Superstock Investor
Morning Briefing

Friday, September 25, 2020

Morning Matters:

Morning Matters Portfolio Update

For 2020, the S&P 500 is now up by 0.49% from 3.91%last week for the year while the Russell 2000 is now down by -12.99% from -7.54%. The Morning Matters Portfolio had pulled back to -6.57% for the year before we went to cash as the S&P 500 drew down to -30.75%. It is now at -4.97% from -5.26% two weeks ago so we have gained back 1.60% since we got invested. Expect more gains ahead.

The portfolio is now 33% invested long, 0% short and 67% in cash, net long 0%. Run as 12 stock portfolio it is up 506.90% through the end of 2019 and is now at 501.63%.

For a listing of all trades both open and closed simply look under Portfolio on the left hand side of the website.

Dividends are not included in our results unless there is a special one time payment.

We positioned in late December of 2018 that, "Markets are setting up for an epic buying opportunity last seen in 2015 or 2011". That has proven to be correct but the easy money is in.

A good start to 2020 moved into weakness due to coronavirus and then followed by a rebound not seen since 1930 and now we are potentially getting ready to move lower again.

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Market Matters:

Stocks Futures Are Lower By -12 On The S&P 500

Covid-19 Update With Latest Data From Thursday 

Total Cases 6,941,911 from 6,897,596

Recovered: 2,710,183 from 2,670,256

Deaths 194,852 from 193,912

Cases reported 43,772 from 38,204

Tests 940,415 from 842,963

Deaths 1,157 from 1,138

Hospitalizations 30,043 from 29,915

source COVID tracking project

Capital Raises

IPOs Priced: PMV Pharmaceuticals (PMVP) priced at $18 a share up from range of $15 to $17.Graybug Vision (GRAY) priced at $16  with a range of $15 to $17. Prelude Therapeutics (PRL)priced at $19 with range of $17 to $19.

Secondaries Priced:   of note.

Notes Priced of note:  of note.

Common Stock filings:  of note. Selling Shareholders of note: NTNX.

Mixed Shelf Offerings:  EPAM FCAP BUSE of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Earnings After The Close:

Beats:

SCHL +0.58, COST +0.33, AIR +0.22, TCOM +0.16 of note.

Misses:

MTN (0.29), CAMP (0.03) of note.

Hourly Action – A mixed week. Updated 9/24 close.

News After The Close:

Freshpet (FRPT) names Heather Pomerantzz as CFO.

Boeing (BA) wins $2.24 billion Air Force contract.

Facebook (FB) kicks off three networks tied to Russians.

SEC charges BMW Group (BMWYY) for giving inaccurate and misleading retail sales data to bond investors.

Dividend Increase: 

Reinstates Or Initiates Buybacks: STNG

Guides Higher: AVNT

Stock Split:

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 -6  Dow Jones Industrial Average -76 NASDAQ +27  Russell 2000 +0.38. Fair values are lower.  Asia mixed and Europe lower. VIX October futures are at 32.15 from 33 this morning. Current VIX is at 28.51 from 28.56.

Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139.61 from $139.53  with yields at 0.6548% from 0.664%.

Positive Sectors On Thursday:  Materials, Utilities and Real Estate.

Negative Sectors On Thursday:  Healthcare and Consumer Cyclical of note.

One Month Winners: Real Estate, Consumer Cyclical and Industrials of note.

Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclicals, Materials and Technology of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Healthcare of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.

Year to Date: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Communication Services and Materials of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close: None of note.

Monday Morning: THOR CALM GTT of note.

Gap Up:

CLNY +22%, PROS +15%, TELA +11%, ENDP +10%, NVAX +7%, ALT +6%, SAVA +5%, RDUS +5%, MRNS +5%, AVNT +5%, DVAX +4%, CVGI +4%

Gap Down:

FLR -5%, COST -3%

Earnings This Morning Of Note

Beat:

None of note.

Missed:

None of note.

Still To Report:

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Line Chart –  Updated 9/24.

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 9/24 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial. The correction cannot end until the EVL Range becomes normal again, i.e. no blue highlighting.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research Inc.

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves. (CNBC)

5 Things To Know Ahead of Today’s Trading. (CNBC)

Corona Virus Update: AstraZeneca wins partial immunity in EU. (CNBC)

EU Commission appeals General Court’s decision not to charge Apple (AAPL) in Ireland tax case.

Congress remains skeptical of a stimulus deal despite Pelosi offer. (Bloomberg)

Dr. Fauci says that after we get to a vaccine still will need masks and social distancing. (CNN)

Upcoming IPO Palantir Technologies is expected to have a $22 billion valuation. (WSJ)

Stock Index Trading

Current through 9/24 close. There was some deterioration yesterday the Russell & Midcap breaking below their 200 day moving averages.

Bold means a change from prior day.

Economic

The latest short interest was out after the close for all NYSE and NASDAQ names and goes through settlement of 9/15 from 8/31. During this period, the S&P 500 fell -4.12% on a trade of 8/27 through 9/13. NYSE rose 0.30% and NASDAQ rose 0.70%.

August Durable Goods are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 0.9% from 11.2%.

Baker Hughes Rig Count due out at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical & Related

President Trump wakes this morning in Miami. At 11:00 a.m. EDT he will participate in a Latinos for Trump Roundtable at 11:00 a.m. EDT. Then the president will head to Atlanta to speak on Black Economic Empowerment at 2:40 p.m. EDT. Then he heads back to Washington D.C. where he meets with supporters at the Trump International Hotel at 6:45 p.m. EDT. Finally, the president heads to Newport News to speak at a Make America Great Again Event at 9:00 p.m. EDT. While in Miami he also meets with Supreme Court Justice Candidate Barbara Lagoa.

Federal Reserve New York President John Williams will speak at 9:10 a.m. and 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Chicago President Charles Evans will speak at 11:00 a.m. EDT.

Investor Events & Conference Calls

None of note.

Sellside Conferences: None of note.

Industry Conferences: SEMICON Taiwan (9/23-9/25)

M&A

Upgrades & Downgrades For Friday – A quiet day for recommendations.


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Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

Darden Restaurants, Inc. (DRI)
by Superstock Investor


 

Restaurant owner Darden (DRI) is at $97.41 from $90 on Wednesday and just beat estimates. The company also reinstated its dividend. Is their value here?

Company Information

Company: Darden Restaurants, Inc.
Sector: Consumer Services
Industry: Restaurants
Market Cap:  $14,364,591,600

Targets

  Price %Gain  
Current Price $110.37    
Price Target $137.96 20.0%  
Upper Bound $172.45 56.3%  
Lower Bound $117.27 6.3%  

Stock data last updated 03/19/2019.

Data provided by QPI, Inc. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. QPI, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.

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