Friday, May 08, 2020
Morning Matters Portfolio Update
For 2020, the S&P 500 is now down by -10.82% from -13.40% last week for the year while the Russell 2000 is now down by -23.11% from -27.23% from last week.
The Morning Matters Portfolio was down by -6.57% for the year before we went to cash. We went to 100% cash at 12:15 p.m. EDT on February 28th for the first time since we began the portfolio and are down -6.57% for the year. The S&P 500 for the year is down -10.82% and the Russell 2000 is down -23.11%.
The portfolio is now 0% invested long, 0% short and 100% in cash, net long 0%. For 2017, the value of the portfolio was 970.84%. Run as 12 stock portfolio it is up 497.74%.
For a listing of all trades both open and closed simply look under Portfolio on the left hand side of the website.
Dividends are not included in our results unless there is a special one time payment.
We positioned in late December of 2018 that, "Markets are setting up for an epic buying opportunity last seen in 2015 or 2011". That has proven to be correct but the easy money is in.
A good start to 2020 has moved into weakness due to coronavirus as we are now in our first full blown bear market in eleven years.
Stocks Higher This Morning With S&P 500 +38
IPOs on deck: Knight Cloud (KC) prices at $17.00 with a reported range of $16 to $18.
IPOs Filed: None of note.
Secondaries Priced: SAVE AXNX DHR of note.
Notes Priced of note: EYE LMNX of note.
Common Stock filings: AXNX SHOP of note.
Mixed Shelf Offerings: KALA EIG OMI NBHC of note.
Convertible Offering Files: None of note.
Senior Notes Filed: None of note.
Courtesy of IPO Financial
Earnings After The Close:
SAGE +0.73, FSLR +0.54, TTD +0.49, QRVO +0.49, ARNA +0.42, STMP +0.33, TPIC +0.30, MTD +0.27, PBYI +0.25, AAXN +0.23, UPLD +0.23, IRTC +0.22, HLF +0.22, FLT +0.20, MSI +0.19, ICUI +0.18, BJRI +0.18, PRAA +0.18, LNT +0.18, VECO +0.16, OMCL +0.15, OLED +0.15, ITGR +0.12, CWH +0.12, CARG +0.12, QLYS +0.12, ENV +0.12, PFPT +0.11, RDFN +0.11, MCHP +0.11, GH +0.10, SPWR +0.10, POWI +0.10, SYNA +0.08, APPN +0.08, OEC +0.08, ZG +0.08, CWST +0.08, TRUE +0.08, ALRM +0.08, AL +0.07, COLD +0.07, SAIL +0.07, BHVN +0.07, KMPR +0.06, BILL +0.06, TRHC +0.06, AVLR +0.06, SXI +0.06, IPHI +0.05, LHCG +0.05, LSI +0.05, MNST +0.04, DBX +0.04, TDC +0.04, NUAN +0.04, PRDO +0.04, DLR +0.03, LOPE +0.03, PCTY +0.03, KTOS +0.03, NWSA +0.03, CTSH +0.03, DOX +0.02, ELY +0.02, FLEX +0.02, MMI +0.02, REG +0.02, NET +0.02, ALTR +0.02, RBA +0.02, DEI +0.01, ROKU +0.01, SVMK +0.01, CUBE +0.01 of note.
Flat: CCRN +0.00, FISV +0.00, GPRO +0.00, MAIN +0.00, MTG +0.00, RPD +0.00
PDCE (8.14), BECN (1.72), BKNG (1.37), NNI (1.11), UBER (0.80), COLL (0.65), AGO (0.41), FGEN (0.41), VSLR (0.33), SKYW (0.32), ADT (0.28), MRTX (0.27), SWX (0.25), LYV (0.24), POST (0.24), RGNX (0.21), FLS (0.18), BCC (0.15), PEN (0.13), CPT (0.12), CWK (0.12), MDU (0.12), YELP (0.10), ACAD (0.10), EOG (0.10), TWST (0.10), GMED (0.09), TRIP (0.09), PBA (0.08), SCOR (0.07), PRA (0.07), MTW (0.07), DLX (0.07), AIV (0.06), MDRX (0.06), CYRX (0.06), GLUU (0.06), WRI (0.06), ED (0.06), HST (0.05), ECOL (0.05), GKOS (0.04), EQH (0.03), NKTR (0.03), PODD (0.03), CNDT (0.02), AQN (0.02), CVA (0.02), PEB (0.01), AMH (0.01), BRX (0.01) of note.
CWH +25%, HLF +16%, SPWR +12%, IPHI +11%, VECO +11%, SKYW +10%, LSI +8%, PEB +83%, CARG +8%, CNDT +8%, UBER +8%, MTG +7%, GH +7%, AAXN +7%, PBYI +6%, SAIL +6%, SVMK +6%, QRVO +6%, CVA +6%, ITGR +5%, KTOS +5%, DBX +5%, AL +5%, GPRO +5%, PRDO +4%, FDP +4%, FLEX +4%, ARNA +4%,
LOPE -10%, NET-10%, ROKU -9%, MSI -9%, FLDM -9%, TTD -8%, KALA -8%, APPN -8%, QLYS -7%, CYRX -7%, TRUE -7%, STMP -6%, ADT -6%, TDC -6%, HST -5%, UPLD -5%, SYNA -4%, ICUI -4%, GKOS -4%, OMCL -4%, MDRX -4%, YELP -4%, ALTR -4%.
