Friday, September 11, 2020
Morning Matters Portfolio Update
For 2020, the S&P 500 is now up by 3.22% from 7.85% two weeks ago for the year while the Russell 2000 is now down by -9.62% from -6.23%. The Morning Matters Portfolio had pulled back to -6.57% for the year before we went to cash as the S&P 500 drew down to -30.75%. It is now at -5.15% from -5.73% two weeks ago so we have gained back 1.42% since we got invested. Expect more gains ahead.
The portfolio is now 33% invested long, 0% short and 67% in cash, net long 0%. Run as 12 stock portfolio it is up 506.90% through the end of 2019 and is now at 501.74% from 501.17%.
For a listing of all trades both open and closed simply look under Portfolio on the left hand side of the website.
Dividends are not included in our results unless there is a special one time payment.
We positioned in late December of 2018 that, "Markets are setting up for an epic buying opportunity last seen in 2015 or 2011". That has proven to be correct but the easy money is in.
A good start to 2020 moved into weakness due to coronavirus and then followed by a rebound not seen since 1930 and now we are potentially getting ready to move lower again.
Stocks Futures Are Higher By +20 On The S&P 500
Morning Thought: Today is the 19th anniversary of 9/11. The world has changed since then in a myriad of ways and will continue to change this decade as terrorism will not fade. Here a nice summary of how 9/11 has changed in the pandemic. (AP)
Covid-19 Update With Latest Data From Thursday
Total Cases 6,366,986 from 6,329,405
Cases reported 37,581 from 30,983
Tests 614,042 from 584,412
Deaths 1,170 from 1,089
Hospitalizations 32,419 from 32,263
source COVID tracking project
Secondaries Priced: MNRL TRIL ITCI VRM QTNT AZEK FOUR TXG of note.
Notes Priced of note: None of note.
Common Stock filings: MNRL of note.
Mixed Shelf Offerings: PFSW note.
Convertible Offering Files: None of note.
Senior Notes Filed: None of note.
Earnings After The Close:
ZUMZ +0.69 PTON +0.15 PLAY +0.14 CHWY +0.08 ORCL +0.07 of note.
None of note.
Hourly Action – More hours are positive than negative despite the corrective action the last week.
News After The Close:
GW Pharmaceutical (GWPH) sees positive developments on Phase III Trials on MS.
Valmont (VMI) lifts share repurchase restrictions.
NYSE Short Interest fell by -0.26% while shorts increased NASDAQ bets by 3.31%.
Booking (BKNG) sees workforce reduction by 10%.
Chipotle (CMG) sees digital sales doubling this year to $2.4 billion.
Raises Guidance: CHWY
Dividend Raise: VICI AMT
Stock Repurchase Announcement: CLBK
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.
S&P 500 +11 Dow Jones Industrial Average +60 NASDAQ +36 Russell 2000 +8.35. Fair values are higher. Asia higher and Europemixed. VIX October futures are at 32.45 from 33.40 this morning. Current VIX is at 29.77 from 28.81.
Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139.38 from $139.30 with yields at 0.68% from 0.703%.
Positive Sectors On Thursday: None of note.
Negative Sectors On Thursday: Energy, Technology and Utilities of note.
One Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclical and Consumer Defensive of note.
Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology and Industrials of note.
Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Healthcare of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services of note.
Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare and Communication Services of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)
Today After The Close: None of note.
Monday Morning: None of note.
LYRA +14%, KODK +12%, PTON +12%, DQ +11%, ZUMZ +9%, RM +7%, ORCL +4%, IMUX +4%, DKNG +4%
AMRS -19%, MNRL -8%, QTNT -7%
Earnings This Morning Of Note
None of note.
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Line Chart – The back and forth for positive and negative breadth continues. Yesterday saw early strength fade into weakness. Update 9/9 as we await our data to be updated with new short interest.
The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 9/10 close. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial.
Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research Inc.
Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves. (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Ahead of Today’s Trading. (CNBC)
Corona Virus Update: Israel heads for a second lockdown, London Heathrow sees traffic down -81.5%. (CNBC)
Democratic Presidential Candidate Joe Biden says will raise corporate tax rate to 28%. (CNN)
Biden also notes will follow Trump's China policy. (WSJ)
President Trump says no extension on TikTok. (Reuters)
Fires continue to move across West. (NYT)
500,000 are evacuated from Oregon. (AP)
Stock Index Trading
Current through 9/10 close. The Russell and S&P 400 Mid Cap moved back above their 50 day moving averages.
Bold means a change from prior day.
August CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 0.3% from 0.6%.
The latest Treasury Budget update is due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT. Last month saw a drop of $200.3 billion.
Geopolitical & Related
President Trump will head to Shanksville, PA to pay respects to 9/11 victims this morning. At 3:00 p.m. EDT, the president will present the Medal of Honor award to Sergeant Thomas Payne at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
Investor Events & Conference Calls
CATB (Webcast) NPTN (Conference Call)
Sellside Conferences: Morgan Stanley Industrials CEO Unplugged Conference (9/9-9/11) Credit Suisse Global Steel & Mining Conference (9/9-9/11) KBW Insurance Conference (9/11) UBS Covid-19 Vaccine Symposium (9/11)
Industry Conferences: Advanced Therapies Congress & Expo (9/8-9/11)
Upgrades & Downgrades For Friday 9/11 –
Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
by Superstock Investor
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