Superstock Investor
Morning Briefing

Thursday, January 31, 2019

Morning Matters:

Weekly Charts Updated

Each week we highlight charts below of the SP500, Russell 2000, NASDAQ Composite, UUP, EEM, TLT, HYG,LQD and recently GLD. The charts use the 50 day moving average slope indicator. When it is green we like the instrument we are tracking and when it is red we avoid the name/sector/asset class.

U.S. Equity indexes are all negative with the S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite and Russell 2000 but off the lows. Emerging Markets have turned positive. The U.S. Dollar has turned to the negative. Bond ETFs are all positive now. GLD is the ETF that tracks the price of gold is positive now./p>

Remember what matters is the slope of the 50 day moving average not the 50 day moving average itself. As mentioned above, bond holders should be defensive for the time being. That said, we note the dollar is in rally mode.

All charts are created from www.erlangerchartroom.com and if interested in using this indicator in Chart Room please feel free to send us an email by using the Contact Us section from the home page.

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Charts courtesy of www.erlangerchartroom.com

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Market Matters:

Futures Up Modestly This Morning

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: The first IPO of the year due last week, New Forest Energy (NFE) but was not priced until after the close last night at a price of $14. Expect a flood of filings now that the government has reopened.

Secondaries on deck: KNSA BILI PULM to be priced this morning.

IPO Filings After The Close:  no common stock offerings today.  

Secondary Filings & Financings  WTER mixed shelf offering.  TDG senior notes priced.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings After The Close:

Beat: CACC +0.44, CACI +0.43, MTH +0.39, AMP +0.21, FB +0.20, NOW +0.14, CRUS +0.13, MLNX +0.12, QCOM +0.11, LSTR +0.10, EZPW +0.09, DLB +0.09, ALGT +0.09, TTEK +0.08, ARCB +0.08, RXN +0.07, CREE +0.06, V +0.05, FLEX +0.04, THG +0.04, FICO +0.03, APRN +0.02, EGOV +0.02, PYPL +0.02, HOLX +0.01, LLNW +0.01, ESS +0.01.

Flat: DRE, BDN, EFII, MDLZ, MAA.

Missed: AXS (0.47), WYNN (0.29), MUSA (0.26), CMPR (0.24), SXI (0.16), GHL (0.10), TSLA (0.09), AGNC (0.06), SEIC (0.01), MSFT (0.01), X (0.01).

Positive Guidance Post Earnings: ALGT MLNX EGOV 

Mixed Guidance Post Earnings:  CACI CREE DLB FLEX HOLX PYPL TTEK.

Negative Guidance Post Earnings: CRUS LSTR 

Dividend Increase: FBC CVX CWT AJG SCHW SJW

Stock Repurchase Announcement: FBC FRED LSTR SCHW EPD 

News After The Close

Avon (AVP) to reduce workforce by 10%.

Lockheed Martin (LMT) awarded $560 million Navy contract.

Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller notes that the Russians used discovery material to discredit the investigation. (NBC News)

Charles Schwab (SCHW) announces a $4 billion repurchase and increase in the dividend of 31%.

What’s Happening This Morning: Futures 

U.S. futures: S&P +2.50, Dow Jones -44,  NDX +34.75 and Russell 2000 +1.40  with fair values LOWER ADDING TO GAIN.  Asia and Europe higher.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude lower and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, lower vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 122.20 with yields higher since Wednesday morning with the yield at 2.67%. Prices as of 8:25 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Wednesday: All lead by Consumer Goods, Technology, Industrials and Materials.

Weakest Sectors Wednesday: None of note.

One Month Winners:  All lead by Conglomerates, Financials, Services, Industrial and Materials.

Three Month Winners: Financials, Technology, Industrials, Utilities and Services.

Six Month Winners: Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Utilities and Conglomerates.

Year to Date: All higher led by Conglomerates, Services, Industrials and Financials.

Upcoming Earnings Of Note (sorted by market cap, highest to lowest):

Today After The Close:   AMZN AFL EW MCK AJG YUMC SYMC EMN PKI OTEX CPT POST LPLA CY DECK ESL SIGI SKYW EPAY of note.

Friday Before The Open:  XOM CVX MRK HON CI SPG SNE HMC D ITW AON LYB JCI ROP KKR IMO ZBH of note.

