Superstock Investor
Morning Briefing

Friday, October 31, 2014

Market Matters:

Futures El Fuego

In After Hours Trading

IPOs on deck this week include . Secondaries on deck of note .

In After Hours Trading (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]):TSO+.91, SAM+.47, NEM+.34, EXPE+.19, EGN+.18, LYV+.16, SGEN+.11, MELI+.10, OIS+.09, EMN+.09, ESS+.06, WU+.06, LNKD+.05, PSA+.05, FLR+.05, GPRO+.04, SBUX+.03, CCI+.03, MYL+.03, FLT+.03, CXP+.03, MHK+.02, CPT+.02, HME+.02, GRPN+.02, EGO-.03, TRMB-.05.

IPO Financial provides our capital raise data.

What's Happening This Morning

US futures: S&P +22, Dow Jones +187 and NDX +59 with fair values lower adding to the open. Asia and Europe higher. Copper higher with silver and gold lower. WTI Crude and Brent Oil Futures lower. Natural Gas is higher. $ is higher vs Euro, flat vs. Pound and higher vs. Yen. US 10 year Treasury yield +3. Prices as of 7:55 a.m.

Earnings Expected

Earnings due after the close (by market cap descending): none of note.

Due Monday morning (by market cap descending): S, SYY, L, EEP, AMG, CNA, CHD, ARE, SNH, BWP, HNT, AMH, SHO.

Rags & Mags: Inside Wall Street

USA Today: Japan ease stocks global stocks. Subway new deal for $6 includes drink and chips which will pressure fast foods concepts like Panera (PNRA).

Reported Earnings This Morning

Reported Earnings This Morning (Best to Worst absolute beats/misses [+.02 or greater/-.02 or worse]): SNE+31.82, AON+.17, OSK+.14, DRQ+.10, ITT+.06, COMM+.05, GWR+.04, WY+.03, COL+.03, CBOE+.03, NWL+.03, LM+.02, HLT+.01, POM+.00, D-.02, XLS-.02, BUD-.09.

not reported yet: CVX, CLX, XOM, MSG, MMP, MOG.A, NS, PNW, SPR, TE, USM.

Data Points

Yesterday saw 2205 stocks rise and 1161 fall on the NYSE. NASDAQ saw 1702 rise and 991 fall.

The SP 500 back above its 50 day exponential moving average and is now above the 200 day exponential moving average. The Russell 2000 is back above its 50 day moving exponential average and its 200 day exponential moving average as well.

The 10 day spread moving average of breadth is now back to invested. The Madison Market Timing Indicator is now invested.

YTD 3446 (-171) stocks are higher for the year and 3435 (+167) are lower. Updated 10/13/14 Close. Prior Update 10/1/14 close.

Economics

September Personal Income is due out at 8:30 a.m. EDT and are expected to remain at 0.3%. Then at 9:45 a.m. EDT, October Chicago PMI is due out and expected to remain at 60.5. Last, at 9:55 a.m. EDT Michigan Sentiment is expected to come out at 86.4%.

Politico

Federal Reserve San Francisco President Williams speaks before the open.

Conference & Analyst Meetings

Analyst and investor meetings RPRX BMY.

Conference of Note

Fort Lauderdale Boat Show.

M & A News

Key Upgrades and Downgrades

Firm Upgrades Downgrades
JP Morgan   CACI
Goldman Sachs    
Morgan Stanley    
Deutsche Bank    
Citigroup    
Merrill Lynch    
Wachovia/Wells Fargo    
Credit Suisse   MEP
Banc of America    
UBS    
Key Banc    
Needham    
Jefferies    
Stifel COTY NKA
Nomura    
Raymond James MHK  
Piper Jaffray    
Societe General ALU  
Keefe Bruyette    
Friedman Billings    
Robert W. Baird    
Brean Capital    
Sun Trust RH    
Topeka Capital Markets    
RBC    
Longbow    
Cantor Fitzgerald    
CIBC    
Dresnder    
Key Banc    
HSBC Securities    
Cowen  
William Blair    
BNP Paribas    
Nomura    
Kaufman  
Brean Murray    
JMP Securities    
Wedbush    
Argus    
CLSA    
BB&T    
ING    
Roth    
Janney Montgomery  
Susquehanna    
Think Equity    
Merriman    
Cantor Fitzgerlad    
BMO Capital  
Benchmark    
Jesup & Lamont    
Macquarie    
Canaccord Adams    
Evercore    
MKM    
Bernstein    
CLSN    
Guggenheim    
Auriga    
Stephens    
BTIG    
Global Hunter    

 

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Today's Superstock Investor Stock Scorecard:

STARBUCKS CORP (SBUX)
by Superstock Investor


 

Starbucks (SBUX) reported earnings last night after the close. Estimates were $0.74 and the company reported $0.77. Same store sales growth grew less than 6% for the first time in 18 quarters. They also issued downside guidance. The stock was below the price target and now is more below the price target. It is on our shopping list as a potential buy.

