Superstock Investor
Morning Briefing

Thursday, February 14, 2019

Morning Matters:

Weekly Charts Updated

Each week we highlight charts below of the SP500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, UUP, EEM, TLT, HYG,LQD and recently GLD. The charts use the 50 day moving average slope indicator. When it is green we like the instrument we are tracking and when it is red we avoid the name/sector/asset class.

U.S. Equity indexes are now all positive as the rally continues. Emerging Markets are positive. The U.S. Dollar is negative. Bond ETFs are all positive now. GLD is the ETF that tracks the price of gold is positive now./p>

Remember what matters is the slope of the 50 day moving average not the 50 day moving average itself. As mentioned above, bond holders should be defensive for the time being. That said, we note the dollar is in rally mode.

All charts are created from www.erlangerchartroom.com and if interested in using this indicator in Chart Room please feel free to send us an email by using the Contact Us section from the home page.

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Charts courtesy of www.erlangerchartroom.com

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Market Matters:

Futures Higher

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck This Week:  Five on deck for this week including Avedro, Cibus Global, Stealth BioTherapeutics, TCR2 Therapeutics and Virgin Trains USA LLC.

IPOs on deck for Today: Avedro (AVDR), Cibus Global (CBUS), TCR2 Therapeutics (TCRR).

Secondaries on deck: Secondaries to be priced this morning XERS HUBS TCRR

IPO Filings Announced After The Close  No common stock offerings filed today.  

Announcements For Secondary Filings & Financings HUBS files mixed shelf offering and a common stock offering.  INO EGHT files convertible notes. VRTX CMI STAG files a mixed shelf offering.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat:  BKD +0.94, OII +0.33, H +0.32, KAI +0.31, NGVT +0.30, IVC +0.26, YELP +0.26, BAND +0.25, QDEL +0.17, ANDE +0.16, SPWR +0.13, EQIX +0.10, QTWO +0.10, AR +0.09, SNBR +0.08, DIOD +0.07, VNDA +0.06, NTAP +0.05, EQC +0.05, CTL +0.04, CXP +0.03, REG +0.03, SLF +0.03, BCOV +0.03, WCN +0.02, SKT +0.02, TCO +0.02, PGRE +0.02, PRSP +0.02, PS +0.01, FR +0.01, STAG +0.01, CSCO +0.01, FRT +0.01, KGC +0.01, MRO +0.01.

Flat: NLY, CTRE, CHEF, AKR, FCPT, HR, HCP, ARI, DVA, NUS.

Missed: AIG (1.08), CF (0.24), FOSL (0.20), PXD (0.16), RYAM (0.16), IFF (0.08), PPC (0.06), AMGP (0.06), LPI (0.06), FNF (0.05), WMB (0.05), TCX (0.05), TRUP (0.04), MGM (0.03), TSE (0.02), SWIR (0.01), MFC (0.01), ASGN (0.01), SVMK (0.01)

Positive Guidance:  NGVT  EQIX DIOD SVMK.

Mixed Guidance:  KAI BAND SNBR NTAP BCOV PS CSCO ASGN.

Negative Guidance: SPWR NPO VNDA REG CXP SKT PGRE IFF TSE SWIR CTRE.

Dividend Increases: EQIX FNF NUS H MGM PXD SKT NPO SF.

Dividend Cut: CTL

Stock Repurchase Announcements: HNI MFC.

News After The Close:

Ellington Financial (EFC) moves being taxed as a REIT in 2019.

House passes bill to remove U.S. forces from Yemen that were not authorized by Congress.

Hedge Fund Manager Seth Klarman of Baupost establishes new positions in AKBA EBAY CBS.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures 

U.S. futures: S&P +10.25, Dow Jones +114,  NDX +32 and Russell 2000 +3.20  with fair values HIGHER CUTTING INTO GAINS.  Asia mixed  and Europe modestly higher (for country change click through)

Gold and silver lower slightly with copper up slightly. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 121.88 with yields lower since Tuesday morning with the yield at 2.688%. Prices as of 8:15 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Wednesday: All lead by Conglomerates, Materials, Services and Industrials.

Weakest Sectors Wednesday: Utilities.

One Month Winners:  Industrial Goods, Technology, Utilities, Consumer Goods and Financial.

Three Month Winners: Utilities,Technology, Services and Industrials.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities, Healthcare and Conglomerates.

Year to Date: All higher led by Industrial Goods, Conglomerates, Materials, Services, Technology and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest):

Today After The Close: NVDA BIDU AMAT CBS ANET SSNC INVH AEM CGNX WES XPO CC LOGM TREX ELLI AUY.

