Superstock Investor
Morning Briefing

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

Morning Matters:

Weekly Timing Chart Of The S&P 500

We are updating our look at the S&P 500 via our favorite chart of SPY through Tuesday's close.

The Weekly Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel (Yellow Band) sees the current price abpve the channel. As such, bias goes to positive with a breakout above the channel.

[Image 1]

Second, the Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) is at 5.56 from -7.77. Above 0 is good and below 0 is bad. The current action is now positive.

Third, the Erlanger Crossover Spread (EC) Spread is now positive at 65 from 51.46.

Last,the Erlanger Trend Direction (ETD) moves from rally mode to uptrend.

So what is an investor to do here? We would recommend to be defensive and do not nibble yet.

Positioning in our Morning Matters Portfolio off this chart and several other indicators moved to 100% cash on February 28th (see Flash Alert #446.

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Market Matters:

Stocks Higher This Morning With S&P 500 +30

Breaking News: Gilead Sciences (GILD) issues state on NIAID study of remdesivir, meets primary endpoint for COVID-19.

IPOs on deck: None of note.

IPOs Filed:  None of note.

Secondaries Priced:  LUV  IMMU of note.

Notes Priced of note:  CNX LUV of note.

Common Stock filings: SUI of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: None of note.

Convertible Offering Files:  RPD ELY of note.

Senior Notes Filed:  ELY of note.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: 

MTH +0.56 TNET +0.49 TX +0.48 WIRE +0.41 YUMC +0.35 UIS +0.32 MKSI +0.30 DXCM +0.29 HELE +0.23 THG +0.20 ACA +0.20 CSGP +0.17 SIMO +0.12 WW +0.12 MRC +0.11 TENB +0.10 IRBT +0.09 MRCY +0.08 PAYC +0.07 MASI +0.06 BXP +0.05 WERN +0.05 MXIM +0.05 AKAM +0.04 HIW +0.04 CHE +0.03 MDLZ +0.03 APAM +0.02 EHC +0.02 FEYE +0.02 OKE +0.02 CERN +0.01 MPWR +0.01 LSCC +0.01 OI +0.01 of note.

Flat:

AMD +0.00 AGR +0.00 BXMT +0.00 MEDP +0.00 SBUX +0.00

Misses: 

HWC (2.01) GOOG (1.12) ENVA (1.08) CYH (1.01) UMBF (0.91) RNST (0.35) F (0.17) CHRW (0.12) CRSP (0.11) AJRD (0.09) BYD (0.09) SYX (0.05) TRMK (0.04) HOPE (0.02) JNPR (0.02) of note.

Gap Ups:

ENVA +15%, WW +12%, CMRX +12%, INO +10%, MTH +10%, BXMT +8%, HELE +8%, GOOG +8%, BNTX +7%, CHE +7%, DB +6%, DXCM +6%, MASI +6%, MKSI +5%, BCS +5%, SUPN +5%, ACA +5%, SPOT +4%, MRC +4%, DVAX +4%, LSCC +4%, AJRD +4%, ANTM +4%, VLO +4%

Gap Downs: 

APRN -12%, IRBT -9%, BYD -7%, RPD -5%, SITE -5%, AKAM -5%, SUI -4%, FEYE -4%, HAS -4%

Hourly Action This Past Week: Updated 4/27 Close

News After The Close (In Order)

Fitch downgrades Italy to BBB-.

Uber (UBER) sees Chief Technology Officer Thuan Pham to leave mid May. Firm to cut 20% of employees.

Streamed movies eligible for the Oscars, a plus for Netflix (NFLX).

Senate Majority Leader McConnell calls for liability protection from COVID-19 a red line in future COVID-19 relief.

General Electric (GE) wins $710 million Air Force contract.

Cargill CEO Dave MacLennan notes food supply is “under strain”. (Bloomberg)

President Trump uses the Defense Protection Act (DPA) to ensure the continued supply of beef, pork and poultry.

Raises Guidance: MPWR TENB

Lowers Guidance: FEYE  MRCY (Q4) CERN (Q2) CERN EADSY

Withdraws Guidance: DXCM  CSGP  MASI  MDLZ PAYC BYD OKE MEDP  EHC  ENVA  GRMN

Dividend Cut or Suspension:  YUMC ( next two quarters) CLB ROL  EADSY

Dividend Raise: MET

Share Buybacks Stopped: YUMC 

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. 

S&P 500 +60  Dow Jones Industrial Average +475  NASDAQ +206 Russell 2000 +34. Fair values are higher.  Asia mixed  and Europe higher.

Gold lower with silver higher and copper higher. WTI Crude Oil lower and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $139.13 from $138.64 with yields at 0.58% from 0.6 %.

Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Industrials, Financials and Materials of note.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday:  Healthcare and Technology of note.

One Month Winners: Healthcare, Materials and Services of note.

