Superstock Investor
Morning Briefing

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

Morning Matters:

S&P 500 Timing Chart

This morning we are updating our look at the S&P 500 via our favorite chart.

[Image 1]

The first thing we notice is that the weekly Displaced Moving Average (DMA) Channel is below price which means that the bias is positive. In other words, it makes sense to be long.

Second, the Erlanger Volume Swing (EVS) is at 5.98 from 9.41 last week and 0.16 two weeks ago. Above 0 is good and below 0 is bad. So currently, it is back above zero and holding at that level.

Third, the Erlanger Crossover Spread (EC) Spread is at -2.02 from -0.68 and 0.12 two weeks ago.

Last, the Erlanger Trend Direction (ETD) moves to uptrend from pullback mode as it is now green from red in the upper half.

So what is an investor to do here? We would recommend to stay with stocks and move from not being a buyer currently to a selective buyer. Only EC Spread is a concern right now which is why we are adjusting how we add to positions.


Market Matters:

Futures Higher This Morning After Fading Tuesday

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck Arco Platform (ARCE) Capital Bancorp (CBNK) Entasis Therapeutics (ETTX) Survey Monkey (SVMK). Secondaries of note AINC ANAB CBNK CNP CONE FPAY .

Filings after close .

data courtesy of IPO Financial

In After Hours Trading: SURPRISES CTAS +.13 KBH +.10 NKE +.04 AIR +.02. FLAT: MISSED: none.

Lower Guidance: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

What's Happening This Morning

U.S. futures: S&P +5.75 Dow Jones +43, NDX +18 and Russell 2000 +2.80 with fair values lower adding to gains. Asia higher and Europe mixed.

Gold, silver and copper modestly lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is lower. $ is higher vs Euro, higher vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury price 118.55 with yields higher since last Friday. Prices as of 9:30 a.m. EDT.

Top Sectors Conglomerates, Materials and Services.

Weak Sectors Utilities and Consumer Goods.

One month winners Healthcare,Consumer Goods, Services and Technology.

Three Month Winners Healthcare, Consumer Goods, Services and Technology.

Six Month Winners Conglomerates, Services and Technology.

One Year Winners All except for Utilities.

Year To Date Conglomerates, Healthcare and Services.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by avg. trade volume): FUL BBBY CMTL.

Earnings due tomorrow morning: ACN CCL MKC CAG CMD SCHL RAD ANGO.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

Federal Reserve expected to raise interest rates and more on the horizon. (CNBC)

Senate Judiciary Committee to vote on Kavanaugh one day after testimony. (CNBC)

Goldman says no way to $100 oil. (Bloomberg)

India decides not to buy oil from Iran. Will China? (Bloomberg)

Trump throws globalism under the bus at U.N. (NYT)

As debt rises, U.S. could spend more on debt than military. (NYT)

Slow wage growth due to more benefits. (NYT)

Trade deal may proceed without Canada. (WSJ)

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported This Morning: SURPRISES KMX +.01. FLAT: MISSED: WOR -.10 OMN -.04.


Lower Guidance: .

Current Morning missing: .

Mixed Guidance: .

Positive Guidance: .

Data Points

Yesterday saw 1255 stocks rise and 1638 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1491 rise and 1484 fall.

The SP 500 is above its 50 day exponential moving average and is above its 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is above its 50 day moving exponential average and is above 200 day exponential moving average.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth moved to cash last week. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is still invested.

YTD 53% of stocks are higher and 47% are lower. Updated 9/21/18 close.


August New Home Sales is due out at 10:00 a.m. EDT and is expected to rise to 630,000 from 627,000.

Weekly Crude Oil Inventories due out at 10:30 a.m. EDT. Yesterday the API Petroleum Institute


The Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) is out with their latest announcement with interest rate update and a rate increase is expected.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Meetings, Conference Calls or Announcements of note, PRU ATIS ATNM CRM BPY BBU.

CIBC Institutional Conference.

Berenberg & Goldman Sachs German Corporate Conference.

Conference of Note

Denver Gold Forum

European Conference on Optical Communication

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan    
Goldman Sachs MTB  
Morgan Stanley LNG COG
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup CC Merrill Lynchp    
Merrill Lynch   PAYC SYF
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse    
Banc of America    
Jefferies   CHEF
Raymond James    
B. Riley VIAB  
Piper Jaffray    
Nomura   DWDP
Moffet Nathanson    
Robert W. Baird    
Sun Trust RH   MANH
Sandler O'Neil    
Keefe Bruyette    
Cantor Fitzgerald    
HSBC Securities    
William Blair    
BNP Paribas    
B. Riley    
Brean Murray    
JMP Securities    
Janney Montgomery  
Think Equity    
Cantor Fitzgerlad    
BMO Capital  
Jesup & Lamont    
Canaccord Adams    
Global Hunter    



Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

MercadoLibre, Inc. (MELI)
by Superstock Investor


Mercardo Libre (MELI) ran to $417 in March but has since pulled back to $319.62. The company has grown sharply. The question is can the stock price move higher back towards $400 or is valuation stuck?

Company Information

Company: MercadoLibre, Inc.
Sector: Technology: Software_Serv
Industry: Internet Software_Serv
Market Cap:  $15,120,825,600


  Price %Gain  
Current Price $322.26    
Price Target $306.15 -5.0%  
Upper Bound $382.68 18.8%  
Lower Bound $260.22 -19.3%  

Stock data last updated 09/17/2018.

Data provided by QPI, Inc. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. QPI, Inc. is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.


Articles That Matter:

Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) To Increase Rates Today

The FOMC will announcement today at 2:00 p.m. EDT that they are going to raise interest rates. It will be the third increase of the year. One more is expected in December. Key will be guidance about next year.

FOMC Preview.