Thursday, January 03, 2019
Morning Matters Portfolio Update Through Year End
For 2018, the S&P 500 lost -6.26%. For 2018 the Morning Matters Portfolio lost -4.64%.
The Russell 2000 for 2018 lost -17.49%. The Nasdaq Composite is above 6600 from 7000 since our last update, lower for the week. The Dow sees support at 23000 since our last update.
The portfolio is now 50% invested long, 0% short and 50% in cash, net long 50%. For 2017, the value of the portfolio was 970.84%. For 2018, the portfolio value is 927.81%.
For a listing of all trade both open and closed simply look under Portfolio on the left hand side of the website. We added a new buy in Micron a couple weeks ago. Current names in the portfolio include:
Ford (F) Viacom (VIAB) Blackberry (BB) China via FXI AT&T (T) Micron (MU)
We recently closed out Exxon (XOM) as the price of oil appears to have started a bear market that could see its price drop to $40. If the occurs, Exxon will be trading in the $60s. So we exited with a small loss of less than a $1. There were also four dividend payments in the time we owned the stock so it was a winner even though we will track as a small loser.
Dividends are not included in our results unless there is a special one time payment.Markets are setting up for an epic buying opportunity last seen in 2015 or 2011.
Futures Lower This Morning
In After Hours Trading
IPOs on deck: IPOs will pick back up in the next couple weeks now that we are in 2019, Secondaries are back in business.
IPO Filings After The Close: none of note
Secondary Filings no common stock or mixed shelf offering announced.
Courtesy of IPO Financial
Earnings From After the Close: none of note.
News After The Close:
Apple (AAPL) guides revenues lower by $7 billion on slowing iPhone sales in China and emerging markets. Shares at $148. Tim Cook interviewed by CNBC.
Ironwood (IRWD) and Allergan (AGN) settle with Mylan (MYL) over LINZESS patents.
Nordstrom (JWN) announces the unexpected death of Blake Nordstrom at 58 who was co-President.
UDR adds President title to Jerry Davis who has been COO.
Fiesta Restaurant (FRGI) CFO Lynn Schweinfurth resigns as of 1/25 as she moves to Red Robin Gourmet (RRGB) in role of EVP and CFO as of 1/28.
Tribune Media (TRCO) cuts television stations from 24 markets to Spectrum (CHTR) subscribers which total 6 million viewers and those viewers may not see the NFL playoffs this weekend if on Spectrum.
Dividend Increases: OZK
New Stakes: Progenics Pharm (PGNX) sees Point72 take 5.7% stake, passive.
What’s Happening This Morning:
U.S. futures: S&P – 27, Dow Jones -270 NDX -113 and Russell 2000 -12.00 with fair values HIGHER ADDING TO LOSSES. Asia lower with the Nikkei closed and Europe lower this morning.
Gold and silver higher with copper lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is lower vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 122.36 with yields lower since Wednesday morning. Prices as of 8:35 a.m. EDT.
Top Sectors Wednesday: Conglomerates, Materials, Services and Financials led.
Weakest Sectors Wednesday: Healthcare and Utilities.
One Month Winners: None.
Three Month Winners: None.
Six Month Winners: None.
Twelve Month Winners: Utilities.
Pending Earnings Of Note:
Thursday After the Close: LNDC RECN
Friday Before The Open: ANGO CALM GBX LW RPM.
Earnings This Morning Of Note: UNFI $0.20 with mixed guidance. SMPL $-0.01 but raises guidance.
Rags & Mags:
Apple (AAPL) blows revenue forecast after the remove disclosing iPhone sales a month earlier. (CNBC)
Japanese Yen ripped against all currencies overnight,effectively a flash crash as Aussie/Yen saw a 4 ½ standard deviation move. (Bloomberg)
President Trump and new Congressional leaders dig in their heels, next meeting on Friday. (NYT)
China landed a vehicle on the dark side of the moon. Opening up knowledge on the creation of the universe. (CNBC)
Nancy Pelossi interviewed today and calls for a new world with the new Congress and President Trump. (USA Today)
Sexual harassment charges hit Sanders’ 2016 Campaign, cutting Senator Bernie Sanders’ chance in 2020. (NYT)
Federal Reserve Dallas President Robert Kaplan interview this morning on Bloomberg Radio helps futures recover. (Bloomberg)
Yesterday saw 2070 stocks rise and 906 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2132 rise and 960 fall.
The SP 500 remains below its 50 day simple moving average and its 200 day simple moving average. The Russell 2000 is still below its 50 day simple moving exponential average and 200 day simple moving average. In a miracle, both indexes are now above their 5 and 10 day moving averages.
The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to cash on 11/21 at 2642.21. For a move to cash, the 10DMA needs to have two days in row below -200. We are in watch mode to get back to a buy.
YTD 26% (+2%) of stocks are higher and 74% (-2%) are lower. Updated 12/28/18 close with next update on 1/4/19 close
Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc and Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.
Economic & Related:
December ADP Payroll is due out at 8:15 a.m. EDT and was expected to come in at 170,000 from 179,000. The actual number was 271,00.
Weekly Jobless Claims rose to 231,000.
November Construction Spending is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to improve to 0.3% from -0.1%.
December ISM Manufacturing Index is also due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to fall to 57/98 from 59.3.
Monthly car and truck sales are due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
The government shutdown continues as no agreements reached.
The 116th U.S. Congress will be sworn in.
Conferences & Analyst Meetings:
Analyst Meetings: WINT F
Sellside Conferences: Goldman Sachs Annual Healthcare CEOs Unscripted.
Industry Conferences: None of note.
M&A News & Rumors
Bristol Myers (BMY) to buy Celgene (CELG) for $102.43 with $50 in cash and stock.
Sempra Energy (SRE) to sell non-utility U.S. natural gas storage facilities to ArcLight Capital Partners for $332 million.
Cubic (CUB) buys GRIDSMART Technologies for $87 million.
Blackbaud (BLKB) buys YourCause for $157 million.
Welltower (WELL) buys medical office and outpatient facilities from CNL Healthcare Properties for $1.25 billion. Deal to close by July,
Upgrades & Downgrades
Gap Up and Downs Pre Market: CELG +33% SESN +15% DBVT +13% STM -9% AAPL -9% BMY -8% LITE -7% SWKS -6% QRVO -6% OLED -5% AVGO -4% NVDA -4% (Apple spillover on most losers)
Celgene Corporation (CELG)
by Superstock Investor
Do All Companies Have A China Problem or Does Apple Have A China Problem
This morning the $64,000 question is do all stocks have a China problem or does Apple have a China problem. Clearly, Nike (NKE) killed it last month with their sales numbers in China which could make one question whether all stocks have a China problem.
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