Wednesday, August 12, 2020
Weekly Timing Chart Of The S&P 500
We are updating our look at the S&P 500 via our favorite chart of SPY through Tuesday's close.
The Weekly Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel (Yellow Band) sees the current price above the channel. As such, bias is positive with a breakout above the channel. The last change was at the end of April as it moved above its DMA Channel from below the channel.
Second, the Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) is at 20.43 from 20.60. Above 0 is good and below 0 is bad. The current action is positive.
Third, the Erlanger Crossover Spread (EC) Spread is now positive at 25.98 from 14.95.
Last,the Erlanger Trend Direction (ETD) remains in an uptrend.
class="article">So what is an investor to do here? We would recommend selective buys.
Positioning in our Morning Matters Portfolio off this chart and several other indicators moved to 100% cash on February 28th (see Flash Alert #446). We have started adding new buys and are 33% invested.
Stocks Futures Are Higher By +26 On The S&P 500
Breaking Story: Media Mogul Sumner Redstone head of CBS and Viacom (VIAC) has died at age 97.
Latest Short Interest Data For Short Interest Through July 31st on a settlement date basis:
Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.
Covid-19 Update With Tuesday Data
Cases reported 55,594 from 41,807
Tests 739,083 from 716,229
Positivity Rate 7.52% from 5.84%
Deaths 1,326 from 426
Hospitalizations 48.500 from 48,612
Mortality Rate 3.05% from 3.06%
source COVID tracking project
IPOs Priced: None of note.
Secondaries Priced: AEP PLUG UPLD OSTK PACB HLX PSNL MER SSTK of note.
Notes Priced of note: KKR PRFT W of note.
Common Stock filings: OSTK TRVN ADVM PLUG VRT PSNL GFF STC PACB ATHX IRTC STNE ALPN(selling shareholders)PRTS (selling shareholders) PINC (selling shareholders) SWN of note.
Mixed Shelf Offerings: NFG REPL BKD MCRB of note.
Convertible Offering Files: HLX of note.
Senior Notes Filed: BCE of note.
Courtesy of IPO Financial
Earnings After The Close:
CVET +0.14 TXG +0.13 LRN +0.08 HCAT +0.07 SWAV +0.07 HBM +0.05 VIAV +0.05 NARI +0.02 KRNT +0.02 of note.
OSPN -0.02 of note.
Hourly Tracking – Updated Through 8/11. One extreme or the other this week.
News After The Close:
Democratic Presidential Candidate Joe Biden selects Senator Kamala Harris to be the Vice Presidential pick.
Wolverine Worldwide (WWW) names Brendan Hoffman as next President and will transition to CEO over time.
Assets grow as the following IVZ AB APAM BEN WDR
Raises Guidance Raised: SUPN
Lowers Guidance: SMCI LMND
Cut Dividend: WYND
Stock Split Announcement: TSLA (5:1)
Stock Buyback: AFL
10Q Delays: FLR OSPN
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. Futures hit the peak around 6:00 a.m. EDT at 3360 and currently are at 3354 on the S&P 500.
S&P 500 +27 Dow Jones Industrial Average +308 NASDAQ +83 Russell 2000 +24.80. Fair values are mixed. Asia mixed and Europe now higher. VIX futures are at 27.25 from 26.34 this morning. Current VIX is at 2 from 20.15.
Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro,higher vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139.17 from $139.64 with yields at 0.675% from 0.633%.
Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Financials, Industrials and Energy of note.
Negative Sectors On Tuesday: Utilities, Technology and Real Estate of note.
One Month Winners: Materials, Consumer Cyclical and Technology of note.
Three Month Winners: Consumer Cyclical, Technology and Materials of note.
Six Month Winners: Technology,Consumer Cyclical and Healthcare of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Technology, Healthcare, Consumer Cyclical and Communication Services of note.
Year to Date: Technology, Consumer Cyclical, Healthcare and Communication Services of note.
Gap Up: CBMG +37%, HBM +128%, MRNA +10%, CNR +9%, BLDR +9%, FBK +8%, LRN +7%, NARI +6%, TSLA +6%, ALPN +6%, ALEC +6%, KODK +6%, XP +5%, CDE +5%, CXW +4%
Gap Down: OSPN -26%, JMIA -19%, TRVN -16%, PLUG -9%, VIR -9%, RRGB -8%, PSNL -8%, HCAT -7%, LMND -6%, SMCI -6%, OSTK -5%, OMER -5%, VIAV -4%
Upcoming Earnings Of (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)
Today After The Close: VIPS CAE PFGC AIT EAT PGTI TUFN of note.
