Superstock Investor
Morning Briefing

Monday, March 16, 2020

Morning Matters:

The Week Ahead For March 16th to 20th

The NASDAQ 100, Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 100 and Russell 2000 were lower for the fourth week in a row.

1.Geopolitical and Fiscal Events. Sunday night saw the FOMC cut interest rates. The BOJ may cut rates on Thursday. 2.Economic Releases. Releases of note this week include the weekly chain store sales, oil/gas numbers, mortgage applications and jobless claims as well as Empire State Manufacturing, Retail Sales, Industrial Production, NAHB Housing Market Index, Housing Starts, Philadelphia Fed Index and Existing Home Sales.

3.Earnings Releases. Notable releases this upcoming week include ZTO COUP FDX BILI GIS TCOM ACN CTAS TIF LK.

Monday, March 16

Sunday night saw the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut interest rate to 0.00.% to 0.25%. The FOMC also

March Empire State Manufacturing is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 3.5% from 4.7%.

Tuesday, March 17

The Democratic Party will delay primaries for this day due to coronavirus.

February Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.2% from 0.1%.

February Industrial Production is due out at 9:15 a.m. EDT and is expected rise to 0.6% from -0.3%.

March NAHB Housing Market Index is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to stay at 74.

Wednesday, March 18

February Housing Starts is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 147,500 from 156,700. Thursday, March 19

March Philadelphia Federal Reserve Index is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to fall to 10 from 36.7.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) announces its latest interest rate decision.

Friday, March 20

February Existing Home Sales is due out 10:00 a.m. EDT and the estimate is for an increase to 5.50 million from 5.46 million.

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Market Matters:

S&P 500 Futures Lower, Heading Into The Open

Breaking News:

IPOs on deck: None of note.

IPOs Filed:  None of note.

Secondaries Priced: None of note.

Notes Priced of note: None of note.

Common Stock filings:None of note.

Mixed Shelf Offerings: NVEE TBIO QCRH VRCA INO HARP KIDS  of note.

Convertible Offering Files: None of note.

Senior Notes Filed: None of note.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: 

None of note.

Missed: 

 None of note.

Hourly Action This Week: Updated 3/13 Close

News After The Close (In Order of Time)

Boeing (BA) notes FAA looking at structural issues with 737 jets after incident on a Southwest Airlines (LUV) 737.

Bill Gates steps down from Microsoft (MSFT) and Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB) boards.

Churchill Downs (CHDN) will be spectator free through 3/29.

President Trump was tested for the coronavirus on Friday night.

Barron's reviews airlines best names Southwest (LUV), Delta (DAL) and United Airlines (UAL). Favorite Energy names include International Seasways (INSW), Scorpio Tankers (STNG), Euronav (EURN), Phillips 66 (PSX), Valero (VLO) and Concho Resources (CXO). Freeport McMoRan (FCX) insiders buy stock.

President Trump restricts travel to U.K. and Ireland.

Bridgewater's Macro fund Pure Alpha II down -21%  through Thursday.

France shuts all restaurants, cafes, cinemas and clubs as of Sunday morning due to coronavirus.

Lowers Guidance: 

Withdraws Guidance: BOOM VVI

Stock Buybacks: MNST HCI SBSI FSS

Stock Buybacks Stopped:  All major banks including USB.

Dividend Increases: 

Gap Higher: BNTX +33%, ATUS +6%.

Gap Lower: MNK -31%, WYNN -18%, NBEV -17%%, MGM -16%, INO -15%, UAL -15%, CCL -15%,  JBLU -13%, DAL -13%, SLV -13%, RCL -12, NCLH -11%, AAPL -11%, BA -11%, WBA -8%, AIMT -6%, NIU -6%, NVEE -6%, XLP -6%, TSG -4%.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. 

S&P 500 -132  Dow Jones Industrial Average -1242  NASDAQ -438 Russell 2000 -64. Fair values are higher.  Asia lower and Europe lower.

