Superstock Investor
Morning Briefing

Thursday, November 29, 2018

Morning Matters:

The Weekly Chart Of The S&P 500

This morning we are updating our look at the S&P 500 via our favorite chart of SPY. Since the close of 11/20 the S&P 500 is higher by 1.97%.

[Image 1]

The first thing we notice is that the weekly Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel sees the price just moved into the channel which means that the bias now is neutral.

Second, the Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) is at -2.54 from -17.23 last week. Above 0 is good and below 0 is bad. So currently, it is below zero trying to move back above 0.

Third, the Erlanger Crossover Spread (EC) Spread is at -6.24 from -1.47 last week.

Last, the Erlanger Trend Direction (ETD) remains in rally from downtrend as it is now green in the lower half.

So what is an investor to do here? We would recommend to stay with strong stocks and begin to nibble on weaker stocks in rally mode on the ETD. Several indicators remain weak which is why we adjusted how we add to positions. Begin to build a shopping list of new ideas to buy in addition to nibbling on really weak days.


Market Matters:

Futures Giving Back Some Of Yesterday's Gains

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck: none of note:.

Secondaries on deck: ATO CUB I NCLH NDLS SJW.

Filings After The Close: ATO WRTC  I common stock, EYPT mixed shelf offering.

Courtesy of IPO Financial

Earnings From After the Close: none of note.

Surprises:  LZB +0.04 , VEEV +0.03 , GBDC +0.02 , SMTC +0.02 , BOX +0.01 , TLYS +0.01.

Misses: GES (0.03), DSGX (0.02) .


Lower Guidance

Mixed Guidance: IIIV SMTC TLYS VEEV.

Strong Guidance:.

News After The Close:

Dell (DVMT) reported after the close that they were compromised and hackers stole personal data.

What’s Happening This Morning:

U.S. futures: S&P -6.25, Dow Jones -35, NDX -30.25 and Russell 2000 -5 with fair values HIGHER CUTTING WORSENING LOSSES. Asia lower and Europe higher.

Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 119.53 with yields lower since Wednesday morning. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Wednesday: All Sectors higher led by Services, Technology, Industrials and Healthcare.

Weakest Sectors Wednesday: None but Utilities were flat.

One Month Winners: Services, Healthcare and Technology..

Three Month Winners: Utilities

Six Month Winners: Healthcare and Utilities.

Twelve Month Winners: Healthcare, Services and Conglomerates

Year To Date Winners: Healthcare, Services, Conglomerates and Utilities.

Earnings Ahead: (sorted by Market Cap and only most impactful and notables listed)

Earnings Expected After The Close: HPQ WDAY VNW PANW SPLK PVH GME AMBA .

Earnings Due Friday Morning: BIG SFUN CTRN.

Rags & Mags:

Five Things To Know Before You Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)

Deutsche Bank (DB) offices raided in Germany over money laundering. (WSJ )

Crude Oil Drops Under $50 For First Time Since October 2017. (WSJ)

President Trump renews auto tariff threat. (Bloomberg)

Don't Count on the Fed Saving Stocks Again (Bloomberg)

Resilient Russian Oil Companies Give Putin Leverage With OPEC. (Bloomberg)

Trump’s night-owl calls to Roger Stone in 2016 draw scrutiny in Mueller probe. (The Washington Post)

Bond Market Signals Weakening Case for Interest Rate Increases. (The New York Times)

Earnings Reported This Morning:

Surprises:  TECD +0.85 , TITN +0.13 , ANF +0.12 , HMLP +0.07 , DLTR +0.04 , DAVA +0.04 , YETI +0.03 , KIRK +0.02 , EXPR +0.01 , TD +0.01.


Misses:  AMWD (0.27), CM (0.04)

Lower Guidance: EXPR.

Mixed Guidance: KIRK.

Strong Guidance: DAVA TECD TITN YETI.

Date Points:

Yesterday saw 2368 stocks rise and 570 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2436 rise and 660 fall.

The SP 500 is still below its 50 day simple moving average and its 200 day simple moving average (2762.39). The Russell 2000 is still below its 50 day simple moving exponential average and 200 day simple moving average.

The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to cash last Wednesday morning (11/21). For a move to cash, the 10DMA needs to have two days in row below -200.

YTD 36% (-3%) of stocks are higher and 61% (+1) are lower. Updated 11/23/18 close with next update on 11/26/18.

Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.

Technical Screen Of The Day:

Today we look at stocks that saw their 5 day moving average cross above the 20 day moving average  from Wednesday’s Close. We are only looking at market caps above $10 billion. We also have included some proprietary data from Erlanger Chart Room.

Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc. 


Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

October Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.4% from 0.2%.

Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10;30 a.m. EDT.


Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.

At the same time, Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester and Chicago President Charles Evans speak. Coincidence?

Conferences & Analyst Meetings:

Analyst Meetings: DGX NR CVNA ACIW T.

Sellside Conferences:

Credit Suisse Annual Technology, Media and Telecom Conference (11/26-11/29)

Evercore ISI HealthCONx (11/27-11/29)

Piper Jafray Healthcare Conference (11/27-11/29)

Credit Suisse Annual Industrials Conference (11/27-11/29)

Deutsche Bank dbAccess Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Corporate Day (11/29).

RBC Small Cap Conference (11/29)

Benchmark Discovery 1 on 1 Conference (11/29)

M&A  Activity And Credible Rumors of Note Overnight:

Former Qualcomm (QCOM) Chairman still interested in potential purchase of Qualcomm (QCOM).

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
Goldman Sachs AHEXY
Morgan Stanley MCD
Deutsche Bank
Citigroup CC Merrill Lynchp PPG TRGP
Merrill Lynch
Wachovia/Wells Fargo
Credit Suisse BITA
Banc of America
Piper Jaffray
Raymond James
Sun Trust RH VRTU
Moffet Nathanson
Robert W. Baird
Telsey Advisory
Loop Capital
Sandler O'Neil
Keefe Bruyette
Cantor Fitzgerald
HSBC Securities
William Blair
BNP Paribas
B. Riley
Brean Murray
JMP Securities
Janney Montgomery
Think Equity
Cantor Fitzgerlad
BMO Capital
Jesup & Lamont
Canaccord Adams
Global Hunter


Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH)
by Superstock Investor


Choice Hotels (CHH) has been range bound for over a year between $75 and $85 a share. The current price is $78.80. Is there value here?

Company Information

Company: Choice Hotels International, Inc.
Sector: Consumer Services
Industry: Hotels & Cruise Lines
Market Cap:  $4,422,313,000


  Price %Gain  
Current Price $76.76    
Price Target $53.73 -30.0%  
Upper Bound $67.17 -12.5%  
Lower Bound $45.67 -40.5%  

Stock data last updated 10/16/2018.

Data provided by QPI, Inc. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. QPI, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.


Articles That Matter:

Deutsche Bank Offices Raided

There is something very wrong at Deutsche Bank (DB). The stock has fallen from $50 to under $10. This morning its offices in Germany were raided as investigators look for money laundering information.

Deutsche Bank