Thursday Morning: BABA NTES UI IIVI TPR KRTX WCC FLR AZUL TGP JKS TNK of note.
Earnings This Morning Of Note
EAT +0.49 APG +0.20 TUFN +0.14 AIT +0.11 PGTI +0.05 of note.
LMND -0.90 PFGC -0.62 of note.
Still to Report: CAE
Erlanger Research Advance/Decline Line Chart – We are no longer showing our proprietary advance/decline model as it is available on a subscription basis. Instead we are now showing a chart of the advance/decline. We hope you enjoy. Close 8/11. There is no chart today as we are updating the latest short interest data and prices still reflect Monday Close. Overall, the A/D Line was only -383 despite the drop on Tuesday.
Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research Inc.
Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story. This section has limited updates.
5 Things To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg)
5 Things to Know Before The Market Opens On Tuesday. (CNBC)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves (CNBC)
Coronavirus Update: Singapore sees lowest cases in months. (CNBC)
U.S. to buy 100 million doses of vaccine from Moderna (MRNA). (CNBC)
Chinese President Xi wants China to move to a domestic economy. (WSJ)
China will bring up TikTok and WeChat in 8/15 discussions. (Bloomberg)
Trump may cut off TikTok from App stores. (CNBC)
Stimulus stalemate could last weeks. (Bloomberg)
TikTok used banned tactic in Google’s (GOOGL) Android operating system. (WSJ)
Airbnb to file IPO this month. (WSJ)
Stein Mart (SMRT) files for Chapter 11.
OPEC releases August Oil Market Report and sees global growth dropping to -4% from -3.7% in 2020. 2021 sees 4.7%.
Stock Index Trading
Current through 8/11 close. Several indexes had minor breaks their respective moving averages in the afternoon selloff.
Bold means a change from prior day.
Algo/HFT Trading Levels:
The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 8/11 close. EVL Ranges are starting to get back to normal with the recent action but it is still haphazard. The Erlanger Value Line are available in Bloomberg for your review. Simply visit the Bloomberg App store at APP(GO) then find Erlanger Research and setup a trial.
Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.
Weekly API Petroleum Data was released at 4:30 p.m. EDT yesterday and saw a draw of 4.40 million barrels.
MBA Mortgage Applications are out and rose 6.8% after falling -5.1% last week.
July CPI is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and expected to fall 0.3% from 0.6% last month. Came in at 0.6%.
Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.
July Treasury Budget is due out at 7:45 a.m. EDT.
Geopolitical & Related
President Trump will participate in Kids First: Getting America’s Children Safely Back to School at 3:00 p.m. EDT.
$38 billion of 10 Year Notes to be auctioned at 1:00 p.m. EDT.
Investor Events & Conference Calls
ONCY (Fireside Chat)
Sellside Conferences: John Tumazos Very Independent Research Metals Conference 2020. (8/10-8/14). Wedbush PacGrow Healthcare Conference (8/11-8/12). Cannaccord Genuity Annual Growth Conference (8/11-8/13). Oppenheimer Annual Technology, Internet and Communications Conference (8/11-8/12). UBS Annual Financial Services Conference (8/11-8/12). Raymond James Aspen Energy Summit (8/12-8/13). Citi One on One Midstream Infrastructure 2020 (8/12-8/13). Bank of America Best of SMID Cap Ideas For 2H 2020 Conference (8/12).
Industry Conferences: BioProcess International West (8/10-8/13). Society of American Gastrointestinal and Endoscopic Surgeons Annual Meeting (8/11-8/13).
Liberty Global (LBTYA) buys Sunrise Communications Group
Cellular Biomedicine (CBMG) to go private at $19.75.
Southwestern Energy (SWN) to buy Montage Resources (MR).
Upgrades & Downgrades – Tuesday Upgrades & Downgrades 8/12
Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:
Fluor Corporation (FLR)
by Superstock Investor
Fluor (FLR) will report earnings tomorrow morning and the current price is $12.23 down from $60 in the fall of 2018.
||Construction & Engineering
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