Thursday, November 29, 2018
The Weekly Chart Of The S&P 500
This morning we are updating our look at the S&P 500 via our favorite chart of SPY. Since the close of 11/20 the S&P 500 is higher by 1.97%.
The first thing we notice is that the weekly Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel sees the price just moved into the channel which means that the bias now is neutral.
Second, the Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) is at -2.54 from -17.23 last week. Above 0 is good and below 0 is bad. So currently, it is below zero trying to move back above 0.
Third, the Erlanger Crossover Spread (EC) Spread is at -6.24 from -1.47 last week.
Last, the Erlanger Trend Direction (ETD) remains in rally from downtrend as it is now green in the lower half.
So what is an investor to do here? We would recommend to stay with strong stocks and begin to nibble on weaker stocks in rally mode on the ETD. Several indicators remain weak which is why we adjusted how we add to positions. Begin to build a shopping list of new ideas to buy in addition to nibbling on really weak days.
Futures Giving Back Some Of Yesterday's Gains
In After Hours Trading
IPOs on deck: none of note:.
Secondaries on deck: ATO CUB I NCLH NDLS SJW.
Filings After The Close: ATO WRTC I common stock, EYPT mixed shelf offering.
Courtesy of IPO Financial
Earnings From After the Close: none of note.
Surprises: LZB +0.04 , VEEV +0.03 , GBDC +0.02 , SMTC +0.02 , BOX +0.01 , TLYS +0.01.
Misses: GES (0.03), DSGX (0.02) .
Mixed Guidance: IIIV SMTC TLYS VEEV.
News After The Close:
Dell (DVMT) reported after the close that they were compromised and hackers stole personal data.
What’s Happening This Morning:
U.S. futures: S&P -6.25, Dow Jones -35, NDX -30.25 and Russell 2000 -5 with fair values HIGHER CUTTING WORSENING LOSSES. Asia lower and Europe higher.
Gold, silver and copper higher. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures higher. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and lower vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 119.53 with yields lower since Wednesday morning. Prices as of 7:55 a.m. EDT.
Top Sectors Wednesday: All Sectors higher led by Services, Technology, Industrials and Healthcare.
Weakest Sectors Wednesday: None but Utilities were flat.
One Month Winners: Services, Healthcare and Technology..
Three Month Winners: Utilities
Six Month Winners: Healthcare and Utilities.
Twelve Month Winners: Healthcare, Services and Conglomerates
Year To Date Winners: Healthcare, Services, Conglomerates and Utilities.
Earnings Ahead: (sorted by Market Cap and only most impactful and notables listed)
Earnings Expected After The Close: HPQ WDAY VNW PANW SPLK PVH GME AMBA .
Earnings Due Friday Morning: BIG SFUN CTRN.
Rags & Mags:
Five Things To Know Before You Start Your Day. (Bloomberg)
Deutsche Bank (DB) offices raided in Germany over money laundering. (WSJ )
Crude Oil Drops Under $50 For First Time Since October 2017. (WSJ)
President Trump renews auto tariff threat. (Bloomberg)
Don't Count on the Fed Saving Stocks Again (Bloomberg)
Resilient Russian Oil Companies Give Putin Leverage With OPEC. (Bloomberg)
Trump’s night-owl calls to Roger Stone in 2016 draw scrutiny in Mueller probe. (The Washington Post)
Bond Market Signals Weakening Case for Interest Rate Increases. (The New York Times)
Earnings Reported This Morning:
Surprises: TECD +0.85 , TITN +0.13 , ANF +0.12 , HMLP +0.07 , DLTR +0.04 , DAVA +0.04 , YETI +0.03 , KIRK +0.02 , EXPR +0.01 , TD +0.01.
Misses: AMWD (0.27), CM (0.04)
Lower Guidance: EXPR.
Mixed Guidance: KIRK.
Strong Guidance: DAVA TECD TITN YETI.
Yesterday saw 2368 stocks rise and 570 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 2436 rise and 660 fall.
The SP 500 is still below its 50 day simple moving average and its 200 day simple moving average (2762.39). The Russell 2000 is still below its 50 day simple moving exponential average and 200 day simple moving average.
The QPI10 Day Moving Average of Breadth (10DMA) moved to cash last Wednesday morning (11/21). For a move to cash, the 10DMA needs to have two days in row below -200.
YTD 36% (-3%) of stocks are higher and 61% (+1) are lower. Updated 11/23/18 close with next update on 11/26/18.
Courtesy of Quantitative Partners, Inc.
Technical Screen Of The Day:
Today we look at stocks that saw their 5 day moving average cross above the 20 day moving average from Wednesday’s Close. We are only looking at market caps above $10 billion. We also have included some proprietary data from Erlanger Chart Room.
Courtesy of Phil Erlanger Research, Inc.
Weekly Jobless Claims are due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT.
October Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 0.4% from 0.2%.
Weekly Natural Gas Inventories are due out at 10;30 a.m. EDT.
Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes are due out at 2:00 p.m. EDT.
At the same time, Federal Reserve Cleveland President Loretta Mester and Chicago President Charles Evans speak. Coincidence?
Conferences & Analyst Meetings:
Analyst Meetings: DGX NR CVNA ACIW T.
Credit Suisse Annual Technology, Media and Telecom Conference (11/26-11/29)
Evercore ISI HealthCONx (11/27-11/29)
Piper Jafray Healthcare Conference (11/27-11/29)
Credit Suisse Annual Industrials Conference (11/27-11/29)
Deutsche Bank dbAccess Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Corporate Day (11/29).
RBC Small Cap Conference (11/29)
Benchmark Discovery 1 on 1 Conference (11/29)
M&A Activity And Credible Rumors of Note Overnight:
Former Qualcomm (QCOM) Chairman still interested in potential purchase of Qualcomm (QCOM).
|JP Morgan||PTR CEO||EQNR DKS|
|Citigroup CC Merrill Lynchp||PPG||TRGP|
|Banc of America|
|Stifel||R OHI GEN CTRE|
|Sun Trust RH||VRTU|
|Robert W. Baird|
|Jesup & Lamont|
Choice Hotels International, Inc. (CHH)
by Superstock Investor
Deutsche Bank Offices Raided
There is something very wrong at Deutsche Bank (DB). The stock has fallen from $50 to under $10. This morning its offices in Germany were raided as investigators look for money laundering information.
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