Monday, September 28, 2020
The Week Ahead For September 28th To October 2nd
The S&P 500 was lower for a fourth week in a row. The Russell 2000 and Dow Jones Industrial Average were lower as well while the NASDAQ 100 was higher.
1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Do we finally get a stimulus bill this week? The first Presidential Debate is held on Tuesday night.
2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims as well as Consumer Confidence, ADP Payroll Report, Q2 GDP (final), Pending Home Sales, Personal Income, ISM Manufacturing Index, Construction Spending, Nonfarm Payrolls/Unemployment report and Factory Orders.
3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases this upcoming week include WB THO MU MKC INFO PEP STZ CAG BBBY.
Monday, September 28
None of note.
Tuesday, September 29
September Consumer Confidence is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 88.5 from 84.8.
The first Presidential Debate happens between President Trump and Democratic Candidate Former Vice President Joe Biden in Cleveland, Ohio at 9:00 p.m. EDT.
Wednesday, September 30
ADP Payroll Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 600,000 from 428,000.
Q2 GDP (final) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to stay at -31.7%.
August Pending Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 3.2% from 5.9%. Thursday, October 1
August Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to -2.0% from 0.4%.
September ISM Manufacturing Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to stay at 56%.
August Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.8% from 0.1%.
Friday, October 2
September Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 800,000 from 1,370,000 and the unemployment rate is expected to drop to 8.2% from 8.4%.
August Factory Orders are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 1.2% from 6.4%.
Stocks Futures Are Higher By +42.75 On The S&P 500
Covid-19 Update With Latest Data From Friday
Total Cases 7,080,459 from 6,941,911
Recovered: 2,766,280 from 2,710,183
Deaths 196,869 from 194,852
New Cases reported 35,289 from 43,772
Tests 806,258 from 940,415
Deaths 866 from 1,157
Current Hospitalizations 29,432 from 30,043
source COVID tracking project
Capital Raises
IPOs Priced:
Secondaries Priced: None of note.
Notes Priced of note: None of note.
Common Stock filings: None of note. Selling Shareholders of note:
Mixed Shelf Offerings: ALK LNC AMRK CZR IMGN of note.
Convertible Offering Files: None of note.
Senior Notes Filed: None of note.
Earnings After The Close:
Beats:
None of note.
Misses:
None of note.
Hourly Action – A mixed week. Updated 9/24 close.
News After The Close:
Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) is getting a strong neutralizing anitbody response in Phase I/II on Covid-19.
Salesforce.com (CRM) discloses a 9.9% stake in Snowflake (SNOW).
3,500 U.S. companies have filed suits challenging the Trump Administration tariffs on Chinese goods. (Reuters)
Microsoft (MSFT) source code for XP and Windows Serever 2003 as leaked online. (The Verge)
S&P Small Cap 600 adds Chesapeake Utilities (CPK) on 10/1.
President Trump nominated Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court on Saturday.
Barron’s + on BDX DHW WST MASI HOLX QDEL GILD NVAX GSK PTON WDV.
Dividend Increase: ARTNA
Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: LMT MT
Guides Higher:
Stock Split:
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.
S&P 500 +48 Dow Jones Industrial Average +382 NASDAQ +211 Russell 2000 +25.59 . Fair values are lower. Asia mixed and Europe higher. VIX October futures are at 30.85 from 32.15 this morning. Current VIX is at 26.38 from 28.51.
Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139.59 from $139.61 with yields at 0.666% from 0.6548%.
Positive Sectors On Friday: Technology, Real Estate and Healthcare of note.
Negative Sectors On Friday: Energy of note.
One Month Winners: Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical and Industrials of note.
Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Materials and Technology of note.
Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Healthcare of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.
Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services and Materials of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)
Today After The Close: UNFI of note.
Tuesday Morning: ANGO INFO MKC of note.
Gap Up: PLL +114% GNFT +44% CPK +10% MT +8% CLF +8% SINA +6% WB +5% THO +5% MOBL +5% TLRY +5% CALM +5% CNTG +4% of note.
Gap Down: AQST -35% of note.
Earnings This Morning Of Note
Beat:
THO +0.74, CALM +0.15, SINA +0.04, WB +0.04 of note.
Missed:
None of note.
Still To Report:
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Line Chart – Updated 9/25.
The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 9/24 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting.
Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research Inc.
Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves. (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Ahead of Today’s Trading. (CNBC)
Corona Virus Update: Positivity rate hits 25% in some Midwestern states. (CNBC)
House Speaker Pelosi working on a stimulus plan at $2.4 trillion. (CNBC)
Senator Ted Cruz in CNBC interview does not believe a stimulus bill will be passed.
33 states are seeing increase in Covid-19 cases. (NYT)
President Trump paid $750 in taxes for 2016 and then 2017. The president paid no taxes in 10 of the previous 15 years.
American Airlines (AAL) closed at $5.48 billion loan with the U.S. government.
Airline industry could lay off 35,000 jobs this week. (The Washington Post)
Doubleline’s Jeffrey Gundlach threatens to leave California over high taxes. (Bloomberg)
Stock Index Trading
Current through 9/25 close. All indexes rose above their 5 day moving averages.
Bold means a change from prior day.
Economic
The latest short interest was out after the close for all NYSE and NASDAQ names and goes through settlement of 9/15 from 8/31. During this period, the S&P 500 fell -4.12% on a trade of 8/27 through 9/13. NYSE rose 0.30% and NASDAQ rose 0.70%.
Geopolitical & Related
President Trump will give an update on the Covid-19 Testing Strategy at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve New York President John Williams will speak at 9:10 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans will speak at 11:00 a.m. EDT.
Investor Events & Conference Calls
FSTR (Conference Call) BABA (Investor Day)
Sellside Conferences: Credit Suisse 2020 Autos Conference (9/28-9/30)
Industry Conferences: World Vaccine Congress (9/28-10/01)
M&A
Cleveland Cliffs (CLF) buy ArcelorMittal’s (MT) U.S. business for $1.4 billion.
MobileIron (MOBL) to be acquired for $7.05 in cash by Ivanti.
Enpro (NPO) to buy Alluxa for $255 million.
Sina (SINA) to go private at $43.30.
Upgrades & Downgrades For Monday – A busy day for recommendations.
McCormick & Company, Incorporated (MKC)
by Superstock Investor
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