Gold, silver and copper lower. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, lower vs Pound and lower vs Yen. US 10 year Treasury price is at $137,78 from $137.14 and yields at 0.577% from 0.636%.  Prices as of 8:30 a.m. EDT.

Positive Sectors On Friday: All lead by Financial, Technology and Materials/Energy.

Negative Sectors On Friday: None of note.

One Month Winners: None of note.

Three Month Winners: None of note.

Six Month Winners:  None of note.

Twelve Month Winners: None of note.

Year to Date: None of note.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close: ZTO COUP HQY TME YY TERP  HUYA RPAY BE CPRX PAYS APYX of note.

Tuesday Before The Open: HDS FLR DBI MK LE of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note

Beat: 

None of note.

Misses:

NBEV (0.75) KOD (0.09) of note.

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top News Story:  Markets drop despite Federal Reserve and Central Bank action. (

5 Things To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)

5 Things To Know Before The Stock Market Opens. (CNBC)

Stocks Moving This Morning. (CNBC)

Coronavirus update: WHO tells world to doubel down. (CNBC)

Federal Reserve cut interest rates to 0-0.25% late Sunday afternoon.

IMF will use $1 trillion loan capacity to fight COVID-19.

Associated Press reports first participant in a clinical trial on experimental coronavirus vaccine today.

Sanofi (SNY) and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) start clinical trials using Kevzara in patients with severe COVID-19.

Carnival Cruise (CCL) suspends service as does Royal Caribbean (RCL).

Stores closed include Under Armour (UA), Apple (AAPL), Nike (NKE), V.F. Corp (VFC), Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) and Columbia Sportswear (COLM).

Stores with limited hours lululeom athletica (LULU)

Casinos closed include Wynn Resorts (WYNN), MGM Resorts (MGM)

FDA issues Emergency Use Authorization to Thermo Fisher (TMO) to run diagnostic test used to detect COVID-19.

American Airlines (AAL) cuts flights 75% from March 16 through May 6th while United Airlines (UAL) cuts by 50% in April and May.

Google (GOOGL) partners with U.S. government to develop a COVID-19 website.

Teladoc (TDOC) sees medical visits up 50% in the past week, with respiratory condition diagnoses up 24% over last month.

AMC limits seating to 50 people and 50% capacity. (AMC)

Stock Index Tracking

Current through 3/13 close.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line model is now back in cash. Updated through 3/13 close. In 2019, the model was up 16.48% on the S&P 500 and this year is down -7.64% with the S&P 500 lower by -23.22% before today. 5 buy signals and 4 cash signals in 2019. We moved to cash at 3116.31 on the S&P 500.

Algo/HFT Trading Levels:

The Erlanger Value Lines track the intraday range of resistance, pivot and support used by Algo/HFT Traders. Each day we show where we closed within the range. Update through 3/13 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Economic & Related:

March Empire State Manufacturing is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 3.5% from 4.7%.

Geopolitical:      

President Trump will participate in a conference call with G-7 leaders at 10:00 a.m. EDT.  Then will participate in a video conference call with U.S. Governors. At 12:30, the president has lunch with the Vice President. At 3:30 p.m. EDT, the president receives his intelligence briefing.

Coronavirus Task Force holds a briefing at 11:30 a.m. EDT.

Meetings, Calls & Conferences

Investor/Analyst Days & Conference Calls of Note: RAD (Investor Day). SESN (Conference Call).

Sellside Conferences: None of note.

Industry Conferences: None of note.

M&A Activity

Upgrades & Downgrades are too numerous to show today. I have never seen more of each!

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Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

Radian Group Inc. (RDN)
by Superstock Investor


 

This stock has been selected as today's example of the Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard.

Company Information

Company: Radian Group Inc.
Sector: Banks
Industry: Thrifts_Mortgage
Market Cap:  $4,363,224,600

Targets

  Price %Gain  
Current Price $20.60    
Price Target $19.57 -5.3%  
Upper Bound $24.46 18.8%  
Lower Bound $16.63 -19.3%  

Stock data last updated 03/19/2019.

Data provided by QPI, Inc. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. QPI, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.

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