Wednesday, May 06, 2020
Weekly Timing Chart Of The S&P 500
We are updating our look at the S&P 500 via our favorite chart of SPY through Tuesday's close.
The Weekly Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel (Yellow Band) sees the current price abpve the channel. As such, bias is positive with a breakout above the channel.
Second, the Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) is at -0.03 from 5.56. Above 0 is good and below 0 is bad. The current action is now negative.
Third, the Erlanger Crossover Spread (EC) Spread is now positive at 68.60 from 65.
Last,the Erlanger Trend Direction (ETD) remains at uptrend.
So what is an investor to do here? We would recommend selective buys here.
Positioning in our Morning Matters Portfolio off this chart and several other indicators moved to 100% cash on February 28th (see Flash Alert #446). We look to starting on the next pullback.
Stocks Higher This Morning With S&P 500 +17
Breaking News: CNBC interview Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard in a thoughtful interview. (CNBC)
IPOs on deck: None of note.
IPOs Filed: None of note.
Secondaries Priced: NCLH SILK of note.
Notes Priced of note: BLMN of note.
Common Stock filings: KURA SILK NCMI of note.
Mixed Shelf Offerings: CHUY MHK of note.
Convertible Offering Files: None of note.
Senior Notes Filed: None of note.
Courtesy of IPO Financial
Earnings After The Close:
DOOR +0.62, ZGNX +0.46, PAA +0.36, DVA +0.35, CAKE +0.34, EA +0.32, SBAC +0.31, DVN +0.26, SFM +0.25, VOYA +0.24, ALL +0.23, CC +0.22, EVBG +0.21, ANET +0.21, NVRO +0.21, AXNX +0.20, IOSP +0.19, SLF +0.18, CMP +0.18, CNO +0.18, MTCH +0.14, ATGE +0.14, PKI +0.14, SUPN +0.14, MELI +0.13, ACLS +0.12, KLAC +0.11, BYND +0.11, OSPN +0.11, ATVI +0.11, NEX +0.09, ATSG +0.09, OXY +0.09, PLMR +0.08, CDK +0.07, ENPH +0.06, EXEL +0.06, GTES +0.06, ONTO +0.06, MODN +0.05, BLKB +0.05, SRC +0.04, VRSK +0.04, COHU +0.04, FMC +0.03, INGN +0.03, AXTA +0.02, RSG +0.02, WU +0.02, KGC +0.02, SU +0.02, ICFI +0.02, BGS +0.01, PEAK +0.01, MEOH +0.01, TCO +0.01 of note.
Flat: ASH +0.00, AIZ +0.00, BTG +0.00, CAMP +0.00, EQR +0.00, HTA +0.00, MATX +0.00, STOR +0.00
TSLX (1.29), ORCC (1.17), WES (1.07), RGA (1.02), DK (0.77), PRU (0.48), LC (0.38), JAZZ (0.38), BCO (0.37), LPSN (0.36), DIS (0.30), MAT (0.20), SIGI (0.18), GNW (0.18), PLNT (0.17), HA (0.16), NVTA (0.15), SPCE (0.12), MYGN (0.10), INSP (0.07), OTTR (0.07), DHT (0.07), JBGS (0.04), AKCA (0.03), PINS (0.01), PRO (0.01), NCMI (0.01), BLDP (0.01) of note.
LPSN +21%, MELI +15%, SUPN +12%, NEX +9%, BYND +8%, AXNX +7%, ORCC +7%, CC +7%, GSX +6%, CAMP +6%, OSPN +6%, SRC +6%, MEOH +6%, DVN +6%, OXY +6%, RSG +5%, ATSG +5%, NIO +5%, ENPH +5%, DVA +5%, EVBG +5%, DK +5%, ATVI +4%, BGS +4%, CDTX +4%,
PINS -17%, INGN -11%, NCMI -8%, SILK -7%, JAZZ -6%, MYGN -6%, VRT -6%, MAT -5%, PAGP -5%, ANET -4%, INSP -4%
Hourly Action This Past Week: Updated 5/5 Close
News After The Close (In Order)
Lab Corp (LH) antibody test is now available through Labcorp.com.
Disney + (DIS) sees subscribers rise to 54 million.
Raytheon Technologies (RTX) wins $325 million Navy contract.
Fitch takes Brazil to Negative.
Nordstrom (JWN) to close 16 full line stores permanently. Full restructuring underway.
Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg was hospitalized for acutre cholecystitis, will participate in arguments tomorrow.
Lowers Guidance: EA SBAC ANET ENPH JAZZ FMC LPSN OTTR
Raises 2020 Guidance: ATVI EVBG SFM BGS NTNX
Withdraws 2020 Guidance: BYND RSG MAT PKI HTA CC JBGS
Dividend Cut or Suspension: COHU DIS SU OSB
Dividend Increase: PEP
Share Buyback Announcements:
What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction.
S&P 500 +12 Dow Jones Industrial Average +105 NASDAQ +60 Russell 2000 +6.69 Fair values are higher. Asia mixed and Europe higher.