Earnings This Morning Of Note:

Beat Estimates:  VLO +1.01,  NOC +0.48,  MAN +0.26,  LANC +0.25,  CNX +0.23,  RACE +0.19,  APTV +0.13,  CNXM +0.13,  COP +0.11,  ABC +0.09,  EPD +0.09,  PH +0.09,  CELG +0.08,  BC +0.08,  RDS.A +0.07,  KEX +0.07,  IP +0.06,  BAX +0.05,  MMC +0.05,  WRK +0.05,  RTN +0.04,  MUR +0.04,  IIVI +0.04,  ABMD +0.03,  ETN +0.03,  UPS +0.03,  CMCO +0.02,  MIXT +0.02,  OMN +0.01,  XEL +0.01,  MNRO +0.01,  DWDP +0.01,  FCFS +0.01,  WCC +0.01,  MSCI +0.01  

Flat: NOK, KIM, BMS, XYL, MO.

Missed Estimates: WRLD (0.58), RFP (0.54), APO (0.49), CHTR (0.30), CRR (0.25), MDC (0.19), GE (0.05), NS (0.02), BHGE (0.01), NVT (0.01), BLL (0.01), HSY (0.01), BX (0.01), S (0.01), SHW (0.01).

Still to Report: FLWS, CRS, CMS, CFR, KEM, MMP, MA, OSB, SNDR, SILC, TSCO, VLY, YRCW.

Raised Guidance:  FLWS CMCO KIM MIXT SILC.

Lowered Guidance: BC DWDP NOK .

Mixed Guidance:  APTV BAX RACE NOC SHW XYL.

Rags & Mags:

Top Story:  President Trump to meet today with Chinese officials.

Five Things You Need To Know To Start Your Day. (Bloomberg) – Fed shows patience, Deutsche Bank plans, trade talks, EU pushed to the brink and what’s up for today.

China PMI rose slightly from  49.4 to 49.5. (Bloomberg)

Tesla (TSLA) CFO Deepak Ahuja to retire for a second time. (CNBC)

Sri Lanka halts imports of baby powder from Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). (Reuters)

CBS could own both Discovery (DISCA) and Viacom (VIAB). (CNBC)

Deutsche Bank (DB) is facing a merger by mid 2019 if all else fails. (Bloomberg)

Central Banks on biggest buying spree in half a century. (Bloomberg)

Hundreds of Chinese companies just warned and more on tap to warn. (Bloomberg)

Data Points:

Yesterday saw 2367 stocks rise and 593 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2146 rise and 931 fall.

The SP 500 is still above its 50 day simple moving average but remains below its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is also above its 50 day simple moving average but below its 200 day simple moving average. The Dow is also above its 50 day simple moving average  but remains below its 200 day simple moving average.  All three indexes are now above their 5,10 and 20 day moving averages.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to buy on January 7th at 2549.69. For a move to a buy from cash, the 10DMA needed to have two days in row above +200 which happened January 7th. The next move will be to cash or sell. Watch closely.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc

YTD  88% of stocks are higher and 12% are lower. Updated 1/25/19 close with next update on 2/1/19 close.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.

Economic & Related:

Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

January Chicago PMI is due out at 9:45 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 58 from 65.4.

November New Home Sales are due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and are expected to rise to 555,000 from 544,000.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Politico:

President Trump to meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He at 3:30 p.m. EDT.

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings/Notable Conference Call: none of note.

Sellside Conferences: Jefferies Annual Winter Restaurant, Food Services, Gaming, Lodging & Leisure Summit.

Industry Conferences:Metro Connect.

M&A News & Rumors:

CACI International (CACI) to buy LGS Innovations for $975 million.

DCP Midstream (DCP) sells wholesale propane business to NGL Energy Partners (NGL) no terms.

Cisco (CSCO) to buy Singularity Networks, no terms.

Significant Upgrades (to buy) & Downgrades (to sell or underweight)

Pre-Market Movers:

Winners:  FLEX +16%, FB +12%, DLB +9%, NOW +8%, MLNX +7%, AVP +5%, .

Losers:  EFII -10%, MUSA -10%, X -6., MEOH -6%, TSLA -5%.

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Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

Helmerich & Payne, Inc. (HP)
by Superstock Investor


 

Helmerich & Payne (HP) got an upgrade from neutral to buy at Merrill Lynch.The stock is down from a recent peak $75. The current price is $56.83. Is there value? Unfortunately, no.

Company Information

Company: Helmerich & Payne, Inc.
Sector: Energy
Industry: Oil & Gas Drilling
Market Cap:  $7,139,261,600

Targets

  Price %Gain  
Current Price $51.00    
Price Target $38.25 -25.0%  
Upper Bound $47.81 -6.3%  
Lower Bound $32.51 -36.3%  

Stock data last updated 01/08/2019.

Data provided by QPI, Inc. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. QPI, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.

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Articles That Matter:

Federal Reserve On Hold

Yesterday's Federal Reserve decision to not raise interest rates was an important one in that the Fed is now on hold and cautious. Stock markets around the world like this announcement.

Fed Thinking

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