volatility cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting.
Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT. Came in higher at 778,000.
Q2 GDP (second update) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to remain at 33.1%. In line.
October Durable Goods is due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 0.8% from 1.9%. Came in at 1.3%.
October New Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to rise to 977,000 from 959,000.
October Personal Income is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST and is expected to fall to 0.0% from 0.9%.
November University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment is due out at 10:00 a.m. EST as well and is expected to remain at 77.
Weekly Crude Oil is due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.
Weekly Natural Gas is due out at 12:00 p.m. EST.
Geopolitical & Related:
October FOMC Minutes are due out at 2:00 p.m. EST.
President Trump has no events scheduled.
Federal Reserve Speakers: None of note.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida speaks at 12:45 p.m. EDT.
Investor Meetings & Conferences of Note:
None of note.
Sellside Conferences: None of note.
Industry Conferences: None of note.
None of note.
Upgrades & Downgrades: A quiet day as we head into Thanksgiving.
Kroger Co. (KR)
by Superstock Investor
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