Hourly Action This Past Week: Updated 5/6 Close
News After The Close (In Order)
Fiserv (FISV) announces a CEO succession plan.
Ford (F) details how it will restart production.
Nielsen (NLSN) files registration statement to spin off Global Connect.
Charles Schwab (SCHW) to buy Motif in cash deal, no terms.
Lowers Guidance: KTOS (Q2, 2020) MSI (Q2) DLR ZG (Q2) DOX (Q3) AVLR QLYS PCTY (Q4) APPN (Q2) SVMK (Q2) ALTR (Q2) ALRM RPD (Q2) ENV ED TRHC (Q2) HMSY AVA EXC (Q2) ROAD
Raises Guidance: QRVO (Q1) PFPT (Q2) MDT (Q2) QLYS (Q2) IPHI (Q2) GLUU ENV (Q2) PRDO UPLD (Q2, 2020)
Withdraws 2020 Guidance: TTD MDRX GH MSI FLT OLED FISV AAXN DEI LSI APPN TDC ITGR SAIL CWST LHCG TWST INTU VSLR SCOR POST CUBE SIEGY XRAY EVTC
Dividend Increase: GLT MCHP RLI AQN
Dividend Cut: PRA SHO (Suspended)
Share Buyback Announcements: FDP
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.
S&P 500 +36 Dow Jones Industrial Average +297 NASDAQ +99 Russell 2000 +31.17 Fair values are higher. Asia and Europe higher.
Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and higher vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139.30 from $138.63 unchanged with yields at from 0.70%.
Positive Sectors On Thursday: Materials, Energy, Financials, Communication Services and Technology of note .
Negative Sectors On Thursday: Consumer Staples of note.
One Month Winners: Materials, Conglomerates, Financials and Services of note.
Three Month Winners: None of note.
Six Month Winners: Healthcare and Technology of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Healthcare, Technology and Consumer Goods of note.
Year to Date: None of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)
Today After The Close: None of note.
Monday Before The Open: MAR ZBH ETR CAH MYL ON CLR OHH BLUE ORA ICPT UNVR UAA CNK MGLN CLF AVYA XHR of note.
Earnings This Morning Of Note
BLMN +1.34, LEA +0.72, TEN +0.65, UFS +0.31, CRON +0.27, UI +0.26, VGR +0.21, IBP +0.17, NBL +0.16, NWN +0.16, HSC +0.14, ESNT +0.13, TILE +0.12, SEAS +0.09, XRAY +0.08, VTR +0.08, HMSY +0.07, AVA +0.07, CATM +0.04, SABR +0.03, EXC +0.02, CARR +0.02, TWNK +0.01, KIM +0.01, BIP +0.01 of note.
GTT (1.24), NJR (0.31), ATH (0.24), SR (0.21), EVOP (0.20), BR (0.03), OUT (0.02), ROAD (0.01) of note.
Flat: SSP +0.00, HEES +0.00
Still to Report: AXL, BPMP, EVTC, PNW, PPL, SHO, SWCH
Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.
5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves. (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens For Friday. (CNBC)
Coronavirus update: WHO calls for investigation into Wuhan market.
U.S. Coronavirus Map update.
The U.S. and China spoke by phone and they are moving forward with Phase One Trade Deal. (WSJ)
Wendy's (WEN) to investigate price hikes of meat suppliers. NY Post)
Moderna (MRNA) CEO interviewed on CNBC. (CNBC)
Walt Disney (DIS) sells out Shanghai Disneyland in minutes after reopening. (Bloomberg)
Tesla (TSLA) reopens its Fremont, California plant today. (Bloomberg)
Uber (UBER) CEO in CNBC interview notes will not be profitable in Q4 but will be in 2021. (CNBC)
Stock Index Tracking
Current through 5/7 close. Moving averages saw improvment yesterday.
Bold means a change from prior day.
The advance/decline line model is now a buy on 4/2 close. Updated through 5/7 close. In 2019, the model was up 16.48% on the S&P 500 and this year is up 5.69% with the S&P 500 lower by -10.82% through yesterday. Now 6 buy signals and 4 cash signals in 2019 and 2020. The latest buy is up 15.21% through Thursday’s close.
Algo/HFT Trading Levels:
The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 5/7 close. EVL Ranges remain above normal and are highlighted in blue BUT are starting to drop.
Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.
Economic & Related:
April Nonfarm Payrolls is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to -21 million from -701,000. The Unemployment Rate is expected to rise to 16.6% from 4.4%. Came in at 14.7% and -20.5 million.
Geopolitical & Related
President Trump will visit the World Ware II Memorial.
Meetings, Calls & Conferences
Investor/Analyst Days & Conference Calls of Note: None of note.
Sellside Conferences: D.A. Davidson Financial Institutions Conference (5/6-5/8)
Industry Conferences: None of note.
Upgrades & Downgrades
Clorox Company (CLX)
by Superstock Investor
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