Superstock Investor
Morning Briefing

Friday, August 21, 2020

Morning Matters:

Morning Matters Portfolio Update

For 2020, the S&P 500 is now up by 4.78% from 4.42% last week for the year while the Russell 2000 is now down by -6.24% from -5.32%. The Morning Matters Portfolio had pulled back to -6.57% for the year before we went to cash as the S&P 500 drew down to -30.75%. It is now at -5.05% from -5.64%% last week so we have gained back 1.52% since we got invested. Expect more gains ahead.

The portfolio is now 33% invested long, 0% short and 67% in cash, net long 0%. Run as 12 stock portfolio it is up 506.90% through the end of 2019 and is now at 501.85% from 501.25%.

For a listing of all trades both open and closed simply look under Portfolio on the left hand side of the website.

Dividends are not included in our results unless there is a special one time payment.

We positioned in late December of 2018 that, "Markets are setting up for an epic buying opportunity last seen in 2015 or 2011". That has proven to be correct but the easy money is in.

A good start to 2020 moved into weakness due to coronavirus and then followed by a rebound not seen since 1930 and now we are potentially getting ready to move lower again.

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Market Matters:

Stocks Futures Are Lower By -22 On The S&P 500

Covid-19 Update With Latest Data

Cases reported 43,245 from 45,103 cases.

Tests 635,605 from 680,896

Positivity Rate 6.80% from 6.62%

Deaths 1,117 from 1,416

Hospitalizations 41,968 from 43,313

Mortality Rate at 3.00% no change

source COVID tracking project

Capital Raises

IPOs Priced: None of note.

Secondaries Priced: None of note.

Notes Priced of note:  None of note.

Common Stock filings:   (Selling Shareholder Offerings) DKL  MIST MTBC  of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings:  KMT UNM of note.

Convertible Offering Files:  None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beats:

KEYS +0.35, ROST +0.15, OSIS +0.12 of note.

Misses:

GAN (0.32)of note.

Flat:

News After The Close:

Great Lakes Dredge & Dock (GLDD) wins major dredging awards totaling $117.8 million.

Science Applications (SAIC) wins $133 million Navy contract.

Facebook (FB) CEO Mark Zuckerberg interviewed by FTC regarding Antitrust Probe. (Politico)

U.S. Allies reject Trump demand to start sanctions again on Iran.

Toronto Dominion Bank (TD) pays $97 million in restitution and $25 million in civil penalties as settles with CFPB.

MobileIron (MOBL) may explore a possible sale per Bloomberg.

Former Trump Advisor Steve Bannon plead not guilty after being arrested for defrauding donors and was let go on a $5 million bond.

Raises Guidance: 

Lowers Guidance: 

Mixed Guidance: OSIS

Raises Dividend: NSA

Cut Dividend:

Stock Split Announcement: 

Stock Buyback: PCSB

10Q Delays: 

Hourly Action: This week sees strength early and weakness late. 8/20 updated.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.

S&P 500 -13 Dow Jones Industrial Average -97 NASDAQ -12 Russell 2000 -9.6. Fair values are mixed. Asia higher and Europe mixed. VIX September futures are at 26.25 from 26.87 this morning. Current VIX is at 22.52 from 21.93.

Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139.61 from $139.53 with yields at 0.636% from 0.644%.

Positive Sectors On Thursday:  Communication, Technology and Real Estate of note.

Negative Sectors On Thursday: Energy, Utilities and Financials of note.

One Month Winners: Industrials, Consumer Cyclical and Consumer Defensive of note.

Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology and Industrials of note.

Six Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology, Materials and Healthcare of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services of note.

Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare and Communication Services of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close: None of note.

Monday Morning: None of note.

Gap Up: SCPH +12%, XERS +9%, BNTX +8%, TLSA +7%, MOBL +7%, DE +4%, KEYS +4%

Gap Down: GAN -14%, PDD -9%

Earnings This Morning Of Note

Beat:

PDD +1.33, DE +1.32, BZUN +0.74, BKE +0.65, UI +0.09, FL +0.02 of note.

Flat:

Missed:

MMYT (0.06) of note.

Still to Report: 

Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Line Chart – The trend is becoming pretty obvious. Close 8/20.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research Inc.

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. 

5 Things to Know Before The Market Opens Today. (CNBC)

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves. (CNBC)

Coronavirus Update: Former FDA Commissioner Scott Gottlieb warns of a third wave that is more pervasive. (CNBC)

A Tropical Depression will head into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. (NHC)

Final night of the Democratic Convention culminates in speech from Presidential Candidate Joe Biden. (CNBC)

Retailers rush to file for bankruptcy as Covid-19 fears of second wave heat up. (CNBC)

NBA will likely delay the next season starting on December 1st. (ESPN)

Stock Index Trading

Current through 8/20 close. The Russell 2000, Dow and Mid Cap see the 5 day moving average crossing below the 10 day moving average.

Bold means a change from prior day.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 8/20 close. EVL Ranges are again starting to get back to normal with the recent action, pay attention The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Economic

July Existing Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to grow by 5.39 million from 4.72 million last month.

Geopolitical & Related

President Trump will  deliver remarks at the 2020 Council for National Policy Meeting at 11:00 a.m. EDT and then begin to prepare for the Republican Convention next week.

Postmaster General Louis DeJoy will testify before the Republican controlled Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

Investor Events & Conference Calls

AFYA  EFSC (Conference Call) NVS (Investor Call)

Sellside Conferences: Santander Brazil Conference (8/17-8/21)

Industry Conferences:

M&A

Upgrades & Downgrades For Friday 8/21 – 

 

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Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

Constellation Brands, Inc. Class A (STZ)
by Superstock Investor


 

Today we look at Constellation Brands (STZ). Current price is $178.34.

Company Information

Company: Constellation Brands, Inc. Class A
Sector: Food Beverage & Tobacco
Industry: Distillers & Vintners
Market Cap:  $34,947,760,100

Targets

  Price %Gain  
Current Price $167.33    
Price Target $150.60 -11.1%  
Upper Bound $188.25 12.5%  
Lower Bound $128.01 -23.5%  

Stock data last updated 03/19/2019.

Data provided by QPI, Inc. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. QPI, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.

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