Three Month Winners: None of note.

Six Month Winners:  Healthcare and Technology of note.

Twelve Month Winners: Healthcare, Technology and Consumer Goods of note.

Year to Date: None of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close:   MSFT FB TSLA QCOM CCI VRTX NOW EBAY AFL ES ADM BMRN of note.

Thursday Before The Open:  CMCSA MCD MO CI SO ICE MCO MMC BAX COP KHC EXC ETN of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note

Beat:

 EAT +0.76 HUM +0.71 VLO +0.52 LH +0.42 MKTX +0.42 SPOT +0.28 SAIA +0.25 SLAB +0.20 CLH +0.19 PB +0.19 SHW +0.19 SAH +0.18 UTHR +0.17 AVY +0.16 AMT +0.14 SITE +0.13 AZN +0.13 CME +0.12 CVE +0.12 MAS +0.11 EPD +0.10 GRMN +0.10 CRTO +0.08 OC +0.07 ALKS +0.06 CLS +0.05 GIB +0.04 ANTM +0.04 ADP +0.03 NYCB +0.02 KBR +0.02 BDC +0.02 CMRE +0.01 HAS +0.01  of note.

Missed:

 BKU (0.89) CSTM (0.43) BA (0.31) BANC (0.23) FDP (0.19) CADE (0.15) EEFT (0.15) GE (0.13) GD (0.13) LIVN (0.10) AZZ (0.03) ST (0.03) YUM (0.03) BSX (0.03) NVT (0.03) NOC (0.01)  of note.

Flat: 

SUM +0.00 ROL +0.00 OSK +0.00

Still to Report: DIN FSS MHO MA NSC BTU R SMP

 Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top News Story: 

5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)

5 Things To Know To Start Your Wednesday. (CNBC)

Stocks Making The Biggest Moves. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update:Russia to hit 100,000 cases.

U.S. Coronavirus Map update.

Rep. Justin Amash (Independent – MI) to announce for president in 2020 and will run as a Libertarian. (NY Times)

Federal Reserve preview, reaffirm plans to support economy. (Reuters)

Facebook (FB) is not likely to buy Zoom (ZM). (NY Post)

Best Buy (BBY) to reopen stores with appointment schedule. (CNBC)

Boeing (BA) to cut 10% of the workforce and burns through $4.3 billion. in cash.

Stock Index Tracking

Current through 4/28 close.  Moving averages continue to improve ex the NASDAQ 100 that fell yesterday.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line model is now a buy on 4/2 close. Updated through 4/28 close. In 2019, the model was up 16.48% on the S&P 500 and this year is up 6.08% with the S&P 500 lower by -11.03% through Friday. Now 6 buy signals and 4 cash signals in 2019 and 2020. The latest buy is up 13.72% through Friday’s close.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Updated through 4/27 close. EVL Ranges remain above normal and are highlighted in blue BUT are starting to drop.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Economic & Related:

Weekly API Petroleum Data was out after the close and rose 10 million barrels against an estimate of $10.6 million barrels.

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications fell -3.35%.

Q1 GDP (Advanced) is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to -4.3% from 2.1%.

March Pending Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and came in last month at 2.40%.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Geopolitical & Related

The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) concludes a two day meeting at 2:00 p.m. EDT and no changes are expected, press conference at 2:30 p.m. EDT.

President Trump will participate on a call with Food and Agriculture leaders at 10:00 a.m. EDT. Then at 11:00 a.m. EDT he meets with the Governor of Louisiana. The president will lunch with the Secretary of State. Finally, at 4:00 p.m. EDT he will participate in a roundtable with executives on reopening the country.

The Coronavirus Task Force looks like it may be toast thanks to last Thursday and Friday’s debacles so we will remove this from our note until it reappears on the schedule.

Meetings, Calls & Conferences

Investor/Analyst Days & Conference Calls of Note:  FRBK FRBA (Investor/Analyst Meeting)  BSGM (Conference Call) LTBR (Webinar)

Sellside Conferences: None of note.

Industry Conferences: American Academy of Neurology Annual Meeting (4/25-5/1).

M&A Activity

Rapid7 (RPD) buys DivvyCloud for $145 million.

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Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

General Electric Company (GE)
by Superstock Investor


 

General Electric (GE) saw earnings drop by $-0.13 and revenues fall by 8%. The current price is $6.40 in premarket trading. The recent high was $13.26.

Company Information

Company: General Electric Company
Sector: Capital Goods
Industry: Industrial Conglomerates
Market Cap:  $112,448,600,000

Targets

  Price %Gain  
Current Price $10.19    
Price Target $5.10 -100.0%  
Upper Bound $6.37 -37.5%  
Lower Bound $4.33 -57.5%  

Stock data last updated 03/19/2019.

Data provided by QPI, Inc. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. QPI, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.

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