Company Information

Company: STARBUCKS CORP
Sector: Consumer Discretionary
Industry: Restaurants
Market Cap:  $56,708 (Millions)

Targets

  Price %Gain  
Current Price $75.29    
Price Target $88.58 17.6%  
Upper Bound $101.86 35.3%  
Lower Bound $77.02 2.3%  

Fundamental Variables

P/E Ratio 22.2    
Sales Growth 11.6%    

Valuation Variables

  Past Current Future
Profitability (CFROI) 11.0% 16.0% 12.4%
Growth (in Assets) 8.2% 7.9% 7.8%
 
Color Legend
Company
Rating
Company
Rank
Excellent Top 10%
Good 11- 30%
Average 31- 70%
Fair 71- 90%
Poor Bottom 10%

Stock data last updated 21-JAN-14.

Data provided by Ativo Research LLC. All information provided "as is" for informational purposes only, not intended for trading purposes or advice. Ativo Research LLC is not liable for any informational errors, incompleteness, or delays, or for any actions taken in reliance on information contained herein. By accessing this page, you agree not to redistribute the information found herein.
Altivo Research Value+Plus® Release 2007

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The Madison Letter:

Weekly Update
by Staff Writers

We are invested on our overall Market Call. Since inception, our overall timing return is 71.49% versus 40.39% on the S&P 500 for excess return of 31.10%.

Madison scores on the major indexes are now mostly between +18 and +8. With a gap open this morning, we are getting overbought and setting up for a potential pullback. We need confirmation.

There is now one open position, a buy on TRF. We added a buy on iShares Core S&P 500 Index Fund ETF (IVV) and took gains on Tuesday 9/2. Recent open and closed ideas are now in the second table. New sells will be forthcoming as we find a near term top.

We began to offer a buy and sell strategy via our Madison Market Timing Indicator at the beginning of April of 2007. There are now 24 open and closed winning trades to 8 closed losing trades with our market timing results. We were left with one long position TRF from our original buys before launching with Uncommon Widsom Daily. This column replaces the Morning Matters on Fridays.

[Image 1]
Index Current
Status
Date
Open
Price
Open
Current
Price
Current
Rank
BUY
Point
Neutral
Point
SELL
Point
Details
S&P 500 1994.65 5.11 1841 1932 2023

DJIA 17195.42 16.03 15986 16557 17329

COMPQ 4566.14 13.68 4131 4389 4648

NASDAQ 100 4100.64 12.39 3714 3953 4191

VIX 14.52 -9.49 10.20 18.42 26.65

 

Other Open Signals Long
Short
Date
Open
Price
Open
Current
Price
Date
Closed
Price
Closed
Result %Result Details
IVV Long 08/6/14 193.39 201.80 8/29/14 201.80 8.41 4.35% Closed
TRF Long 04/18/11 22.58 11.22 -11.36 -50.31% Open

Year to Date performance of the Madison Letter:

We have moved to a new format highlighting all trades since inception. This will provide complete disclosure of all winning and losing trades. To visit go to the home page of www.themadisonletter.com.

Long Term Bull Market:

 

We entered a bear market in October 2007 and now have officially exited it as of May 2009. Alpha will be generated on the long side with a series of rallies and then pullbacks. Currently, we are in uptrend mode.

M Cubed Score

The Federal Reserve has been cutting rates as of Tuesday, September 18,2007 and our M Cubed Score is now a buy from sell. The yield curve is very positive with a spread of 183 basis points between the 2 year and 10 year (as of this update) while monetary growth annual rate of change is 3% (as of this update). The easing game is on again with QE3 thanks to recent economic data there will be no complete taper until late 2014 at the earliest. Expect interest rate rises in the second half of 2015.

Aggressive Trader Comments

We continue the uptrend phase with an positive bias. Sell the rips and buy the dips until the current bull ends.

 

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Articles That Matter:

Bank of Japan (BOJ) To The Rescue & Russia And Ukraine Have A Gas Deal

Futures are on fire this morning. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) came to the rescue again last minute with a new stimulus measures and adding asset purchases for the first time in a year and a half.

BOJ Action

In other news, Russia and Ukraine have a new supply deal. This guarantees that gas flows to Europe this winter.

Russian Gas

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