Gold lower, silver higher with copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $138.63 from $138.83 with yields at 0.70% from 0.66%.
Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Healthcare. Technology and Utilities of note .
Negative Sectors On Tuesday: Financials of note.
One Month Winners: Materials, Conglomerates, Financials and Services of note.
Three Month Winners: None of note.
Six Month Winners: Healthcare and Technology of note.
Twelve Month Winners: Healthcare, Technology and Consumer Goods of note.
Year to Date: None of note.
Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)
Today After The Close: PYPL TMUS EQIX MET FNV ES MFC WCN SQ AWK AVB ANSS NTR WELL of note.
Thursday Before The Open: DHR BMY BDX BUD ENB RTX FIS BCE XEL BLL HLT CTVA SPG CNQ ABC MRNA of note.
Earnings This Morning Of Note
SMG +0.92, NXST +0.79, SBGI +0.63, ASTE +0.61, ALXN +0.51, SPR +0.47, SHOP +0.36, STNG +0.31, CVS +0.28, BWA +0.28, GM +0.28, IMOS +0.25, CARS +0.24, GSX +0.19, HZNP +0.19, TMHC +0.17, FTS +0.16, WD +0.16, ALE +0.16, RGEN +0.10, RES +0.09, ROCK +0.09, NYT +0.08, ZTS +0.08, BPMC +0.05, GPN +0.05, FTDR +0.05, ODP +0.05, OSB +0.04, VMC +0.04, DISCA +0.03, WING +0.03, EAF +0.02, KKR +0.01, SBH +0.01, GCP +0.01, CGEN +0.01 of note.
FUN (2.11), BG (2.01), WYND (1.53), ARES (0.75), BCOR (0.68), IONS (0.23), PZZA (0.20), HEP (0.19), PSN (0.13), FMS (0.09), AEP (0.08), ENBL (0.08), TCP (0.06), NI (0.05), PAG (0.04), MEET (0.03), AQUA (0.03), CBZ (0.03), INMD (0.02), KL (0.01), IAA (0.01), MYE (0.01), DNOW (0.01), RDWR (0.01) of note.
Flat: CDW +0.00, WM +0.00, FLIR +0.00, AVNS +0.00, GOLD +0.00, WEN +0.00, OMI +0.00
Still to Report:
Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.
5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
Stocks Making The Biggest Moves. (CNBC)
5 Things To Know Before The Market Opens For Wednesday. (CNBC)
Coronavirus update: U.S. Food Industry rebounds. Germany looks to reopening.
U.S. Coronavirus Map update.
U.S. wants EU to join inquiry into China’s handling of COVID-19, but they are reluctant. (WSJ)
China says U.S. has no evidence that COVID-19 was leaked from Wuhan Lab. (Bloomberg)
50% of workers are meat plants have tested positive for COVID-19. (Bloomberg)
Gilead Sciences (GILD) looks to expand their global supply of Remdesivir. (Reuters)
Airlines are burning $10 billion a month. (Reuters)
Stock Index Tracking
Current through 5/5 close. Moving averages remain in decent shape.
Bold means a change from prior day.
The advance/decline line model is now a buy on 4/2 close. Updated through 5/5 close. In 2019, the model was up 16.48% on the S&P 500 and this year is up 5.69% with the S&P 500 lower by -9.89% through yesterday. Now 6 buy signals and 4 cash signals in 2019 and 2020. The latest buy is up 15.21% through Thursday’s close.
Algo/HFT Trading Levels:
The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 5/5 close. EVL Ranges remain above normal and are highlighted in blue BUT are starting to drop.
Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.
Economic & Related:
MBA Mortgage Applications came out at 7:00 a.m. EDT and
The April ADP Employment Report is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall -21.5 million from -27,000. Actual 20.23 million.
Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 4:30 p.m. EDT.
Geopolitical & Related
President Trump will sign a proclamation for National Nurses Day at 12:00 p.m. EDT and then he lunches with the vice president. At 2:00 p.m. EDT the president meets with the Governor of Iowa. Then at 3:30 p.m. EDT the president gets his intelligence briefing. Finally, at 4:00 p.m. his press secretary holds a briefing.
Meetings, Calls & Conferences
Investor/Analyst Days & Conference Calls of Note: COST FAST (Conference Call) EFSC SMMNY STM (Investor/Analyst Meeting).
Sellside Conferences: Wells Fargo Virtual Industrials Conference (5/5-5/6). SunTrust Robinson Humphrey Life Sciences Virtual Meeting Series, (5/5-5/7). D.A. Davidson Financial Institutions Conference (5/6-5/8)
Industry Conferences: Dell Technologies World 2020 (5/4-5/7). Association for Research in Vision and Opthamology (ARVO) Annual Meeting (5/3-5/7)
Upgrades & Downgrades
Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:
Wendy's Company (WEN)
by Superstock Investor
Wendy's (WEN) made news yesterday by note having meat in 20% of their restaurants. Earnings came in today at $0.09 which was the estimate. Current price is $18.81. Is there value here?
Stock data last updated 03/19/2019.
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