Superstock Investor
Morning Briefing

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

Morning Matters:

Weekly Timing Chart Of The S&P 500

We are updating our look at the S&P 500 via our favorite chart of SPY.

The Weekly Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel (Yellow Band) is back above the channel. Bias is now positive.

Second, the Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) is at 14.62 from 16.01. Above 0 is good and below 0 is bad. The current action is positive but has lost some ground.

Third, the Erlanger Crossover Spread (EC) Spread is at 59.23 from 53.80 which is continued strength.

Last, the Erlanger Trend Direction (ETD) remains in uptrend.

So what is an investor to do here? We would recommend to stay with strong stocks and begin to add selectively to new names.

Positioning in our Morning Matters Portfolio off this chart and several others were look at have cash is at 25% from 33%.

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Market Matters:

Futures Reverse After Powell's Comments Released

Corporate Actions

IPOs on deck for Today: Tuscan Holdings Unit (THCAU) 

Secondaries on deck for Today: HQY

Notes Priced: None of note.

Common Stock filings: 

Mixed Shelf Offerings filed: 

Convertible Offering Files: 

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat:  HELE +0.37, WDFC +0.08, KSHB +0.03 

Flat: None of note.

Missed: LEVI (0.21) 

News After The Close:

U.S. Equity Options June metrics on NASDAQ see volume 132 million versus 154 million in May and 139 million a year ago.

Pay Pal (PYPL) reports gains of $218 million from strategic investments.

Franklin Resources (BEN) sees assets grow to $715.2 billion from $695 billion.

General Dynamics (GD) wins $300 million Army contract.

T-Mobile (TMUS) to join the S&P 500 next Monday, July 15th.

What’s Happening This Morning: Going forward the futures value reflects the change with fair value. We will still indicate the fair value direction. Futures flipped from negative to positive on the release of Powell’s opening comments.

U.S. futures: S&P +4, Dow Jones +32, NDX +31   and Russell 2000 +2 with fair values higher.  Asia and Europe mixed, click through for details by country.

Gold and silver lower with copper higher. WTI Crude Oil and Brent Oil Futures higher . Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro and Pound but lower versus the Yen. US 10 year Treasury price at $126.95 from $127.22 from with yields at 2.096%  from 2.067%. Prices as of 8:25 a.m. EDT.

Positive Sectors On Tuesday: Technology, Services, Financials and Healthcare.

Negative Sectors On Tuesday: Conglomerates and Industrials.

One Month Winners: Technology, Services and Consumer Goods.

Three Month Winners: Consumer Goods, Financials, Services, and Utilities.

Six Month Winners: Services, Conglomerates, Technology and Conglomerates.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Services, Healthcare and Technology.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials, Technology and Consumer Goods.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest)

Today After The Close:  PSMT BBBY AIR YRD

Thursday Before The Open: DAL FAST    

Earnings This Morning Of Note 

Beat: None of note.

Flat: None of note.

Missed: MSM (0.05), ANGO ().01)

Rags & Mags: Highlighted Stories may be clicked through to the original story.

Top News Story:  Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell heads to The Hill for two days of testimony before the House and Senate.

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day  (Bloomberg)

President Trump wants to weaken the U.S. Dollar and asks advisers how to accomplish this action.(Bloomberg)

Britain seizes Iranian tanker and Iran’s military may respond. (WSJ)

President Trump told Chinese President Xi he would not criticize China over Hong Kong protests. (FT)

China and the U.S. are having constructive phone conversations per White House Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow. (Reuters)

Data Points

The NASDAQ 100 moved back above its 5 day moving averages.

Bold means a change from prior day.

The advance/decline line has improved dramatically and moved to a buy on 6/13. Updated through 7/8/19 close. The buy remains intact. Year to date model up 12.00% on the S&P 500. 3 buy signals and 3 cash signals in 2019.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) is no longer in cash and moved to invested on 6/13/19.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

YTD  71% (+2% week over week) of stocks are higher and 29% are lower. Updated 7/5/19 close with next update on 7/12/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Economic & Related:

API Petroleum Institute Weekly Data was out at 4:30 p.m. EDT and came in with a Crude Oil draw of 8.129 million barrels and Gasoline draw of 0.257 million barrels.

Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications fell -2.4% week over week.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

The latest NYSE and NASDAQ Short Interest is due out after the close.

$24 Billion of 10 Year Treasuries are auctioned at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

Geopolitical:

President Trump to sign Executive Order at 11:00 a.m. EDT Advancing American Kidney Health.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell testifies before the House and Senate over the next two days in the semiannual Humphrey Hawkins testimony. Today sees him at the House beginning at 10:00 a.m. EDT.

The Bank of Canada announces its latest interest rate decision.

Federal Reserve St. Louis President James Bullard speaks at 1:50 p.m. EDT.

Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) releases its latest minutes at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:  

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call:  XSPA PCYO WYNN (Investor Day)

Sellside Conferences:  None of note.

Industry Conferences:  International Society on Thrombosis  and Haemostatis Congress 2019 (through 7/10). BIO World Congress on Industrial Biotech & Ag 2019 (through 7/11). Semicon West (through 7/11).

M&A Activity

Upgrades & Downgrades:

Early Morning Gap Up/Down:

Gap Higher: HLIT +12%, HELE +8%, WDFC +4%, EQT +4%.

Gap Lower:  OASM -9%, LEVI -6%, OLN -4%.

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Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

U.S. Bancorp (USB)
by Superstock Investor


 

U.S. Bancorp (USB) made one of our favorite screens of seasonally strong names with heavy short selling. Financial stocks have lagged and if rates start to move higher then this name should do well. Current price is $53.34. Is there value?

Company Information

Company: U.S. Bancorp
Sector: Banks
Industry: Regional Banks
Market Cap:  $88,740,400,000

Targets

  Price %Gain  
Current Price $51.93    
Price Target $46.74 -11.1%  
Upper Bound $58.42 12.5%  
Lower Bound $39.73 -23.5%  

Stock data last updated 03/19/2019.

Data provided by QPI, Inc. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. QPI, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.

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