Friday Before The Open:  ENB DE MCO FTS YNDXNWL WBC CHH POR SXT DAN GVA AXL ABR TYPE CPSI ZEUS.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates: EQT +0.89, ARCH +0.86, SIX +0.66, BAM +0.59, ALKS +0.39, HII +0.30, CYBR +0.30, PBF +0.26, GLOG +0.22, STFC +0.17, ZBRA +0.17, STNG +0.16, GOOS +0.15, BWA +0.14, FAF +0.13, GEO +0.13, AZN +0.10, TRTN +0.09, LECO +0.09, ARES +0.08, AGIO +0.08, TRP +0.07, THS +0.07, PDS +0.07, GTLS +0.07, WM +0.07, NICE +0.06, MANU +0.06, ALE +0.05, DNOW +0.05, IRM +0.04, EPAM +0.04, CME +0.04, BLMN +0.04, YETI +0.04, PPL +0.03, TRU +0.03, GNRC +0.03, IQV +0.03, SON +0.03, ZTS +0.02, AER +0.02, EEX +0.02, SMI +0.02, BCOR +0.02, TU +0.02, PBFX +0.01, WST +0.01

 Flat:  AVP, KO, CCEP

Missed Estimates: EQM (2.34), CBB (0.42), WLH (0.15), INCY (0.09), POOL (0.07), TPX (0.07), DUK (0.05), WSO (0.04), AAN (0.01), DGX (0.01)

Rags & Mags:

Top Story: President Trump considers a 60 day extension on China trade deadline. (Bloomberg)

5 Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day (Bloomberg) –   Shutdown talks stall, China talks restart, U.K. economy weakens, markets slump and oil bears.

The Senate will vote on funding government through September and then the House will vote on the Government Funding Bill today. (The Hill)

J.P Morgan (JPM) will launch a crytpocurrency for trading. (CNBC)

Electronic Arts (EA) saw Apex Legends break viewership records on Twitch. (Dexerto Report)

Airbus to end production of the A380. (CNBC)

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 1859 stocks rise and 999 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1797 rise and 1265 fall.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day simple moving average and now above its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also above its 50 day simple moving average  and also above its 200 day simple moving average.  All three indexes are now above their 10 and 20 day moving averages. All three indexes have retaken their 5 day moving average.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell which right now seems a long ways off. Yesterday was not as strong on the a/d line as it should have been given the index moves.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  86% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 2/8/19 close with next update on 2/15/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Economic & Related:

December Retail Sales are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to remain at 0.2%.

January PPI is also due out at 8:30 a.m. EST And is expected to rise to 0.1% from -0.2%.

Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EST and are expected to fall to 225,000 from 234,000.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EST.

Politico:

U.S. and China Mid Level TradeTalks in China continue with President Xi now to meet with the U.S. Delegation on Friday.

The Senate will vote on funding government through September and then the House will vote on the Government Funding Bill today. (The Hill)

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: BC (business review), KO (conference call),EMR (investor conference), HUM (investor day)

Sellside Conferences Goldman Sachs Technology & Internet Conference.Bank of America Merrill Lynch Insurance Conference.

Industry Conferences:Daytona Speedweeks. Chicago Autoshow. 

M&A News & Rumors:

Brightcove (BCOV) to acquire the online video platform of Ooyala, no terms.

Significant Upgrades (to buy) & Downgrades (to sell or underweight)

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners: SOLO +34%, IVC +21%, SNBR +14%, DBVT +12%, YETI +7%, YETI +7%, GNC +7%, NGD +7%, AZN +6%, VNDA +5%, 

Losers: SWIR -21%, FOSL -19%, INO -15%, BKD -14%, RYAM -13%, CTL -12%, IIIV -9%, NTAP -8%, FNF -7%,MMLP -7%, BCOV -6%, LPI -5%, PXD -5%.


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Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

Stanley Black & Decker, Inc. (SWK)
by Superstock Investor


 

Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) missed on earnings, fell and is now almost back to where it was before the drop. Current price is $134.28 and let's see if there is some value and this level.It is almost exactly at its price target and does have some upside to its upper bound.

Company Information

Company: Stanley Black & Decker, Inc.
Sector: Consumer Durables_Apparel
Industry: Household Appliances
Market Cap:  $21,685,184,300

Targets

  Price %Gain  
Current Price $128.07    
Price Target $134.47 5.0%  
Upper Bound $168.09 31.3%  
Lower Bound $114.30 -10.8%  

Stock data last updated 01/08/2019.

Data provided by QPI, Inc. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. QPI, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.

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