Wednesday, October 14, 2020
Weekly Chart of the S&P 500 Via SPY
We are updating our look at the S&P 500 via our favorite chart of SPY through Tuesday's close.
The Weekly Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel (Yellow Band) sees the current price back above the channel. As such, bias is now positive with SPY above the channel.
Second, the Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) is at 10.59 from -7.24. Above 0 is good and below 0 is bad. The current action is now back to positive.
Third, the Erlanger Crossover Spread (EC) Spread is back to positive as well at 16.60 from -51.96.
Last,the Erlanger Trend Direction (ETD) remains in rally mode.class="article">So what is an investor to do here? We would recommend to sell the biggest winners that are starting to pullback.
Positioning in our Morning Matters Portfolio off this chart and several other indicators moved to 100% cash on February 28th (see Flash Alert #446). We have started adding new buys and are 33% invested.
Stocks Futures Lower On The S&P 500 As We Roll Into Wednesday
Market Tone: Stocks rebounded nicely last week and yesterday were lower but did not close at the lows of the day. Overnight the S&P 500 rose until 5:00 a.m. EDT and then pulled back before getting back to flat as we published. Earnings season has kicked off and it is a strong start with the reports but the reactions are mixed.
Covid-19 Update With Latest Data From Monday
Total Cases 7,817,857 from 7,770,673
Recovered: 3,124,593 from 3,106,728
Deaths 207,557 from 206,881
Tests 894,411 from 1,003,578
Daily Deaths 669 from 663
Current Hospitalizations 36,034 from 35,056
source COVID tracking project
IPOs Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Priced: RCL ATEC of note.
Notes Priced of note: NVMI of note.
Common Stock filings: ETON ATEC SPNS OCUL LAZY of note.
Selling Shareholders of note: RPRX
Mixed Shelf Offerings: SRC of note.
Convertible Offering Files: None of note.
Senior Notes Filed: None of note.
Earnings After The Close:
None of note.
None of note.
News After The Close:
Several insurance companies update catastrophic loss estimates THG RNR ACGL AXS.
Six Flags (SIX) reduces workforce by 240.
Supreme Court rules that Census count can end early. Win for Trump Administration.
University of Florida suspends activities as Covid-19 cases rise.
Dividend Increase: CMI
Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks:
Hourly Action – Updated 10/12.
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.
S&P 500 +6 Dow Jones Industrial Average +87 NASDAQ +50 Russell 2000 +5. Fair values are lower. Asia higher and Europe lower. Current VIX is at 26.07 from 25.07. 3 month VIX Future is at 28.35 from 27.98.
Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139.25 from $138.92 with yields at 0.716% from 0.779%.
Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Communication Services and Consumer Cyclical of note.
Negative Sectors On Tuesday: Real Estate, Financials and Energy of note.
One Month Winners: Utilities, Real Estate, Industrials and Materials of note.
Three Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclicals, Technology and Real Estate of note.
Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Industrials of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.
Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services, Healthcare and Materials of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)
Today After The Close: UAL AA WAFD SNBR of note.
Thursday Morning: TSM MS SCHW TFC WBA SBNY WNS HOMB CMC PACW APHA of note.
MDRX +42% TLC +37% THTX + 11% GME +8% PPC +7% BBBY +7% of note.
SRNE -10% ATEC -9% OCUL -9% LAZY -6% of note.
Earnings This Morning Of Note
GS +4.18, PNC 1.28, UNH +0.43, ASML +0.29, USB +0.08, BAC +0.01 of note.
WFC (-0.06) of note.
Still To Report: PGR
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Line Chart – Updated 10/13 Close. The A/D line was mixed for a second day in a row.
Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves – BAC UNH GS (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)
Coronavirus update: Germany economic forecast lowered due to Covid-19. (CNBC)
Trump Administration is pushing for herd immunity. (NYT)
ConocoPhillips (COP) looking to buy Concho Resources (CXO). (Bloomberg)
AMC Entertainment (AMC) could run out of cash by year end. (Bloomberg)
Walmart (WMT) to limit store capacity to 20% during Black Friday. (Bloomberg)
Dollar General (DG) to open new chain hitting wealthy suburban shoppers. (CNN)
Stock Index Trading
Current through 10/13 close. All indexes remains positive.
Bold means a change from prior day.
The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 10/12 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting. Yesterday was the first day in 26 sessions where all indexes were below their historical range.
Weekly API Petroleum Institute Data came out at 4:30 p.m. EDT yesterday and .
September PPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.1% from 0.3%.
Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical & Related
President Trump delivers remarks to several economic clubs in the Rose Garden at 11:00 a.m. EDT. Then the president head to Des Moines to speak at 7:00 p.m. EDT.
Senate Judiciary Committee Hearings on Supreme Court Nominee Amy Coney Barrett continues today with questioning starting at 9:00 a.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Richard Clarida speaks at 9:00 a.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Governor Randall Quarles speaks at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
Investor Meetings & Conferences
ESTC ZM BIOL (Analyst Day)
Industry Conferences: Annual Child Neurology Society & 16th International Child Neurology Society Congress Meeting (10/12-10/23) Cowen Annual Therapeutics Conference (10/13-10/14)
Upgrades & Downgrades For Wednesday – 10/14
State Street Corporation (STT)
by Superstock Investor
©2021 Gold and Energy Options Trader, LLC. All rights reserved.